EDIT:
I think this graph is way better addressed in my latest on elop Effect. Read it here.
Points made here are valid too, though.

I would like to start by saying that I hate graphs. They can be used to show anomalies, they can be used to show trends…
…or they can be used to hide those. Like, unfortunately, in case of Mr. Tomi Ahonen. In his recent blog post [1] Tomi Ahonen shows us once again this wonderful image:

It’s three mobile phone manufacturers, amount of sold smartphones per quarter. He has been using this a lot to prove “Elop Effect” (once again, already pointed to be FUD). But the graph is so nice! It REALLY LOOKS LIKE THAT!!! And in his words:

Just before the Elop Effect, at the end of Q4 of last year, Nokia’s market share was 29%. Now, the latest quarter for which we have data, Q3 of 2011, Nokia’s market share has crashed to 14%. Yes. In a very real sense, Nokia has voluntarily gifted away more than half of its market!” [2]

Now this sounds creepy. As I pointed out earlier, Tomi Ahonen was insisting that market share matters and alerting market share loss of Nokia before February 2011. And after he stops talking about increasing sales numbers for 2010, he starts talking about market share in 2011. Why is he so afraid of market share in 2010? Because this graph is hiding the truth.

So I did a graph of my own. I used the same figures as in Tomi Ahonen’s graph (at least Nokia numbers he uses are valid from quarterly results) BUT added “other manufacturers” to fix the market share he refers to (also valid from Nokia results). We have to understand – market share he refers to is “all phones” – i.e. smart phones and feature phones. Lines he uses are smartphones only. this “Others” I needed to add is a hypothetical entity at best and messes up Samsung and Apple market shares. But it sets Nokia sales into correct market share and shows us the actual results including the growth of industry. So how bad does Elop effect look in form of market share?

I have used the same numbers he uses, both for market share and for amount of sold devices. The graph is accurate, what comes to Nokia. Now please note, the arrows from bubbles land to same places as in Tomi Ahonen’s graph. Elop started when market share had declined for almost full quarter and announcement of new strategy did nothing to the decline. Except in Q2 2011, but Tomi Ahonen insists Q1 2011 results were already ruined by “Elop Effect”. And they have to be or Q1 2011 would be ruined without it and his whole theory would be FUD.

No wait, it is FUD. My bad.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/what-happens-now-to-nokia-lumia-and-windows-phone-after-microsoft-throws-nokia-under-the-bus.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/12/calculating-the-elop-effect-hes-already-destroyed-a-company-the-size-of-oracle-and-profits-the-size-.html

Guideline for commenting:
I hate the way Tomi Ahonen deletes criticizing comments from his blog. However, I plan to follow three of his principles: I’ll delete comments that are

  1. Personal insults to someone
  2. Duplicates
  3. Spam

In addition, if you wish to challenge my previous posts, please comment to those.

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