The Tomi Ahonen corrective encyclopedia

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NOTE: This post was updated March 31st 2015
This blog has long list of items that try to correct the  – frankly put – lies of Tomi Ahonen. This is the index page. So if you came here to check for some claim of Tomi Ahonen, this is the right place to start.
Any content from this blog can be copied freely.

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

1. The “Elop Effect”

1.1. Credit ratings of Nokia

1.2. The Burning Platform memo and Tomi Ahonen

1.3. Elop Effect on Nokia compared to Blackberry (formerly RIM)

1.4. Elop Effect compared to other smartphone manufacturers

1.5. Elop Effect in Kantar statistics

1.6. Why Elop Effect could not have been the reason of crash of Nokia

1.7. Market share crash of 2010 and what it means in practice

1.8. The “Promise of 1:1 transition from Symbian to Windows Phone”

1.9. Estimation of the lost sales caused by Elop Effect

2. Sales Boycott of Nokia

2.1. Global operator boycott of Nokia due to Microsoft Skype acquisition

2.2. CEO Stephen Elop admitting the Skype-based boycott

2.3. Operator boycott as seen in Finland

2.4. Evidence of the global operator boycott

2.5 Global operator boycott of Windows Phone 8 devices

2.6 Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates statement about mobile strategy

3. Nokia before 2011 (Symbian-powered Nokia)

3.1. Review by Tomi Ahonen from January 2011

3.2. The year 2010 Nokia compared to its competitors – size, growth, etc.

3.3. Year 2010 market shares of Nokia

3.4. Tomi Ahonen rewrite of Nokia market share history

3.5. The “expert consensus” of Nokia growth pattern from year 2010

3.6. Nokia’s feature phone to smart phone transition turnaround

3.7. “Nokia was winning with Symbian”

3.8. Nokia ex-employees interviews – History of Nokia ca. 2003-2011

3.9. NTT DoCoMo as Nokia’s Symbian partner

3.10. Ovi Store

3.11. Some numbers from book of Jorma Ollila

4. MeeGo

4.1. The magical Der Stern review

4.2. Nokia 950, Meltemi and related

4.3. How many N9 did Nokia sell?

4.4. Other sources about MeeGo and the state of it.

4.5. Reviews of Nokia N9

5. Nokia Lumia

5.1. High return rates of Lumia phones

5.2. Low resales value of Lumia phones

5.3. The rejection of Lumia as seen in Yankee survey

5.4. The list of 13 systematic faults of Nokia Lumia

5.5. The 101 reasons (or 121 reasons or 125 reasons) not to buy Windows Phone

5.6. Symbian user conversion to Windows Phone

5.7. Osborne effect of Windows 7.x phones and the severity of it

5.8. Lumia’s sold at loss

5.9. The marketing push Nokia spent on Lumia line

5.10. Additional lies about the Lumia phones

6. China Mobile

6.1 China market numbers as presented by Tomi Ahonen

6.2. China mobile rejection of Lumia and Nokia 801T

6.3. China mobile rejection of Lumia part II

6.4. China mobile rejection of Lumia continued

6.5. Nokia Meego as China Mobile default operating system

7. Tomi Ahonen biography

7.1. Biography of Tomi Ahonen

7.2. Most influential by Forbes

7.3. Forecast accuracy

7.4. Influence of Tomi Ahonen towards public

7.5. Professionality

7.6. Forecast accuracy

8. Miscellaneous

8.1. Touch screen misinformation

8.2. Claim of Nokia having sold its mobile ad unit

8.3. The size of Nokia Money, the service

8.4. Sales price of Nokia Headquarters building

8.5. 25 million dollar bonus of CEO Stephen Elop for selling the Nokia Devices and Servies unit

8.6. Nokia X sales numbers

1. The “Elop Effect”

1.1. Credit ratings of Nokia

Nokia’s credit rating was downgraded 12 times during Elop’s tenure. According to Tomi Ahonen the reason was Nokia’s operator/carrier relations and those were mentioned every time, usually as the biggest reason or as the only reason. This is his stand.
None of those ratings mention Nokia’s carrier relations. Not a single one. I listed this as the top 1 lie from Tomi Ahonen in the past.
Full story about this is here: (visit link)

1.2. The Burning Platform memo and Tomi Ahonen

Despite what he has written about the Burning Platform Memo later, Tomi Ahonen agreed with the memo when it was originally published. He even said this:

I CLEARLY stated in my blog that i AGREE with the sentiment of the supposed Elop ‘memo’ but I find several statements in it erroneous or bizarre – I am of course deleting all comments that suggest I am somehow in ‘denial’ about Nokia’s troubles and comments that suggest I think Nokia is doing just fine.
The rules on this blog are clear, that you have to read the article before you are allowed to comment. Anyone who is not adult enough to understand basic English when I clearly both in opening to the blog – and in the conclusion of hte article I repeat myself, saying about the supposed memo that its ‘sentiment is right’. I only take offense to the errors and bizarre issues in the memo. All who try to waste the time of my regular readers, by posting comments that were not related to the actual blog article as I wrote it, are now deleted.

Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

1.3. Elop Effect on Nokia compared to Blackberry (formerly RIM)

Considering the claim of Tomi Ahonen that Nokia was in excellent shape in 2010 and “Elop effect” ruined it, it is rather interesting to compare it to another well-performing company from 2010 – Blackberry. They have almost identical curve what comes to them going down.
This has been addressed twice. More detailed version is here: (visit link)
whereas more descriptive comparison is here: (visit link)

1.4. Elop Effect compared to other smartphone manufacturers

Blackberry is not the only one to mysteriously being affected by “Nokia-only” Elop Effect. Also several Android manufacturers took hit. It makes one question how come Elop was able to sink those too?
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

1.5. Elop Effect in Kantar statistics

According to Tomi Ahonen Kantar statistics show crash from 2010 to 2011, due to “Elop Effect” (i.e. Windows Phone strategy announcement). Interestingly, the very data he uses tells us that Nokia market share in UK (the market he uses as an example) drops from 33% to 23% to 12%…
…before February 2011. So in fact Nokia lost almost two thirds of the market before they even had announced a new strategy!
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

1.6. Why Elop Effect could not have been the reason of crash of Nokia

As can be guessed from previous, Nokia was already losing market share in 2010, way before Windows Phone strategy was announced. However, the growth of smartphone market as a whole kept Nokia’s sales numbers still increasing, although way slower than competition. The real drop happens in Q1 2011 when market growth halted. Conveniently, mid-February strategy change actually cannot affect sales of Q1 2011, which means that quarter shows the unit sales would have crashed even without the strategy change.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

1.7. Market share crash of 2010 and what it means in practice

Nokia lost over 25% of its market share in six months during 2010. That is – as Tomi Ahonen said early 2011 – pretty much unprecedented. Tomi Ahonen had a suitable comparison for it. He puts Toyota (largest car manufacturer at the time) to lose quarter of its market share:
If Toyota lost one quarter of its market, and instead of selling 8.4 million cars, they would only sell 6.3 million cars. Toyota would fall behind General Motors, AND Renault-Nissan AND even behind Volkswagen Group, landing in 4th place, just ahead of Ford Motor Company.
That’s the size of the crash Nokia had in 2010 and it is not something that gets automatically fixed, either.
I have explained what market share (and loss of it) means in practice. It’s here: (visit link)

1.8. The “Promise of 1:1 transition from Symbian to Windows Phone”

Tomi Ahonen has been (in increasing amount) referring to “Elop did promise his new Windows strategy would achieve a 1-to-1 transition from Symbian to Windows Phone“. This – of course – is a lie. No such thing was promised. Instead Tomi Ahonen has taken Nokia illustrative graph (clearly labeled with “For illustrative purposes only; Not a forecast”), re-edited it and uses it as “promise Elop gave” to prove his claim. At the same occasion he usually also states that Nokia had three pillars of strategy, which is not true either.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

1.9. Estimation of the lost sales caused by Elop Effect

From the starting points listed so far it probably does not surprise anybody that the estimate Tomi Ahonen has made about damage to Nokia by the Windows Phone strategy is about one order of magnitude too high. The analogy behind it combines multiple falsified data together.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

2. Sales Boycott of Nokia

2.1. Global operator boycott of Nokia due to Microsoft Skype acquisition

In brief, what Tomi Ahonen claims is that “right after Microsoft bought Skype, the Windows based smartphones were put on a sales boycott globally“. Unsurprisingly, claim has no evidence to back it up, far less makes even sense.
Full article about lack of evidence and how much sense it makes is here: (visit link)

2.2. CEO Stephen Elop admitting the Skype-based boycott

Considering there is full evidence (including video record of the actual speech) to counter it, it is amazing that Tomi Ahonen still has energy to claim that “Elop says, the reason carriers hate Windows Phone smartphones is because Microsoft now owns Skype – and Elop tells us some have gone as far to stop selling any Windows smarpthones not just Lumias.
The whole claim is indeed a lie, nothing more.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

2.3. Operator boycott as seen in Finland

Considering Lumia 800 was most sold smartphone in Finland for year 2012, it is interesting that Tomi Ahonen states Finnish operators have previously mentioned “boycott” in use. Of course it is even more interesting when one finds out he is falsifying news articles to prove it.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

2.4. Evidence of the global operator boycott

So Tomi Ahonen says Nokia’s poor sales are a result of sales boycott caused by February 2011 announcement. For sake of argument we can assume the boycott is true…
…but in that case it started prior to February 2011.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

2.5 Global operator boycott of Windows Phone 8 devices

Tomi Ahonen has expanded his boycott claim to cover also Windows Phone 8. Only problem is that we don’t see the boycott actually taking place anywhere.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

2.6 Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates statement about mobile strategy

Very recently (as per time of this post) Tomi Ahonen did similar rewrite of truth to Bill Gates interview as he did earlier to Skype statement of Stephen Elop. Once again, there is a video available.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3. NOKIA BEFORE 2011 (SYMBIAN-POWERED NOKIA)

3.1. Review by Tomi Ahonen from January 2011

Currently Tomi Ahonen is saying that during fourth quarter 2010 Nokia was making a come-back and growing past competition. However, he said totally opposite in January 2011, after Nokia had released fourth quarter results but before Nokia announced Microsoft strategy.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link).

3.2. The year 2010 Nokia compared to its competitors – size, growth, etc.

As just said, currently Tomi Ahonen claims that in 2010 Nokia was “MORE than twice as big as its nearest rivals“, “more than twice as big as Apple and more than four times as big as Samsung” and that “Nokia grew more than its rivals“. However, these can all be seen to be not true from – ironically – his own numbers he handed out in 2010.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.3. Year 2010 market shares of Nokia

Tomi Ahonen remembers to say that prior to Windows Phone strategy Nokia had market share of 90% in Finland and 77% in China. Correct numbers are 67% and 56%, respectively. The essential info here is that Nokia had those market shares in the past, but both had come down during year 2010 when Nokia was still having Symbian/MeeGo based strategy.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.4. Tomi Ahonen rewrite of Nokia market share history

In global scale Tomi Ahonen has the nerve to claim that “Nokia 2009 market share was 39% and in 2010 that declined the normal level to 34%, there was no ‘collapse’ happening during 2010.” As previously mentioned, he reported the collapse himself and it is not from 39% to 34% during full year but from 39% to 28% during 6 months.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.5. The “expert consensus” of Nokia growth pattern from year 2010

Tomi Ahonen often says that “The consensus view of the big analyst houses in year 2010 was that Symbian would continue to dominate the smartphone market”, sometimes saying that consensus reached as far as up to year 2015. Unfortunately, the “consensus” he refers to was not valid even at end of 2010, far less 2011, 2012 or 2013.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.6. Nokia’s feature phone to smart phone transition turnaround

According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia’s transition from feature phones to smart phones turned around and percentage of feature phones compared to smartphones started to increase after February 2011 strategy change. Unfortunately that took place already in 2010.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.7. “Nokia was winning with Symbian”

All of the above have piled up to point that Tomi Ahonen has stated multiple times either that “Nokia was winning” or “Symbian was winning”. That is a combination of the false claims stated above, with some additional twists.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.8. Nokia ex-employees interviews – History of Nokia ca. 2003-2011

In contrast, I have gathered together translation of Finnish articles that were based on interviews of laid-off Nokians. It shows quite a different Nokia than one would understand from posts of Tomi Ahonen.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.9. NTT DoCoMo as Nokia’s Symbian partner

Japanese operator NTT DoCoMo has never sold Nokia phones. They used Symbian OS variant that was not app-wise compatible with Nokia phones.
Unless you ask from Tomi Ahonen who has repeatedly told how important “Symbian partner” NTT DoCoMo was to Nokia.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.10. Ovi Store

According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia’s Ovi Store was having second most apps (only behind Apple’s App Store) and closing the gap before Nokia chnaged its strategy in February 2011.
That is definitely news for both Apple and Google as Android Market was having multiple of the apps Ovi store had and the gap wasn’t closing either.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

3.11. Some numbers from book of Jorma Ollila

The book “Mahdoton Menestys” (biography of Jorma Ollila – ex CEO of Nokia) had few interesting metrics reported in it. Such as Nokia having declining sales, laid off employees etc. and all this before Stephen Elop took the position of CEO. Also: Tomi Ahonen says that Nokia invented the smartphone and started with 100% market share which explains their decreasing market share by “natural erosion”. Book of Jorma Ollila shows also trend of ALL phones (not just smartphones). There should be no “natural erosion” there, yet Nokia suffers the same market share collapse there as it did in smartphones.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

4. MeeGo

4.1. The magical Der Stern review

In words of Tomi Ahonen N9 got amazing review from German magazine:

Understand, this is not a technology magazine, Der Stern is a general weekly newsmagazine like Time in the USA, yet it chose to review a smarpthone not even sold in Germany and so loved it, recommended readers fly to other countries to go get one.

Now this is blatant lie. First of all, Tomi Ahonen claims that Der Stern does not normally do technology reviews, yet the article is in “Digital -> Phones” section of the magazine, just like Lumia 800 review he doesn’t even bother to mention.
The review at no point “recommends readers to fly to other countries to get one“, yet it does say that the phone is worth to take a look at on your next trip to Austria (where Germans travel often, thanks to good highway access).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

4.2. Nokia 950, Meltemi and related

Tomi Ahonen reveals us his incompetence in technology from time to time with his statements on N900 and N950. More specifically: “Because the N9 is currently in production and selling highly profitably (and sister phones such as N950 and N900 have been produced and could be manufactured within weeks of ramp-up time)
Now do understand he is talking about porting N9 Harmattan Swipe UI to N900. That means support for resistive display, different display resolution and QWERTY keyboard – “within weeks of ramp-up time”. Furthermore, he has suggested that Nokia could “release the N900, the N9 and the N950 on Android, like next month!” (which means  in 42 days). Proper time estimates for any of the previous would be in months, not weeks.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

4.3. How many N9 did Nokia sell?

Tomi Ahonen remembers to tell that N9 outsold Lumias in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012. Unfortunately that is not true and he has numbers that are taken from commenters in a web forum. (Yes, from two average Joes.) Real smartphone sales reports do not have room for numbers he provides.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

4.4. Other sources about MeeGo and the state of it.

For those who want to read a bit different review on MeeGo the OS, Finnish site Taskumuro interviewed ex-Nokia employees and got quite different story indeed. It is called “Story of Nokia MeeGo” and short version with link to actual article can be found here: (visit link)

4.5. Nokia N9 reviews

Tomi Ahonen has in multiple occasions claimed that Nokia N9 was rated better than iPhone of the time (and MeeGo OS better than iOS). Too bad that none of the reviews of the time support his views.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5. Nokia Lumia

5.1. High return rates of Lumia phones

Greatest and most long-lasting claim about Lumia line from Tomi Ahonen seems to be that it has “highest return rates of any Nokia smartphone ever”. This is all without a single valid proof. In addition to that it is a very challenging task for any product to gain that record after 2009.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.2. Low resales value of Lumia phones

On his attempt to prove the Lumia line a failure Tomi Ahonen invented claim that Lumia phones have resales value of “already zero”. Unfortunately that is not true on any measurement and easy to verify to be false claim.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.3. The rejection of Lumia as seen in Yankee survey

Another claim form Tomi Ahonen is that Yankee Survey shows that “4 out of 10 rate the Lumia as literally the worst phone possible“. One could make that conclusion. On the other hand one can then also make the conclusion that 3 out of 10 in the same survey rate it the best phone ever – or there is something seriously wrong in the survey itself.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.4. The list of 13 systematic faults of Nokia Lumia

Tomi Ahonen repeatedly says that “Nokia Lumia series has 13 systematic faults why it fails in all markets including the USA“. He presents the list as some universal fact although he is the author of the list. Also: 5 of those 13 items are just plain lies and can be proven such, whereas 4 of those 13 items are just “None of the Lumia phones has HW QWERTY keyboard” put into some form.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.5. The 101 reasons (or 121 reasons or 125 reasons) not to buy Windows Phone

Since there was “101 reasons not to buy Windows Phone” list published in the web, Tomi Ahonen has been referring to it a lot. Please understand he has not made the list, nor am I trying to claim that. But to cut it short:

    • 31 “reasons not to buy” are not true at all.
    • 27 reasons could be somehow qualified as “reason not to buy” (both Windows Phone 7.8 and Windows Phone 8 correct some of those 27).
    • All other reasons (67 of them) are either duplicates or…
      …I’m incapable of finding a proper word. Silly? Try these:

30. Wifi- hotspot and internet tethering not integral features in the OS but need to be provided by manufacturer on a case by case basis.
(Yes, you read it right: there is WiFi hotspot, you can use it, it works fine but since it is “not integral feature in the OS”, this guy refuses to buy the device.)
60. Option to output FM radio to speaker is cleverly hidden.
(You guessed it, he failed the very basic gesture of “tap-and-hold to see options list” so it is now “reason not to buy”.)

Full article about the most biased list ever seen is here: (visit link)

5.6. Symbian user conversion to Windows Phone

Elop did not promise 1:1 transition from Symbian to Windows Phone (as said before). Tomi Ahonen has claimed so still and tried to twist numbers to prove it. That includes use of Kantar (again), but he chooses both wrong markets and wrong time to do that (unless one wants to fake the data, that is).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

Later Tomi brought up another “proof” of such a promise. That is Nokia “illustrative purposes only, not a forecast” graph he stripped from vital info. The result does not meet any criteria of a professional and is scary at best.
Detailed explanation is here: (visit link)

5.7. Osborne effect of Windows 7.x phones and the severity of it

Tomi Ahonen says Lumia line of Windows Phone 7.x was “osborned” in 2012. There was a sales impact, yes, but interestingly Lumia 800 scored most selling phone in Finland still in January 2013 when Windows Phone 8 devices were already in shops. Not to mention Tomi Ahonen did not find such problem when Symbian went through similar switch.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.8. Lumia’s sold at loss

Accroding to Tomi Ahonen Nokia has sold every single Lumia phone at loss. I can’t explain that with anything else than pure incompetence.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.9. The marketing push Nokia spent on Lumia line

Tomi Ahonen has repeatedly told that Nokia spent over three times as much marketing money on Lumia line than they did on ANY of their previous product launches. Interesting statement as Nokia’s own fiscal reports clearly state they spent LESS on Lumia than on previous launches.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

5.10. Additional lies about the Lumia phones

First Lumia phones (Lumia 710 and Lumia 800) had few standard features of Nokia phones. Like Nokia N9 (MeeGo phone), Lumia 800 had 8 megapixel camera – best in any Nokia phone except the “camera phone” of the time – Nokia N8. Lumia 710 was the cheaper phone and had lesser spec camera, like Nokia C7 that was launched alongside Nokia N8. Identically Lumia 710 had user replaceable battery (like Nokia C7) and Lumia 800 did not (like Nokia N8 and N9 did not). And the screen dimensions of Nokia’s touch screen smartphones increased in size under CEO Stephen Elop: Nokia didn’t have touch screen phone that would have even reached the screen dimensions of the iPhone at the time when he took the position.
…this assuming you did not ask from Tomi Ahonen who insists that Lumia 710 did not have user replaceable battery, that Lumia 800, 900 and 920 had worse cameras than previous Nokia phones and that the screen sizes under Elop decreased – all against the technical specifications of Nokia phones as published everywhere.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

6. China Mobile

6.1 China market numbers as presented by Tomi Ahonen

According to Tomi Ahonen China Telecom (operator selling Lumia 800C) would have 6% of Chinese mobile subscriptions. In fact it had (at time of article) 14% of the Chinese Market (146 Million subs), making them the World’s biggest CDMA operator and bigger than Verizon or AT&T. Bigger than either of previous AND T-Mobile US – combined.
At the same time we get China Mobile, which Tomi Ahonen claims to have 72% of the Chinese market. That – naturally – is also a bit far from the truth as China Mobile holds 66% of that market. (Tomi has “minor” error of 63 million subscribers, almost twice the size of entire T-Mobile US).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

6.2. China mobile rejection of Lumia and Nokia 801T

Now the reason to twist China Mobile size compared to other Chinese operators is that at that time China Mobile did not sell any Windows Phone product.
One of the most incredible stories from Tomi Ahonen is his claim that Nokia 801T (Symbian phone) would be “reverse-engineered” version of Lumia 800, where (in his words) “China mobile essentially forced Nokia to go back and reverse engineer the Lumia to take Windows out and put Symbian in“.
Not only does he bypass the fact that those two products so not share any properties (they have different casing, physical dimensions, display size, display resolution, chipset, processor, RF,…) but also he ignores the fact that Lumia 800 could not have worked in the TD-SCDMA network China Mobile uses, reverse engineered or not.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

6.3. China mobile rejection of Lumia part II

To continue the previous “forced Nokia to reverse engineer the Lumia to take Windows out and put Symbian in” – fairy tale (and his ignorance on incompatible network technologies) Tomi Ahonen went to claim that China Mobile “refused” to take any Lumia models from Nokia (which was supposed to prove China Mobile wa against Nokia’s strategy change, ignoring that the models were still incompatible with the network).
When Windows Phone 8 added the support for chipset required to support China Mobile networks, Tomi Ahonen sticked to that claim, saying China Mobile is not taking any Lumias. That means active denial of news for about 3 months.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

6.4. China mobile rejection of Lumia continued

To finalize the sequence in question, Nokia finally made public announcement with China Mobile that Lumia 920T is coming to China Mobile. Instead of admitting he was wrong with his statement about China Mobile saying “refused to  take any Lumia at all“, Tomi Ahonen has now a new story to fix the situation in his favor: “Microsoft and Nokia threw money at China Mobile“. Quite an achievement, considering it took years and years for Apple to have the iPhone being sold by China Mobile. Doesn’t Apple have money to “throw at China Mobile”?
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

6.5. Nokia Meego as China Mobile default operating system

According to Tomi Ahonen China Mobile had already chosen Nokia’s MeeGo operating system as “the default OS of their smartphones” before Nokia announced in February 2011 that the OS will be discontinued. A lie, nothing more.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

7. Tomi Ahonen biography

7.1. Biography of Tomi Ahonen

When Tomi Ahonen calls himself ex-Nokia Executive, he seems to forget few details worth mentioning. Such as the fact he has only worked in networks unit (not in Mobile Phones or smartphones) or the fact he therefore has no past or present inside info about Nokia’s handset business.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

7.2. Most influential by Forbes

Tomi Ahonen remembers to say he is most influential mobile expert globally as rated by Forbes. It is true that a contributor to the publication listed Tomi Ahonen as such in January 2012. It is also true that the same contributor removed Tomi Ahonen from the list in May 2012 and has not updated him back ever since.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

7.3. Forecast accuracy

Tomi Ahonen calls himself “most accurate forecaster”. His method seems to base on making forecasts every few months and later choosing the one that hit most closest. I call it lottery, if the more up-to-date forecasts do not outdate the previous ones. I let my readers judge if they see it as proper method to do forecasts.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

This is not all of it though. Even in case where Tomi says he made most accurate forecast of Nokia’s market share, he didn’t. Namely this is Tomi’s forecast of 12% in fourth quarter of 2011. Most accurate forecast comes from Horace Dediu of Asymco who forecasted 13% whereas the reality was 12.6% (this reported by Tomi Ahonen himself).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)
This must have been too much for Tomi to handle as he later modified the numbers he had reported himself and today talks about 12.4% – just to justify his continuous touting of being “most accurate forecaster”.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

And then there’s iPhone. Tomi has been categorically wrong in his forecasts on iPhone (over 70% etc.) but that for some reason does not prevent him from calling himself the most accurate forecaster on iPhone too. Lately he has also added to mix his market split of first iPhone sales. That is a trainwreck compared to reality and I have no idea why he brings it up.
Collection of his past forecasts are available here: (visit link) and his iPhone sales split can be found here: (visit link)

7.4. Influence of Tomi Ahonen towards public

The reason I started to do this blog was because Tomi Ahonen was being seen as a credible source of Nokia related info. By now we know he is not. A sad example is a blog posting done by a person who had been reading blog of Tomi Ahonen. That post has interesting statements, e.g. saying that when Stephen Elop took the reins of Nokia, the company had 60% market share in smartphones. (correct number would be 33%).
The post in question listed carrier boycott, high return rates of Lumias, about all of the above and the poor writer had not checked a single “fact” before writing his text.
It’s sad.
And frightening.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

7.5. Professionality

(This paragraph has been added later)
First of all it should be noted that ever since Nokia switched to Windows Phone the behaviour of Tomi Ahonen has been classless. Here is one example of it: (visit link)
I did an open letter to Tomi Ahonen where I tried to point it out that his behaviour (foul language, twisting numbers, misinterpreting people’s statements, inventing conspiracy theories, spreading lies, etc.) is going to give unprofessional image of him and eventually destroy both his reputation and income. The full letter is here: (visit link)

Did he take the advice? Of course not. I made a blog post about that too, but here’s more recent from Twitter:
calling_with_names
Professional behaviour? My kids behave better.

7.6. Forecast accuracy

Tomi Ahonen (author, consultant, motivational speaker) has repeatedly been telling that he is the most accurate forecaster in mobile (usually adding that he has been it for over a decade). I didn’t buy it so I made reviews of his annual forecasts. As it turned out, those other forecasters must really suck if their accuracy is worse than his. I recommend to start reading from year 2010 as his most recent forecasts make more sense if you know his track record.
Tomi’s forecast for year 2010 is here (visit link)
Tomi’s forecast for year 2011 is here (visit link)
Tomi’s forecast for year 2012 is here (visit link)
Tomi’s forecast for year 2013 is here (visit link)
and Tomi’s forecast for year 2014 is here (visit link)

8. Miscellaneous

8.1. Touch screen misinformation

According to Tomi Ahonen only 38% of all smartphones sold now are touch-screen smartphones. (For all mobile phones he had 37%.) Both numbers are impossible. Especially since OS requirements already demand that over 90% of smartphones must have had a touch screen. That extends to point that if 37% of all phones were equipped with touch screens, they would all be smartphones (which would mean e.g. there are no Asha-line feature phones with touch screen sold at all).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

8.2. Claim of Nokia having sold its mobile ad unit

According To Tomi Ahonen Nokia sold its mobile advertisement unit to Matchbin (later known as Radiate Media).
In reality Nokia sold NAVTEQ’s Radio and Television Advertising Group to Matchbin.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

8.3. The size of Nokia Money, the service

According to Tomi Ahonen “Nokia had recruited 1.2 million paying consumers to its Nokia Money service“, meaning that “Nokia had achieved a 12% market share in India” before Nokia shut down the service.
In reality Nokia had 100,000 to 200,000 (exact number unknown, reported numbers fall between those) paying consumers listed so assuming rest of the math is correct, Nokia had 1% – 2% of market share in India in its Nokia Money service and 10% – 11% of the market share in co-operation with banks (co-operation was not reported to having been shut down).
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)
And later update when (Tomi invented more bedtime stories to back up his original one) can be found here: (visit link)

8.4. Sales price of Nokia headquarters building

According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia’s Devices & Services unit did not make profit in 4th quarter of year 2012 but CEO of the time Stephen Elop “sold the HQ building and then attributed all its revenues to the handset unit, rather than accross all Nokia divisions evenly”. This – of course – is not true at all. Although Nokia DID sell its HQ building, the sales price was distributed between the units (visible in Nokia fiscal reports) AND excluded from the final (positive) result of Q4 2012.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

8.5. 25 million dollar bonus of CEO Stephen Elop for selling the Nokia Devices and Servies unit

Tomi Ahonen insists that year 2010 Stephen Elop was promised a bonus if he can sell Nokia’s Devices&Services unit and that everything Stephen Elop did as a CEO of Nokia was driven by this bonus.
Not only was the bonus mainly from Nokia’s stock price development since summer 2012 but that story has been proven as false outside this blog too. Why Tomi Ahonen does not accept the fact that the whole story was a storm in a waterglass I have no idea. Especially considering that Thorsten Heins the CEO of BlackBerry would have made OVER DOUBLE the money had he been able to sell BlackBerry (coincidentally second largest smartphone vendor in 2010, only behind Nokia).

8.6. Nokia X sales numbers

I’ll be terse here: Tomi Ahonen deliberately ignored the sales numbers of Nokia X smartphone so he could drop Microsoft/Nokia from the “top 10 biggest smartphone vendors” list in Q2 2014.
Full article about the subject is here: (visit link)

Forecast accuracy verdict on Tomi Ahonen, year 2014

Hi all and greetings from retirement. I have given a long thought on this post and finally decided to go for it. The thing is: Tomi Ahonen (author, consultant, motivational speaker) has repeatedly been telling that he is the most accurate forecaster in mobile (usually adding that he has been it for over a decade). I didn’t buy it so I made reviews of his forecasts for years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. As it turned out, those other forecasters must really suck if they’re worse than him. I also gave my thoughts on his year 2014 forecast but naturally it was impossible to give a full review on it as year 2014 was not over. Now it is and I decided to do the review.

Like I said in the forecast accuracy verdict for year 2013, I just love these “most accurate forecasts” that Tomi so much touts he has made. In 2013 Tomi forecasted iPhone market share to be in the 15% to 30% range (compared to 20% of the previous year). First of all, how is spread of 15 points of percentage supposed to be “accurate”? Was that really “most accurate forecast” made for that year by anyone?
If Apple had lost 25% of its market share that year, Tomi’s forecast would have been a hit.
If Apple had gained 50% more market share, Tomi’s forecast would still have been a hit.

And even with these forecasts Tomi still failed in the past, often he failed more than managed to get right. E.g. Android market share for year 2013 Tomi said would be between 60% and 70% – roughly flat from previous year’s 65%. After year 2013 was over, Android had market share of 78% for full year. Over 80% on some quarters.

Knowing this past performance it’s easy to understand that Tomi has been reluctant to give any actual numbers for year 2014. He only talks in terms of “will grow”, “will shrink” and “will stay roughly the same”. I suppose it’s easier to make “most accurate forecasts” that way but let’s try to see his accuracy still, shall we?

Year 2014 Forecast from Tomi Ahonen (with comparison to events that took place in year 2014)

Samsung has already gained the leadership edge of being the world’s largest handset provider, and its competitive advantages out of scale. Scale in manufacturing. Scale in sourcing. Scale in reach. Scale in retail presence. Scale in installed base of users. As long as Samsung doesn’t mess this up (like Nokia did), this is a very strong position and Samsung won’t be dethroned any year soon. If they grow complacent towards the end of this decade, maybe. But by pouncing very strongly when Nokia stumbled the past two years, Samsung has effectively won the decade, and is guaranteed to have well above average profits in a very profitable industry.

[1]

I want to show you a picture I tweeted I while ago:

SamsungNokia

This shows well the Samsung market share decline of last year. Down from 31% to 20.1% (fourth quarter market shares compared YoY). That’s losing over one third of your market share in one year [2]. As a historical comparison point we have market share of Nokia up to beginning of 2011. There we have drop of 26% in six months (Q3 and Q4 2010) and even more in last 3 quarters.
But what comes to profits Tomi mentioned, in year 2014 Samsung was still making more profits than all the other handset manufacturers combined, save for Apple. [3] Therefore Tomi kind of gets it right but this has been bad year for Samsung. They reported YoY profit drop of 60% on one quarter. That’s quite a big pain for any company. [4] Samsung was not safe with its profits, nor safe with its market share and it seems Samsung did not “win the decade” either. Which gets us to:

The real long-term rival to Samsung is not Apple, it is the Chinese vendors. One from the pack will finally get a genuine hit product and propel it to solid second place, in the next few years. That Chinese manufacturer will fight on price and in most consumer segments where Samsung is (and where Apple is not).

[1]

Okay… On fourth quarter 2014 Apple sold almost as many smartphones as Samsung. It was matter of three hundred thousand devices that Apple did not take first place. [2] We could call this part a miss but that would not be fair. The raw market share of Samsung was not eaten by Apple, the cheap high-volume phones competed against Micromax in India, Xiaomi in China, and so forth. But it was Apple that stole the high end. And high end makes majority of the profits and also significant market share in Western markets + Japan. Samsung was beaten from both ends of the price range. I think it’s time to check what I said a year ago:

Since Tomi chooses to use unit sales as a metric, it definitely will not be Apple but one or more Chinese makers that start eating market share from Samsung. Samsung makes phone components for itself and for others and it has always given Samsung a position of advantage. Chinese makers are one of the few that can fight Samsung in price and start eating Samsung from bottom up. And they will as that is their easiest way to challenge the giant. There already are Chinese phones that offer equal quality and user experience as Samsung mid-range phones but with less price. This year we will se phones challenging the high-end.

2014 will not be easy year for Samsung that already threw a profit warning but they will be “largest player” for sure. I would not be surprised if market share of Samsung will decline when Chinese vendors start selling outside China in significant amounts as consumers are finally familiar with the brand and dare to buy one.

That I think sums it up. Samsung had a bad year. Not catastrophic – they made profit – but bad.
And now I want to talk a bit more about that.

First of all, Tomi only evaluates companies by unit sales and units market share. I’ve said several times that it’s silly. It effectively puts Skoda and Rolls Royce in the order where Skoda is “winner” and Rolls Royce is “loser”. This way of evaluation causes Tomi to bet on players that may not be “winning”. Such as Nokia in 2010 or Samsung.

Samsung threw in a profit warning on fourth quarter of 2013 [5] and Tomi (who made his forecast before that) did not see that one coming. However he decided to play the active ignorance card:

Samsung was making strong profits in its handset unit but the profits were down considerably from Q3 – out of a one-time cost of handing celebration bonuses for its employees. So please don’t think Samsung’s handset business is suddenly struggling.

–Tomi Ahonen, February 13, 2014 [6]

That’s nice, but as we can read from reference [5], that bonus only counts for less than half of the drop. Almost as large drop comes from stronger Korean Won, but even in that case we lack few hundred million dollars… And that is assuming it would have been OK for Samsung not to grow at all from Q3 to Q4. (Which is not OK as Q4 is the Christmas quarter that should always cause increased sales in western markets.)
Then Tomi’s numbers come in. Samsung grew zero unit sales from Q3 to Q4. [6] As said it’s totally not OK and Tomi noted it in his blog but gave no explanation on it. Weird.

On we go. On Q1 2014 Samsung had once again decline in profits but as unit sales were up, Tomi was fine with it. [7]

On Q2 2014 Samsung sales drop from 86.8 million units to 74.1 million units. Tomi finally wakes up:

Samsung had a horrible quarter crashing market share from 31% to 25%. While still mroe than twice as big as the number 2 (Apple), Samsung saw its profits take a big hit too and is facing competition on all fronts and the Galaxy line’s lustre is now dulled. Time for Samsung to dazzle us with something new and amazing. If this is a one-quarter one-off blip, then Samsung should be fine, but if they see another quarter of a drop in market share now into Q3, that would be a danger-sign for the boys of Gangnam.

–Tomi Ahonen, August 15, 2014 [8]

One quarter one-off? Apparently two previous did not count? On Q3 Samsung unit sales are up a bit but market share drops still. Profits crash YoY. [9] Tomi still does not report a problem here so I assume it’s fine for him.

And then we get to fourth quarter.
Samsung unit sales dropped.
Samsung market share dropped.
Samsung profits dropped.
Now Tomi has to explain it:

Sammy’s damage was done probably more on the bottom end of the scale. There we do see a heavily surging Huawei who has had a banner quarter (and perfectly timed for its home market, China).

–Tomi Ahonen, January 29, 2015 [10]

Finally he gets it! Let’s see how well his enlightenment holds this time when numbers for 1st quarter of 2015 are in. ;) But let’s move on to Apple:

Apple will do the iThing. They take the cream off the top, offering less than supreme devices, with some very Apple-ish ooh-aah single feature every few years, but lagging in most tech specs from the leaders. But providing uber-desirable sexy iconic iGadgets that every iGeek has to iHave. And in the process Apple gets to collect the biggest share of iProfits. As long as Apple investors are not under any illusions that Apple would one day ‘rule the world’ of smartphones, and its role will be in the 10%-15% market share mid term, maybe more like 6%-8% in the long term, but taking the biggest profits, that is fine.

[1]
I made my argument on this already a year ago but I suppose I could briefly sum it up: What is this downplay of Apple? Apple sells their phones to 15% of the smartphone buyers. Last year that was 192 million buyers; were they all iGeeks? Are iGeeks so common? And even if they were, that is the specific 15% that can afford to spend $600-$1000 on a smartphone. They are very nice 15% to sell to. Apple owns that end of price spectrum and gathers over 70% of the industry profits. If they do that by selling to these “iGeeks”… Well then everyone wants to sell to iGeeks!
Everyone.
Including Samsung.

iThing“… *sigh*

As said, Tomi did not give numbers when he did his forecast, but he did make additional forecasts later. This is after launch of iPhone 6:

Apple has never felt this level of ‘even’ competition from rivals before. It will be their roughest year. This does not mean that Apple sales will fall. Apple has the best loyalty in the handset business. But this means three things.
It means the news customer acqusition to iPhone will be weakest its ever been.
The growth in absolute unit sales will be worst its been,
the iPhone market share for Christmas 2014 and Spring 2015 will be worst its been in years. (when we combine that with declining iPod sales, flat iPad sales and delayed launch of the iWatch to next year, it means very modest Christmas news for Apple).

These two smartphones are priced at the top of the price pyramid where competition is rough and rivals are tough. The consumers of smartphones are not now on their first smartphone, they have grown to appreciate certain things and will seek the model they want. These two iPhone 6 models will not set the world on fire in the way that previous new iPhone model upgrades have. Yes the iPhone will set a new sales record of course for Christmas but its market share will be the worst the iPhone has seen for many years and the total annual market share for 2014 will be somewhere down near 14%. As China transitions away from handset subsidies, these two iPhone 6 models will not be very compelling to the Chinese market where local rivals already have competitive offerings and will upgrade their portfolio with even better (more competitive) models for the Chinese gift-giving season (Chinese New Year in early 2015).

–Tomi Ahonen, September 16, 2014 [11]

So how was fourth quarter for Apple?

  • New customer acquisition?
    Best ever, according to Apple CEO Tim Cook.
  • Growth in absolute units?
    Best ever.
  • iPhone market share for Christmas 2014?
    Up compared to Q4 2013 – definitely not “worst its been in years”.
  • How about “modest Christmas news for Apple“?
    Highest profit any company has ever made in any industry.
    Ever.
    On that very specific Christmas quarter.
  • Worst market share for many years?
    I think I said it was up YoY.
  • Full year market share?
    14.8% – very close to Tomi’s 14% (but I do admit it is hard to miss that forecast as one quarter can’t have big effect on full year market share).
  • Chinese market?
    Apple was #1 most selling brand in China as measured in absolute units sold in fourth quarter. [12]

In a sense this is nothing new. Like we could read from Tomi’s past iPhone forecasts, he has categorically made forecasts on Apple with the narrative of “unless Apple does XYZ they can’t grow anymore but if Apple does all of those, they will grow to N%“. Problem has been that Apple has grown exactly like Tomi forecasted Apple would grow if it would do all those things…
…while doing NONE of those.
But this iPhone forecast is the worst ever. If there is any way to be more off than this analysis, I’d love to see-
-Wait! There is and it is even more fresh than previous one!

For the full year iPhone is heading to approx 14% market share (down from 15.5% in 2013 and 19.5% in 2012).

Market share keeps falling. When will it stabilizea d to what level. I expect around 9% in a couple of years. The large screen phablets will not restore iPhone to growth, they may stall the decline for a quarter or two. Then it again continues. But for Apple to achieve a stabilization of its market share erosion year-on-year, would require roughly 64 million iPhone sales for the Christmas Quarter now. Even that would only give a market share annually of about 14.5%. And it would require a herculean jump from the 51 million iPhones sold last year in the Christmas quarter. I think more reasonable is something nearer 58 to 59 million.

–Tomi Ahonen, October 29, 2014 [13]

Apple sold 74.5 million units in fourth quarter. [2] Tomi’s forecast is massively off. Not only that but if we compare Tomi’s forecast to contemporary analyst consensus, he was more pessimistic than average. And boy do we have other options to compare to:

benbajarin_twitter

Not bad, eh? Sure, it was tight race of 0.3M units but still it’s a lightyear closer to reality than Tomi’s forecast. And please note the date – September 4th. He is not only getting it so close about Apple and Samsung but in addition to that he’s making the statement prior to Tomi talking about 58-59 million. (Generally analysts expected over 60M for Q4 2014).

That much for Apple. Moving on:

So this story is a bit boring now. We do have a nice tussle for who gets to call themselves the third largest smartphone maker. That race currently features Asian makers. World’s largest home electronics entertainment company Sony from Japan. World’s largest laptop computer maker Lenovo of China. And several second tier handset players – LG out of South Korea, Huawei out of China, ZTE out of China and Coolpad/Yulong out of China. If you want to be generous you can add HTC out of Taiwan.

[1]
I have to add something here: HTC fell out of top 10. Sony is at the position #10, waiting to be replaced and has implied in public it would like to sell their smartphone unit. For a reason unknown Tomi has repeatedly been downplaying Xiaomi and TCL-Alcatel Tomi did not see coming to the list at all. (In fact it would not even be there unless there had been a comment from a reader of his blog) [14].

Next Tomi moves to Nokia/Microsoft. I cut off some half-truths and unnecessary rant and stick to forecasting:

A player who is not in the race for the third ranking among smartphone manufactuers is Microsoft, with its Nokia acquisition…
…now ranked barely 9th largest smartphone maker by the end of 2013…
…Can this improve under Microsoft? In the long run, maybe…
…during 2014 Microsoft takes over the Nokia handset business and tries to figure out how to fix it. A big sign of will Microsoft do this intelligently or dumbly, will be how quickly Stephen Elop is removed from running the handset business of Microsoft. If Bill Gates (and Steve Ballmer) knew what they were doing with the Nokia acquisition then soon after the deal is completed in April, or during the spring they will reassign Elop to do something less damaging than running Microsoft’s handset business.

But during 2014 no matter what miracles Microsoft were able to achieve with its new Lumia (Nokia) unit, much of 2014 will be just adjustments and corrections and this is not a year of Microsoft/Nokia comeback. Microsoft-Nokia will be fighting just to remain relevant and in the Top 10 throughout this year. If you want to see the glass as half-full, then maybe in year 2015 we can hope for a comeback. If you want to see the glass as half-empty, we are now counting time till Microsoft shuts the lights out from the futile purchase of the Nokia handset assets. Although with Microsoft’s deep pockets. that will take years still.

[1]
Elop was not removed from head of devices position during the whole year.
Microsoft didn’t shut down the unit.
Unit sales increased and market share fell.
But we have to admit this was not a year of comeback (although I wonder if anyone else forecasted that anyway to make Tomi “most accurate forecaster”?) so let’s call it a hit.

Blackberry already fell out of the Top 10 and are in such a bad shape they won’t be doing major returns any time soon.

[1]
True, and real surprise would have been if they had made a return.

We already have seen Chinese Xiaomi pass Blackberry taking 11th ranking during Q4 of 2013 (they may even pass HTC and enter the Top 10 by the time the final Q4 numbers are in around early February)

[1]
They didn’t kick HTC out in Q4 but it was close. Call it a hit.

If you are interested in the race for who is 3rd they are all essentially full Android houses now, all from Asia, with very similar products and prices in their product range. This industry from the hardware side is Samsung, Apple and the Nine Dwarfs (Huawei, Sony, Lenovo, LG, ZTE, Yulong/Coolpad, Microsoft/Nokia, HTC and Xiaomi). Yes I will be monitoring the races and reporting on the stats but yeah, this is not anymore the exciting times it was three and four years ago.

[1]
Lenovo bought Motorola. Apple almost beat samsung in terms of units shipped in one quarter. Nokia/Microsoft dropped out from top 10 (let’s not start to argue about on which quarter that happened), so did HTC. Sony is lingering at the edge and they already told they plan to exit smartphone business altogether.
Yeah, this is not anymore the exciting times it was. ;)

We did see the ‘son of Nokia’ ie Jolla launch on the evolution of Nokia’s next generation operating system MeeGo, called Sailfish (which is also Linux based and can run Android apps natively… cool). Jolla in December outsold the iPhone on the one carrier/operator that offered it in Finland DNA. From small things big successes can grow. Wishing Jolla and Sailfish all the very best.

[1]
That’s not really a forecast but I’ll throw in mine:

So it is good sign Jolla sold so well. Kind of sad that it has to end in January and it is even more sad that Sailfish OS won’t see even 1% market share for full year 2014, but I really, REALLY hope Jolla has big enough target group to keep sales at profitable level for every quarter of the year.

That is Jolla/Sailfish in a nutshell. Sailfish OS has so small marketshare it disappears to rounding errors. It’s interesting that after all the rooting for MeeGo and Jolla Tomi has done we haven’t heard him giving a single forecast where Jolla would be heading towards massive growth. It’s as if he doesn’t actually believe that OS by itself would be a significant sales factor.
Which brings us to:

On the software side the biggest potential disruptor is Tizen. We should see the first Tizen smartphones from Samsung this Spring and likely sold among first markets in Japan on NTT DoCoMo’s network. My guess is that Samsung wants to create a big spash with its first Tizen device so they are putting extra effort to make it noteworthy. If a couple of other hardware vendors also deliver on expected Tizen handsets, it could be a fascinating world. Samsung also intends to use Tizen on its TVs and Tizen has many car makers and other tech providers lined up in that ecosystem

[1]
In my year 2013 forecast accuracy verdict I said that Tomi failed his Tizen forecast by ∞ percent for full year 2013 and I added that probably for year 2014 too. Well, it turned out to be true. When Samsung finally launched Tizen smartphone it was a low-end model (totally killing Tomi’s idea that Samsung intentionally delays the phone “to create a big splash”) and year was 2015. No other handset vendors have launched devices on Tizen either and my forecast is that Samsung will be only Tizen manufacturer (actual devices brought to market, not just “partnership agreements”) for the full year 2015 too.

I think it’s time for Tomi to end his forecast. But how about finishing it by throwing out some random ideas so he can call himself “most accurate forecaster” if some of them actually happen? [1]

Will Sony use the Playstation brand to boost Xperia and other Sony smartphone sales?

They didn’t.

Will Nikon launch a smartphone?

They didn’t.

Will Nintendo correct its strategic mistake (of missing the smartphone challenge in pocket gaming).

They didn’t.

Will Microsoft use the Xbox branding to help its Nokia handset sales?

They didn’t.

What will LG do with the Palm WebOS platform it acquired from HP.

TVs, not phones.

And how will HP re-enter the smartphone space as it signalled last year.

Okay, one hit from Tomi. He can now say he “most accurately” forecasted HP to launch a smartphone almost two weeks before HP actually announced HP Slate 6… ...except that HP told they’ll launch phone-capable Android devices already in December [15] – oops. (Tomi also didn’t give any forecast for actual HP performance which has been negligible at best.)

Its likely that Apple breaks the iPhone release cycle from 12 months into 6 months, releasing a new flagship in the Spring and new cheaper models in the Autumn, likely starting this year

They didn’t.

and they will probably spread the price difference between flagship model (current 5C) and discount models (5S).

They didn’t.
At the time of launch the price of iPhone 5C 16GB was $100 USD less than that of iPhone 5S 16GB. [16] When iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus were launched, the price of iPhone 6 Plus 16GB was same $100 USD more than that of iPhone 6 16GB. [17]

So much attempt, so little results. Let’s call it a day then, thanks for reading.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/01/so-previewing-smartphone-bloodbath-year-5-who-is-still-left-alive.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/smarphone-year-2014-final-stats-brand-top-10-os-top-5-installed-base-regional-split-and-bloodbath-q4.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/smarphone-year-2014-final-stats-brand-top-10-os-top-5-installed-base-regional-split-and-bloodbath-q4.html

[3] http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/14/05/08/apple-samsung-combine-for-106-of-handset-profits-as-competitors-continue-to-bleed-cash

[4] http://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-expects-60-percent-drop-in-profit-for-q3-2014/

[5] http://bgr.com/2014/01/24/samsung-q4-2013-earnings/

[6] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/02/final-2013-smartphone-market-share-numbers-full-year-and-quarterly-q4-data-by-top-10-brands-plus-os-.html

[7] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/06/final-q1-smartphone-market-shares-top-10-brands-os-platforms-and-installed-base.html

[8] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/08/smartphone-top-10-for-q2-of-2014-same-ole-same-ole.html

[9] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/11/smartphone-bloodbath-q3-full-results-top-10-brands-os-platforms-and-installed-base.html

[10] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/01/bloodbath-news-lg-reports-final-2014-number-also-outside-top-10-we-have-lumia-number-and-some-though.html

[11] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/09/lets-discuss-the-iphone-6-models-apple-now-in-me-too-mode-only-following-the-leaders.html

[12] http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prHK25437515

[13] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/10/iphone-393-m-units-in-q3-sorry-i-missed-this-news-a-week-ago.html

[14] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/11/smartphone-bloodbath-q3-full-results-top-10-brands-os-platforms-and-installed-base.html?cid=6a00e0097e337c883301bb07a7a07e970d#comment-6a00e0097e337c883301bb07a7a07e970d

[15] http://www.phonearena.com/news/HP-soon-to-release-phone-capable-Android-tablets_id50661

[16] http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/09/16iPhone-5s-iPhone-5c-Arrive-on-Friday-September-20.html

[17] http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2014/09/09Apple-Announces-iPhone-6-iPhone-6-Plus-The-Biggest-Advancements-in-iPhone-History.html

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