Now this is awkward

NokiaMob had contacted Counterpoint for their estimated shipments of Nokia/HMD smartphones.
Here’s what they got:

  • Nokia market share for full year 2019 was 0.87%.
  • (Market share is down from 1.17% in 2018.)
  • Nokia/HMD shipped 12.9 million smartphones during full year 2019.
  • (Number of shipped phones was down compared to 17.59 million in 2018.)

Now compare to this:

for 2019 I think Nokia will be challenging Huawei for the Top 3 position. Nokia might be at around 7% to 8% market share which in 2019 will mean something around 135 to 150 million smartphones sold globally.

From 2019 the ‘bounce back’ will be completed and I think its very likely that Samsung will still the biggest smartphone maker and Apple number 2, but the race will be on for number 3 and Nokia as FIH-HMD will be perceived as one of the strongest competitors in that market heading into the next decade.

–Tomi Ahonen, May 20, 2016 [1]

Tomi’s numbers are a literal order of magnitude off. Or like he likes to phrase it:

That error is one of the biggest errors in any forecast in mobile ever made, at 1,063 percent

Just to beat the dead horse a bit: If we look back at Tomi’s forecasts, Nokia has done as Tomi said it would and indeed is selling over 20 models. So he can’t even say it’s because Nokia has done wrong choices.