I’ve been piling up stuff for Tomi’s latest blog post (the ultra long one). Luckily commenters here have given me some cheer-up during long nights. This is somewhat old comment from nickname CN, I decided to make a post of it after all. I realised that I don’t have to do all the work, I really can use the ready stuff people hand me if I just let them be the ones getting the cheers. Yes CN, you get all the credit here.
(And no, I haven’t checked the numbers for this one. If someone wants to challenge them, please do – with a reference.)

China math of tomi Ahonen – cleared up by CN

Before getting into the details of this one, think about those various discussions where Nokia has been attacked on not having any Lumias in Verizon.
This is about Lumia 800c, the cdma version of Lumia 800. It is available at China Telecom.

First, something Tomi wants to present as a fact (and where he fails):

The Nokia Lumia 800c is only sold by the tiny China Telecom, the smallest of the three Chinese carriers who has 6% of the Chinese market.” [1]

Well, what’s tiny? This is naturally something where we are all right with our own opinions, so I can’t really challenge Tomi if he seriously thinks China Telecom is tiny. For the record, I don’t think it’s tiny. Secondly, this 6% is quite far off from reality – I would imagine that one of  “the most influential mobile experts” would know the markets a bit better. And maybe he does, but doesn’t want to tell you?
Then, more about China Telecom:

…remember China Telecom is a fixed line operator, most of their subscribers are fixed landline telephone users.”

Would make me think they hardly have any mobile subscribers. Unless I knew the truth.
And more, this time a bit of shouting added:

…China Mobile is.. ELEVEN times bigger than China Telecom!”

Calm down Tomi, we hear you. Even though you are bullshitting us. China Mobile is less than 5 times bigger than China Telecom.

So, here’s some data from Informa Telecom & Media, on Chinese mobile markets, figures from end of May:

China Mobile     | 695 M | (66% market share)
China Unicom     | 204 M | (20%) 
China Telecom    | 146 M | (14%)
Verizon Wireless | 111 M | *
AT&T Mobility    | 105 M | *
T-Mobile USA     | 33 M  | *

*US operators added for reference

So, even with Tomi’s “6%”, China Telecom would have 63 Million mobile subscribers. That’s tiny? But the fact is that they have 146 Million mobile subs, making them the World’s biggest cdma operator and bigger than Verizon or AT&T (with a margin larger than the size of T-Mobile US, Ex-Nokian comment). That’s how tiny it is. That’s how meaningless it is for Nokia and Microsoft.

And while we add the fact that Lumia seems to be # 2 ranked in sales list, on China Telecom’s web site, we can’t ignore this one. When we add the fact that China Telecom holds 35% market share in 3G in China, we can’t ignore them.
An interesting thing with China Telecom is that they add about 3 M new mobile subs every month. That’s about twice as much as US is adding in total.

Now, back to Verizon. 111 Million mobile subscriptions. You want to call then something less than tiny? If we follow Tomi’s ideology, I’d ask Nokia to forget Verizon – who cares of such small…, sorry, tiny business.

When I posted some corrections to Tomi’s blog, presenting the right figures, did he say thank you and fix his mistake. No, he just deleted my posting. Are the mistakes still there? Of course they are – this is Tomi.

But hey, based on Tomi’s latest blog he may have learnt something. He talks about China a lot, but does not make false claims again. Or does he…? Yes of course he does, but not on the scale he’s done before.

Tomi Ahonen, July 6: “China Mobile alone is bigger than seven AT&Ts.

Not quite, but let’s say they are bigger than six AT&T’s.

As Tomi’s header says, he is “Paging Truth Police”. He surely needs one.


[1] Paging Truth Police: No! Windows Phone and Nokia Lumia are NOT outselling iPhone in China. Utter BS story spread by Microsoft propaganda machine http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/paging-truth-police-no-windows-phone-and-nokia-lumia-are-not-outselling-iphone-in-china-utter-bs-sto.html