@Jan_Olsmar said it well in Twitter: “Looks like @tomiahonen has been drunk again and writing a new hate blog around Nokia and Elop and Microsoft.” I frankly have no better way to describe the monster he has produced. In his words:

this blog is at draft stage. I have worked on this nonstop the past 40 hours, am dead tired and can’t think straight anymore. As its Friday and some of my followers may be expecting this blog, and it being Friday nite my end, I want to publish this now in draft form. I will be cleaning this up

Forty hours without sleep? Tomi – clean it up. Preferably with Ctrl-A + Delete. Best for everyone.
(Later Tomi Ahonen tweeted about 72 hours or more of work on the blog. It’s no longer on draft stage. And he did not do the previous instruction either.)

I’m now going to give you a shortened version. Much easier than reading the long blog post:

The Sun Tzu of Nokisoftian Microkia – Mirror mirror on the wall, who’se the baddest of them all – Waterloo, I was defeated you won the war – a long trek blog in search of the worst CEO ever (spoiler alert: Elop)

Tomi is first doing some war history. I really recommend you to read it, if you’re into war history. And he does that before the FUD starts, so you get it kinda free.

CALLS FOR ELOP TO BE FIRED

Tomi lists here Jean-Louis Gassee calling for Elop to be fired. In his words

Gassee draws conclusions that Nokia has seen its products ‘Osborned’ twice and Ratnered (sounds like my blog!).

I’m glad Tomi relates to guy who was appointed to Steve Jobs’s old position as head of Macintosh development in Apple 1985 when Jobs left. Judging from the performance this guy has had during his career he must be a real mastermind. Did I mention he was forced out from Apple 1990, went to Be Inc., refused to sell Be to Apple for $200M, demanding $275M? (This – of course – only to fail whole deal, crash the company during next 5 years and see Be Inc. to be sold finally to Palm for $11M.) Good reference, Tomi.

Tomi then gathers some more “essentially all Finnish and several other Scandinavian newspapers and other media” to back up the claim that Elop has made mistakes (Really? I never thought that since he has admitted them himself! Does he need newspapers for that?)
Then we get some “told you so“, accompanied by demand to fire Elop.

BEAR FALSE WITNESS

We get introduction to Sun Tzu and Tomi’s keen interest on Elop misquoting him. Tomi basically has written the whole monsterblog of 30 000 words around Sun Tzu quotes as he says Elop misquotes “Art of war”. I have to quote nickname “Teemu” frm comments of original blog post here:
Regarding the Sun Tzu quote, ‘You have to believe in yourself.’ is actually a quote from Sun Tzu according to the interwebs. Just not from the Art of War.
This is from the Business Week article: ‘To convince Nokia’s own employees that a comeback is quietly under way, he is not above quoting Sun Tzu’s Art of War. One of its guiding principles, he notes, is ‘first, you must believe in yourself.’
From that I got the feeling that author of the article mixed up the Art of War there. Or maybe Elop though it was from there. Who knows..
Anyways, I think you long bashing Elop about Sun Tzu quoting is a bit uncalled for 🙂

Posted by: Teemu | July 09, 2012 at 08:35 PM” [11]

It seems misquoting is Tomi’s privilege. See here.
Then Tomi goes to give us reasons for firing Elop:

REASON 1 – DELUSIONAL ANALYSIS

We get the graphs again. Go here to see what I mean. Case closed.

And some analysis on how profitable Nokia was at end of 2010. Read here for the better details.

And Elop destroying Nokia. Go here for alternate version.

REASON 2 – BURNING PLATFORMS

OOOOOH! It’s Burning Platform Memo!!! I have been waiting for this one! (I really have.) Here’s Memo quoted by Tomi Ahonen:

While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind.

This is Tomi Ahonen now:

Nokia was not ‘standing on a burning platform’. Look at that graph, the blue line and remember, his smarpthone unit had just reported a Nokia-record profit.

This is Tomi Ahonen from January 2011, few days before memo leaked (talking about 2010 quarters 3 and 4):

At the end of Q2 it had 39% market share. Then in Q3 and Q4, suddenly – catastrophically – Nokia growth slowed to anemic, for the first time for as long as I can remember, Nokia’s quarterly growth was the slowest of any of the biggest 6 smartphone makers, and far slower than the industry. Nokia’s market share crashed to 33% after Q3 and down to (about) 28% after Q4. In six months, Nokia destroyed 11 points of market share – it abandoned one quarter of its total market – in half a year! This reminds me of the disasterous suicide-ride that Motorola embarked upon, but even in its worst period, never did Motorola lose a quarter of its market share in any six month period. I don’t mean this is the end for Nokia, but the signs are very dangerous, if two quarters have already gone like this, the cause is no freak accounting error or component shortage, it is a major systematic problem that has to be corrected immediately before Nokia finds itself ranked 3rd or 5th or – like Motorola which went from 2nd to 9th in all mobile phones (smartphones and dumbphones combined) in only 4 years. Right now the Nokia market share is not in decline, it is in a dive.” [1]

Nokia has lost this lead, and its N97 or its N8 or its N900 or its E7 are only ‘me too’ devices, nowhere near the real global leadership. Nokia has lost the battle in the second of the corners.” [1]

Tomi Ahonen was really agreeing with Stephen Elop until Windows Phone was brought in. After that Tomi has really looked like – in his words – “a certifyable madman“.

REASON 3 – COLLAPSE OF EMPLOYEE CONFIDENCE

The moment the CEO issued that memo, his confidence as Nokia CEO collapsed.

The memo was not seen that bad internally, as we knew where the company was heading. But I kind of agree here. It’s not the memo, it is the way transition from Symbian to Windows Phone was announced. That killed employee motivation. Delayed delivery of Symbian Belle can be partially credited to it.

REASON 4 (and first ELE) – RATNER EFFECT

UPDATE 12-Aug-2012:
I originally did not touch this issue as it is so obvious I thought Tomi would fix it ASAP. But no, it’s still there. Has anyone seen “the ultimate troll picture?”
It says “Use The Force, Harry!”, crediting it to Gandalf and illustrating Jean-Luc Picard from Star Trek. So – as a trolling purpose – that photo intentionally mixes up Star Wars, Star Trek, Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings. Just to make people go ranting about “no you got it wrong!!”
So why am I mentioning this? Well, Tomi’s text is:
It is an ELE as we saw in the movie First Contact (you remember, Jodie Foster hears the first radio beacon from outer space and then mankind builds the space travel machine to send her to visit aliens..)
That’s mixing “First Contact”(Star Trek movie), “Contact” (movie he describes) and “Deep Impact” (movie actually using terms “ELE” and “extinction level event”). See the resemblance?
Moments like tis make me suspect Tomi actually writes the whole blog just because he likes to do massive scale trolling. But back to Ratner effect:

Tomi is willing to go on about the memo (memo he apparently agreed with, remember?) causing “Ratner Effect” among sales staff. Could be. But considering how little memo was eventually headlined, I’d rather count the retail issue to be caused by the strategy announcement. Read here more about my view on it. Please also note that resales problem had to exist beforehand or Nokia would not have lost market share.

REASON 5 (and second ELE) – TIMING OF MICROSOFT ANNOUNCEMENT

Abandoning Symbian is not cause to fire Elop. The decision to terminate Symbian as Nokia’s primary smartphone platform was taken – and communicated – well before Elop came to town. If you want to blame anyone for the end of Symbian – you must blame the previous CEO, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo who was clearly a bad CEO and caused harm to Nokia.

Thanks Tomi, I will. And to your long rant about Elop’s strategy, go read my recent post here. It tells you that I agree to a degree on this and is way better than the bitter ranting full of stuff listed in my demand for Tomi’s admit of fraud.

The Osborne Effect bankrupted Osborne Computer company.

That has been said to be not true, by the way. [2]

REASON 6 – MEEGO

Okay, first of all I would have loved to see MeeGo strategy in use. And yes, N9 is in many technical details superior to Lumia 900. But I don’t like the way tom presents this. He gives us “the table”. There are few interesting points I want to take here. These are MeeGo vs. Windows Phone comparisons:

MeeGo                      | Windows Phone 7.5
---------------------------+-----------------------------------------
New from ground up         | Development of PC and smartphone Windows
Is designed 'mobile' first | Is designed PC first
Is mobile optimized        | Is mobile compromised/PC optimized

What had Tomi been drinking? Windows Phone is as much Desktop Windows as MeeGo is Mainframe Linux. Oh and he chooses to play the “make fool out of me” card saying “phones such as N950 and N900 have been produced and could be manufactured within weeks of ramp-up time“. Note that this aims to sell N900 with MeeGo installed to it. If this does not sound like a problem, read my recent blog post here. It’s in the “HOW ABOUT N950 (AND N900)?” part. And in the end of that post I also cover the possibility to return to MeeGo path now.

As said, I personally would have liked to see MeeGo strategy in use. However, the stuff Tomi Ahonen fills this section with is mostly classless. Let’s just say that either strategy could have worked and we will never know for sure. Not a reason to fire CEO, IMHO.

REASON 7 – N9

Okay, I like Symbian, I like MeeGo, I like N9. I don’t know why Nokia chose WP. However, this text is based on stuff like this:

I estimated N9 sales for Q4 and Q1 as part of my regular quarterly smartphone statistics service here on this blog. The N9 has so far produced 1.1 Billion dollars of revenues and 140 million dollars of profits to the smartphone unit of Nokia

Well, he has his own math behind it and he has not been willing to take any corrective comments. It all starts from his blog about Nokia not giving out Lumia or N9 sales figures. In brief:

Luckily I didn’t have to do the math for this, the nice people at All About Symbian had tracked the numbers (read through the comments) and calculated the limits, finding N9 sales to be between the level of 1.5 million and 2.0 million units in Q4.” [3]

Now the interesting part is (and this has been handed to Tomi so often in the comments that he definitely has heard it): The commenters were reading decreased Symbian sales number (year-on-year) as if that was quarter-to-quarter and then assumed the “missing units” were filled with N9. These are commenters in a web forum, already pointed out to be wrong in the same forum and Tomi Ahonen uses them as a source!?! I have more thorough coverage of the issue here.

On a separate note, N9 had language support for way more languages than Windows Phone. Why does Tomi ahonen blame Elop for selling N9 in “bizarre distant lands like Kazakhstan and New Zealand” if N9 actually fits better to those markets? [3] Isn’t it sensible to aim Windows Phone only to markets where existing language packs cover the area?

REASON 8 – N950

REASON 9 – MELTEMI

I kind of covered these in my recent blog post ( here ). Please read it if you did not already.

RAIZON NUMERO DIX (and third ELE) – RETAIL SALES

Ironically, this is now duplicating the Ratner effect. So I went through this already. And we somehow keep getting this:

Spoiler alert – Lumia series has the highest return rates in Nokia smartphone history.

…still with no reference to any sensible/credible source. (Read here what I mean.)

REASON 11 – CARRIER RELATIONS

Sun Tzu taught us: “Go read here.”

REASON 12 – ECOSYSTEM

Well Tomi is ranting about usage level of Ovi Store compared to other app stores. I kind of would assume that in a world where installed base of smartphones consist mainly of Nokia devices and Series 40 devices access the same Ovi Store, that store indeed gets the highest usage data!

REASON 12a as they say in New York City elevators that have no 13 – CHINA MOBILE

This is nice. Tomi takes the whole section just for the assumption that China Mobile adds Nokia to operator boycott due to new strategy. Assuming such boycott existed, (see carrier relations), this could be true. On the other hand, does Tomi really assume Nokia did not have any discussions with major operators before strategy change? I guess he does. But if you want to see some of his China numbers in action, try here.

And even more:

Yes, Mr Elop, did you want to tell China Mobile that your Nokia will not continue with MeeGo and you will rather go with Windows Phone, a platform for which no Chinese apps exist.

Hmm… Let’s get back to this in “Lumia” part, shall we?

REASON 14 – NOKIA SERVICES

Elop has sold Nokia’s mobile advertising arm, one of the ten biggest on the planet!

Wow. I thought he sold TV and Radio advertising unit and kept the mobile. That’s what the news said. Read here.

Elop sold the Nokia Money project which had alredy taken 12% of the mobile money market of India (the world’s second largest mobile market, and one where very few have traditional banking accounts).

Umm… 12% of Mobile money market of India? How about 2%? (Read here)

REASON 15 (and fourth ELE) – LUMIA

I guess I already mentioned I would have liked MeeGo and that N9 is indeed technically superior to Lumia 900? I assume the strategy was not aiming towards technical specs. What annoys me are things like “The notorious 101 faults list” that is just “I’ll now pick 101 things I don’t like in Windows Phone 7” which could be done to any device such as iPhone or Samsung Galaxy S III. Sure, the list would be different and SGSIII could do BT file transfer, but that kind of a list is just a way to tell “I like product X more than product Y”. (Plus that N9 couples in to some of the complaints, apparently list was made using Symbian / WP7 specs side-by-side.) Now list is not made by Tomi Ahonen but he certainly loves to use it. He even links us to his own blog for it. He has there copy-paste from original list, containing some items:

65.       FM radio doesn’t work on speaker.
(Nokia introduced FM radios to its handsets and have had this feature for nearly a decade. It may not be relevant to you, most of my readers, but remember, most of Nokia’s phones are sold in the Emerging World where for many, their first ever FM radio the person owned – was the one that came on their Nokia phone. Those FM radios are used very often with the speaker playing the radio broadcast such as for example farm and factory workers who can’t use earphones for getting the wires caught in the work)

88.       Cannot save new contacts from call history.” [4]

Unfortunately both items have been removed from original list as they were not true. Tomi’s blog? Tomi has there a comment saying they have been removed from original list – blog post has them still. And more:

85.       Phone can be rebooted without unlocking to bypass security lock.

96.       No silent option (no vibrate and no ring).” [4]

Both reworded in original site. No, you don’t bypass security lock by rebooting the device. (And yes, Tomi: you can shut down your precious E7 or N8 or N9 by long-pressing the power key even while it’s locked. Take 6-8 seconds. It’s said to you in the comments.) And yes, silent non-vibrate option is there, you just need to define vibrate separately in the settings and it applies to silent mode too. Hardly count that as fatal flaw. Both rewordings are highlighted also in comments of Tomi’s Blog. Fixed? No. And he now guides everyone go and read.

Or that you can’t save draft SMS text messages? What moron designed this thing?

Don’t know but Nokia removed it from Series 40 devices years ago. You really should read comments in your blog.
(Thanks to nick Tomifan from Tomi’s blog for all the previous data.)

Now that was about the list. And even more about Tomi’s unwillingness to fix mistakes in his blog. Let’s try more:

Lumia is not suited for Asian consumers, say the operators. Give us Symbian phones instead – come on, China Mobile went so far they actually said, we’ll take this Lumia phone but give it to me without the Windows, put Symbian on it instead.

Honest! China Mobile looked at the early specs of the Lumia 800, refused it, and said put these same specs to a Symbian device, and don’t leave out the good stuff we get standard nowadays on Symbian either.. Look at the Nokia 801T and compare to 800 Lumia. China mobile essentially forced Nokia to go back and reverse engineer the Lumia to take Windows out and put Symbian in.

Okay Tomi! I’ll now look at Nokia 801T and compare to 800 Lumia:

Lumia 800 [5]

Nokia 801T [6]

No, can’t see the connection. Problem is, Tomi is now mixing Lumia 800C (CDMA phone for China Telecom) and Nokia 801T (TD-SCDMA phone for China Mobile). There are very few TD-SCDMA phones from Nokia altogether, none of them with Windows Phone – yet. Considering the development cycle, Nokia simply has not had time enough to make one so far.
What comes to Lumia 800C, it is first Windows Phone for CDMA networks and runs Chinese apps too, unlike Tomi said in China Mobile part. [7] One would assume “six-time bestselling author of hardcover telecoms/tech books” knows at least this much?

REASON 16 – iPHONE ENVY

Elop has been culling Nokia’s smartphone product lines and making his phones become ever more tightly clones of iPhones.

Excuse me?
Nokia smartphones out 2010: 5233, 5250, 6700, C5, C6, C7, E73, E5, N8 (that’s 9)
Nokia smartphones out 2011: E6, N9, X7, 600, 700, 701, Lumias 610, 710 and 800 (that’s 9 again)

Yes, I know 2012 looks bad. Let’s see what they come up with WP8. For the “clones of iPhones” I have to assume he refers to this what he said himself earlier:

Nokia has systematically been adopting idiotic ideas from the iPhone, which are not industry-conforming, and in particular, which will infuriate loyal Nokia owners.” [8]

That is what Tomi said in January 2011, before Windows Phone strategy existed. At that time Elop had been so little time in house he could not have affected decisions done on N8 or E7. Still Tomi then listed all the stuff here, including this:

A little while ago maybe it was in 2009, Nokia announced a strange decision – they would be reducing their product portfolio.” [9]

Yes, you said that in January 2011. Thank you Tomi for blaming Elop on that now.

REASON 17 – SKYPE

Sun Tzu taught us: “Read here for false claim of Stephen Elop admitting Skype boycott, here for Skype -based boycott and here for the whole thing.”

REASON 18 – SAMSUNG

Tomi makes one chapter on Elop saying that he isn’t losing sleep over Samsung. I’d be more worried if Nokia CEO is not going to sleep before Nokia leads the market again.

Saying that does not mean Stephen Elop does not know how badly Samsung dominates markets. And that did not start 2011 either, as I pointed out before.
Oh yeah, I think I got a link in one comment. It is telling that in January 2011 (before burning platforms) Nokia was already “just not selling” in… Sweden! Yes, it’s the second closest market to Finland – home ground of Nokia. [10]
Instead people buy… Android. Guess who made majority of those already in January 2011?

REASON 19 – WINDOWS 8

Covered this here.

FOR THE GRAND CONCLUSION

I wrote my longest blog without sleep the past 48 hours to tell you the story of Sun Tzu and the Art of Nokisoft Microkia.

You should have taken the sleep instead, Tomi. Honestly.

I would like to demand Tomi Ahonen to publicly admit his fraud. Again. It’s here.

Now he gave us 19 reasons to fire Elop. Fair enough for me to give 19 reasons to admit his fraud:

  1. Tomi Ahonen keeps repeating a twisted truth of highly profitable Nokia at end of 2010, ignoring the fact that he has himself said Nokia was in a dive after losing over 25% of its market share. In Q3 and Q4 2010 alone.
  2. In January 2011 Tomi Ahonen communicated to the world that Nokia was losing market share and going to drop down to 3rd or 5th place in race for largest smartphone maker. Today he claims everything was fine, even though Nokia did drop.
  3. Tomi Ahonen has been deliberately trying to hurt even more Nokia – company already in worst situation of its history. Imagine not only kicking opponent that is down but also spraying mace all over his face – that’s the level of beating we see in his blog.
  4. Tomi Ahonen has blamed Stephen Elop’s burning platform memo to be cause of Nokias problems, when at the same time he said comments in line with the content of memo before the memo even came out.
  5. Tomi Ahonen denies the facts that Nokia devices sales were slowing down in contrast to growth of industry in 2010 and refuses to admit that dropped sales figures of Q1 2011 cannot be explained by “Elop Effect”.
  6. Tomi Ahonen writes biased hate text of Windows Phone platform just because he would have chosen Meego.
  7. Tomi Ahonen claims Nokia N900 can be altered to run Nokia’s MeeGo swipe UI in few weeks.
  8. Tomi Ahonen claims N950 would be in commercial sales shape in few weeks.
  9. Tomi Ahonen uses web rumours of Meltemi project as source of his Nokia strategy visions
    (I do agree in most sense here but what kind of consultant works based on rumours and leaks from web?)
  10. In order to explain drop of sales, talks of resales boycott and does not admit that market share dive from 2010 already indicates resales problem.
  11. Tomi Ahonen introduced fouled-up theory of carrier boycott and is spreading lies to back it up.
  12. Tomi Ahonen deliberately mixes usage data based on installed base and trends based on sold devices.
  13. Tomi Ahonen is twisting numbers and faking product details about Nokia’s sales in China.
  14. Tomi Ahonen writes lies about Nokia’s sold assets.
  15. Tomi Ahonen ignores both his own reports and news of Nokia’s worsening sales and blames Lumia line for not selling (Lumia line came to market after over a year of constant market share drop of 15% or more per quarter).
  16. Tomi blames Elop of things not even done or things that were done by previous Nokia management.
  17. Tomi Ahonen invented Skype-originated boycott and spreads lies to prove it.
  18. Tomi Ahonen uses a single sentence of one interview as a proof of mismanagement.
  19. Tomi Ahonen says Nokia moving to Windows Phone 8 is “Osborne Effect” but does not see moving to Symbian^3 as such.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/undesirable-at-any-price-what-happened-to-nokia-who-invented-the-smartphone.html

[2] The Osborne Myth – Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect#The_Osborne_Myth

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/01/how-many-lumia-sales-as-nokia-and-microsoft-ashamed-to-reveal-number-lets-count-and-compare-to-n9-me.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/the-i-wish-i-had-known-this-list-about-101-things-wrong-with-windows-phone-smartphones-like-nokia-lu.html

[5] http://www.puhelinvertailu.com/uutiset.cfm/2011/10/26/nokia_esitteli_ensimmaisen_windows_phone_-puhelimensa_lumia_800_n

[6] http://gadgetrelease.com/nokia-801t-modern-smartphone-for-china-market/

[7] http://press.nokia.com/2012/03/28/china-telecom-and-nokia-launch-first-cdma-windows-phone-in-china/

[8] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/undesirable-at-any-price-what-happened-to-nokia-who-invented-the-smartphone.html

[9] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/return-of-the-jedi-nokia-can-be-saved-here-is-the-how.html

[10] http://www.swedishwire.com/component/content/article/1:companies/8211:iphone-and-android-smash-nokia-in-sweden

[11] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/the-sun-tzu-of-nokisoftian-microkia-mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-whose-the-baddest-of-them-all-waterloo/comments/page/4/#comments

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