No – I still don’t have mole inside Nokia to leak me stuff. No big leaks here, sorry.

But Nokia is going to publish its Q2 results on Thursday, July 19th. Everybody is waiting. Tomi Ahonen and I will both dress to our finest suits and be in first row with popcorn and cola.
Okay, perhaps suits, popcorn and cola were too much. And I’ll be enjoying my summer holiday and read the results from newspaper on next day or something.
Why? Because we already know what is coming.

NOKIA Q2 2012 RESULTS 2 DAYS BEFOREHAND!!!

Results for Q2 are going to be horrid. Operating margin (non-IFRS) in the second quarter will be similar to or below the first quarter 2012 level – that is approximately negative 4%. Gross margin will decline, particularly in the Smart Devices business unit. Net sales in the Mobile Phones and Smart Devices business units will go down, particularly in India, the Middle East and Africa and China.
Unit sales down.
Profit margin down.
Automatically from first one – market share down. Instead of 8% we get to see something like 6%.

Why? Because Tomi Ahonen told us so?

No. It’s because Nokia told us so over 3 months ago. [1] But of course I’ll go a bit deeper to what Tomi will tell us in few days:

NOKIA Q2 2012 RESULTS BY TOMI AHONEN (FORECAST FROM EX-NOKIAN)

Tomi starts by telling us how the results are brutal, catastrophic or disastrous. If he gets nice, he’ll just say they are “not pretty”. Then he will tell us once again how Nokia was still profitable in Q4 2010, increasing sales, etc. and then he goes to tell how Elop Effect destroyed Nokia, which would otherwise still be profitable and increasing sales. Most likely he’ll rant a bit about how N9 would have sold better than Lumias and tells how inferior Lumia line is and how Symbian phones and N9 together outsold Lumias (they most likely did, considering few last quarters). I assume he’ll return to his forecast, read here about my feelings on the methods used so far. (In the end of that post is my forecast on what Tomi will do and in comments section you can find my forecast on Nokia’s Market share – all 3 of them.) If profit warning from Nokia is even slightly true, Tomi’s 5% or 6% forecast hits close.

Oh yes, he most likely demands CEO Stephen Elop to be fired – right now. Most likely says he’s incompetent.

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TAKEN BY NOKIA

Of course Nokia will take immediate actions to fix problems of this size, right? You know – fire CEO or something? I can tell those too! I’ll list them here:

1.
2.
3.

No typo there – none coming. Nokia took actions June 14th already. Strategy has been set, this was seen beforehand. They continue by the strategy until something surprising happens. This was not a surprise.
In the end, we will see bad news still and Tomi’s blog (or mine) will not change anything in Nokia management. Dogs bark, but the caravan goes on.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://press.nokia.com/2012/04/11/nokia-lowers-devices-services-first-quarter-2012-outlook-and-provides-second-quarter-2012-outlook/

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