I’m planning to cover (at this moment) second-latest article by Tomi Ahonen. [1] I feel it’s about time to do as-instant-as-possible reaction if we want to follow where the guy is going towards. You can read the whole article here, I’m giving you the “FUDless” version to compare. I’ve done Tomi ahonen in Italic, my FUD removals without it. read the FUDless version from the end if you wish to skip the process that leads us there:

What Happens Now to Nokia Lumia and Windows Phone, After Microsoft Throws Nokia Under the Bus?

Last two weeks we’ve had a lot of disasterous news for Nokia. I reported on ‘what we now know’ after the Nokia latest profit warning (and Nokia share price fell a Nokia-record 18% in one day). As I was preparing to do an update of the forecast for Nokia’s smartphone performance based on all the bad news we heard from that Nokia announcement, came news of the Microsoft tablet – more bad news – and then the second bombshell relating to Nokia: that none of the current Lumia smartphones running Windows Phone will be able to be upgraded to Windows 8. Nokia fell another 11% yesteday on the news.

Next we have Tomi Ahonen serve us a lie that N9 is no longer sold in Finland or Sweden. I’m sparing you from long text by Mr. Ahonen, read it from original [1] if you wish. Good try, Tomi, but unfortunately not true. Elisa sells it in Finland, [2] so does Sonera. [3] Swedish operators seem to have lined up behind the Windows Phone strategy as they offer wide range of Lumia’s instead. Either Tomi thinks this is the operator boycott or then it’s just Tomi who doesn’t like the idea that carriers might actually support Nokia. Oh, well…

So we knew Q1 was bad. We expected Q2 to be worse. We heard now, that Q2 is even worse than we thought. That was from Nokia profit warning announcement. Then we get the bombshell – about Windows 8. Now we find that the total Lumia line has been Osborned. Not by Elop this time, this time that was done by Ballmer.

THE WINDOWS ASSASSIN

And then Tomi tells us fouled-up-facts that Lumia line has been “osborned”. Feel free to read more about that in my previous blog. If you really want to, you can read the whole text from his blog, it just does not make sense as it’s FUD.

BUT WIN 8 IS GREAT

Okay, we have Tomi Ahonen running the graphs again. In brief he is ignoring the fact that for 2010 Q3 and 2010 Q4 Nokia grew slower than the industry, grew even SLOWER for the Q4 where all other companies were speeded up by holiday sales (all this visible in his graph, copied below) and then (after Nokia lost over 25% of its Market share during that half-year period) says “Nokia was not declining“. Worst thing is – he was the one to report all this about 2010, making catastrophic forecast in 2011 and now just acts as that never took place.
Once again sparing you from the long post. But here’s the image:

UPDATE: I wrote a post about this graph and its successor. If you wish to read more, it’s here.

FIRST OF THREE SALES BOYCOTTS

Yes, sparing you from long text again. In brief Tomi Ahonen starts with Elop Effect, claiming it started Nokia’s problems. Something he does not even himself believe. Then he goes for the operator boycott – a mixture of lies and FUD as you can red from my previous blogs.

SECOND BOYCOTT CAUSED BY SKYPE

Oh, we get Skype too. Well, I covered that one also before.

…and Tomi Ahonen claims Elop admitted it, a LIE, nothing else.

THIRD BOYCOTT NOW DUE TO NO UPGRADE

So now we get the Windows 8 news. No upgrade for any current Windows Phone based smartphones by any manufacturer, to Windows 8. The total Nokia Lumia line is instantly Osborned, not by Elop, but this time, by Ballmer. Anyone who bought a Lumia will seem like a total fool to any knowledgable friends. The carriers who sold Lumia (and Samsung, HTC etc Windows Phone handsets) will be blamed for selling an obsolete product – there will be record returns and tons of complaints, especially from all who are now on two year contracts. Those customers will demand to be released from those contracts.

I give a credit to him. The way media has presented this has been giving people the impression that upgrade is needed or somehow essential. But as I pointed out in my previous blog, it is not.

UPDATE 27 June – wow that didn’t take long. One of my Twitter followers, Jose Galvez @xoj_21 sent me update from Amazon that the Lumia 900 which originally had Amazon list price of $499.99 US dollars – is now sold.. wait for it.. for one cent !! For one penny !! I was wrong! Lumia didn’t crash so badly it would sell for pennies on the dollar. It sells for one fifth of one penny on the dollar. From 500 dollars to one penny. This is murder on Lumia and the Nokia reputation. (Thanks Jose for finding the link)

Wow, what a finding. Let me just do a little magical research…

Lumia from Amazon with AT&T subscription: $0.01 [4]
Lumia from Amazon without AT&T subscription: $575.99 [5]

It’s actually 76 dollars more EXPENSIVE than what it was originally (original price according to Tomi Ahonen). In addition to this AT&T is supporting the sales of a Nokia product even more than before. Is Tomi next going to fix his blog to say this is bad thing too?

Rest is then pretty much garbage about operators returning Lumias from their stocks (see operator boycott above), but then we have this jewel:

Am I imagining things? No. This is the immediate response from T-Mobile (as per TamsPPC): Because there is no upgrade to Windows 8, while T-Mobile had originally committed to sell the Lumia 900 in Germany and did advertise it already, it now will not do so. No Lumia 900 to be sold by T-Mo in Germany. Note, T-Mobile is Germany’s biggest operator/carrier and Germany is the headquarters for the T-Mobile group, one of the world’s 20 largest mobile carrier/operator groups for example the parent of USA’s T-Mobile. If this is what T-Mo does and says so in public, you can bet your bottom dollar it ain’t the only one.

That’s harsh. But Let’s see what The Verge writes about it:

the official Deutsche Telekom response was that the rejection of the Lumia 900 is just one of the carrier’s many “portfolio decisions” that have to be made and “unfortunately we cannot offer each new device.” So the public mouthpiece of the company isn’t quite yet willing to affirm that the lack of an upgrade path is at fault, but the fact remains that one of Europe’s biggest operators is giving Nokia’s flagship device a skip and we sincerely doubt that has anything to do with the hardware on offer.” [6]

EDIT: My previous text (left below but dashed over) was subjective and not a valid counterargument. New one added here.

I admit that this can be valid data. However, since the official response from T-Mobile Germany says it’s portfolio issue and T-Mobile Germany still sells Lumia 710 and 800 subsidized, I will drop this item from the “FUDless” version, since the data it is based on is unverified rumor at best. Obviously T-Mobile is not dropping the Lumia line as a whole.

They doubt it too. Wow. But hey, if we were Nokia-oriented, could it be hardware related? Let’s see. T-Mobile Germany (a.k.a. Telekom)…

German operators can use the 800 MHz, 1,800 MHz and 2,600 MHz frequencies for LTE. Right now, Vodafone and O2 are just using the 800 MHz frequency for LTE in Germany, Vodafone even in Dusseldorf and in the near future in other cities. That is why they offer download speeds of just up to 50 mbps. So far, Telekom is the only provider using the 1,800 MHZ frequency in Cologne and Frankfort which allows for higher download speeds of up to 100 mbps. The 2,600 MHz will be employed as soon as more customers use LTE services and the carriers have to provide more capacity on their 4G networks.” [7]

What does Lumia 900 support? It does not support any of those LTE bands! [8] The US market version supports LTE frequencies 700 MHz, 1700MHz and 2100MHz, none of them in use in Germany. [9]

 

(But hey, it HAS TO BE because of WP8 upgradeability, right?)

WHEN YOU HAVE 3 ALTERNATIVES

I mercifully dropped off speculations about other manufacturers dropping WP due to reasons already pointed out to be not true. This I think I have to address:

like China Mobile the world’s largest mobile operator/carrier (that is like 7 times AT&T haha, did you get that – SEVEN times AT&T). They said no to Lumia, they have the equivalent to the Lumia 800, as the Nokia 801T, which runs on Symbian

Yep, they do. It uses TD-SCDMA – a technology used in China. I don’t think Nokia really had time or money to stop their production of Symbian phones capable to do TD-SCDMA and start making “first TD-SCDMA Windows Phone ever” from scratch. It’s just way more easier to sell the working piece they had to the operator. Once again Tomi is denying thr REAL REASON, the critical detail behind the “T” in 801T.

Oh, we get to N9 (and N950) part. I’m sorry. I have to skip it as I have not yet addressed this in any of my blogs. I cannot claim it full BS but I also don’t buy it. So instead of copy-pasting it here and giving it credibility I guide you to the original blog.

SO WHAT HAPPENS

I was the most accurate forecaster of how badly the Elop Effect will damage Nokia sales last year. I hit the end-of-year market share and again this Q1 market share within one percentage point. Since then, I also gave my forecast for now, this year 2012 Nokia market shares by Quarter. That has now again been destroyed, so yes, I will have to revise (and thus downgrade) my forecasts for this year 2012. But yes, I predicted Nokia would end in Q4 of 2012 with 3% market share in smartphones (it was 33% when Elop took over less than two years ago). Now that number will need to be downgraded. I will return with those numbers as soon as I have them.

Fair enough. He also made the base for the forecast before February 2011. Read it here. It’s rather easy to do prediction now that he is constantly readjusting it and at the same time bad-mouthing Nokia all that he can. I would love to make my judgement on his skills based on his original version, not the one he is readjusting every quarter.
(He is next repeating the same FUD we had before, skipping that).

…which has lead us to end of his blog. So next:

SAME BLOG WITHOUT THE FUD

What Happens Now to Nokia Lumia and Windows Phone, After Microsoft Throws Nokia Under the Bus?

Last two weeks we’ve had a lot of disasterous news for Nokia. I reported on ‘what we now know’ after the Nokia latest profit warning (and Nokia share price fell a Nokia-record 18% in one day). As I was preparing to do an update of the forecast for Nokia’s smartphone performance based on all the bad news we heard from that Nokia announcement, came news of the Microsoft tablet – more bad news – and then the second bombshell relating to Nokia: that none of the current Lumia smartphones running Windows Phone will be able to be upgraded to Windows 8. Nokia fell another 11% yesteday on the news.

I was the most accurate forecaster of how badly the Elop Effect will damage Nokia sales last year. I hit the end-of-year market share and again this Q1 market share within one percentage point. Since then, I also gave my forecast for now, this year 2012 Nokia market shares by Quarter. That has now again been destroyed, so yes, I will have to revise (and thus downgrade) my forecasts for this year 2012. But yes, I predicted Nokia would end in Q4 of 2012 with 3% market share in smartphones (it was 33% when Elop took over less than two years ago). Now that number will need to be downgraded. I will return with those numbers as soon as I have them.

…end of text. And the last part is quite arguable too. Quite nice amount of fillings by Mr. Ahonen, but no real news value.

I’ll get back with his most recent blogs as they come up. Stay tuned.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/what-happens-now-to-nokia-lumia-and-windows-phone-after-microsoft-throws-nokia-under-the-bus.html

[2] N9 64GB Musta
http://www.elisashopit.fi/tuote/751?o=1&p=1&c=1&m%5B0%5D=Nokia

[3] Nokia N9 16GB Cyan
https://kauppa.sonera.fi/yksityisille/puhelin_ja_liittyma/puhelin.aspx?PhoneName=Nokia+N9+16GB&ColorKey=cyan

[4] Nokia Lumia 900 black
http://wireless.amazon.com/Nokia-Lumia-Windows-Phone-Black/dp/B007P5NHJO/ref=sh_br_ph_1?ie=UTF8&transaction=INDIVIDUAL_NEW&sr=1-1-entd&qid=1340786662957

[5] Nokia Lumia 900 black unlocked
http://www.amazon.com/NOKIA-LUMIA-BLACK-UNLOCKED-GENUINE/dp/B007TH66UA/ref=sr_1_45?s=wireless&ie=UTF8&qid=1340786794&sr=1-45

[6] Lumia 900 T-Mobile Germany rejection
http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/20/3098768/lumia-900-t-mobile-germany-rejection-windows-phone

[7] 4G: How to Use LTE Services in Germany
http://www.phone-guide-germany.com/4g-lte-germany/6569/

[8] Nokia Lumia 900 Technische Daten
http://www.nokia.com/de-de/produkte/smartphones-und-handys/lumia900/technische-daten/

[9] Nokia Lumia 900 specifications
http://www.nokia.com/us-en/products/phone/lumia900/specifications/

Guideline for commenting:
I hate the way Tomi Ahonen deletes criticizing comments from his blog. However, I plan to follow three of his principles: I’ll delete comments that are

  1. Personal insults to someone
  2. Duplicates
  3. Spam

In addition, if you wish to challenge my previous posts, please comment to those.

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