First milestone in the analyst contest

Remember I said there was a bet between Tomi Ahonen and Ben Bajarin and I have promised to remind them? (Tomi says Apple Watch is a flop and will die, Ben says it is not.)

We now have Christmas Quarter sales from 2015 and 2016 for comparison by Strategy Analysts. [1] Apple increased sales with Apple Watch 2, although very slightly:
apple_smartwatch_q42015_q42016

Which means that Apple Watch 2nd edition outsold 1st edition and Tomi is wrong in first half here:
2ndeditionapplewatchsellsless3rdcancelled

This comparison is not fair, though. First generation Apple Watch was launched at the beginning of the year 2015 and it was having very limited distribution at first. Apple Watch 2 was launched later in the year so one can easily defend Tomi’s stand saying that it was poised to get better sales on Christmas Quarter than 1st generation Apple Watch.
For the same reason we really cannot compare “first quarter sales” of both watches to each other. It just would not be comparing apples to apples (pun intended).

Only number that we could use that would be completely fair would be after we have 2nd generation Apple Watch sales for full 12 month period. Then if Apple Watch 2 has sold more in that 12-month period than first generation Apple Watch sold on each and every 12-month period of its sales (prior to launch of Apple Watch 2), then we can say that Apple Watch undeniably did not sell less than Apple Watch 1.

So we have to look at this early November this year. *sigh*
Although it may be that Apple announces 3rd generation Apple Watch by then and Tomi has promised he will then admit publicly he was wrong:
if3rdeditionapplewatchnotflop
tomiwilladmitnotiflop

REFERENCES:

[1] https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/news/strategy-analytics-press-releases/strategy-analytics-press-release/2017/02/01/strategy-analytics-apple-watch-returns-global-smartwatch-shipments-to-1-percent-growth-in-q4-2016