Tomi Ahonen has gone through Nokia’s Q2 numbers. I hate it when he mixes valid data and false claims into a mixture. It is really frustrating to read something where you have to suspect every sentence. Luckily, he spends lots of time on AT&T Lumia sales. I can put that into one sentence:
Massively below expectations.
And Tomi spends 650 words to do the same. And what he ends up to?
“AT&T could not have sold more than 320,000 units of Lumia in Q2.” 
Tomi, why did you bother? Asymco already gave us analysis that installed base of Nokia Lumia in US is 330 000 units.  Even if they happened to be off by few percent, it’s still giving us the ballpark. So amount of all Lumias sold in US for Q2 2012 falls then to somewhere below 200 000. Minus T-Mobile Lumia 710 from that and we are getting to ballpark of 100 000 to 150 000. Tops. (Really rough estimates from someone who is trying to be positive for Nokia – i.e. me.)
That is a rock bottom. Literally.
I’m not planning to lie here. So people were expecting one million Lumias sold in US. Now Nokia said they sold 4M Lumias globally. Nokia has so poor market penetration in US that expecting 25% of their global sales happening in United States is not valid.
Ironically, by figures it seems to me that Tomi is the one being optimistic here.
Now I made my prediction on what Tomi would say some time back (it’s here). Unfortunately Market Shares are not up yet, so we have left to hear what Tomi comes up with on that. For other points, he said this is disaster, how Nokia was still profitable in Q4 2010, increasing sales, etc. and told how Symbian phones outsold Lumias.
Quite close, I’d say.
But hey, let’s get to fouled-up data, shall we?
FUD TOMI FEEDS US THIS TIME
“As we saw in recent analysis, the US campaign cost 450 dollars per Lumia sold, for a return of 45 dollars per device. That is not a viable business in anyone’s book.” 
Now I agree with Tomi here. That definitely is not viable business in a long term. But from his presentation one would assume Nokia makes loss of 405 dollars per Lumia sold. Far from it. “Lumia 900 requires $209 in component costs to manufacture, according to IHS, plus an $8 manufacturing cost. The phone is priced at $450, unsubsidized“.  I know Tomi uses the news of analysts saying Nokia spent $450 for each Lumia sold and I don’t know how they ended up to 45 dollars, but from those starters we are talking about return of $230 per device, minus shipping costs. (Windows Phone OS becomes practically free because of the support money from MS). One could assume also Lumia sales from outside US were counted. However, even if that was true, Nokia makes profit of $45 per device sold, not loss of $405.
The most important thing here is that this is money spent on product launch. Apple spends extra cash to advertise new iPhone when it comes out. Samsung spent a truckload of money to push Galaxy S III. But apparently in Tomi’s book Nokia is only company that should not do this (or only one that does not take that into account when they plan new products). Oh, well…
Tomi gives us quite a few words about Symbian selling well, especially in China.
It’s good that Symbian sells, especially as Nokia is still putting efforts in making it more appealing. See my post here, “what was Stephen Elop thinking” part.
(So I can’t really follow his logic why Symbian selling well is a bad thing.)
“Windows Phone is not viable as an OS. It is being force-fed to unsuspecting customers, who end up hating it. If you’ve heard Nokia spinning a story about a Nielsen survey of Lumia owners loving it, and 95% saying they would recommend Lumia to their friends, that sounds very suspicious, doesn’t it? It sounds like those communist Eastern European ‘elections’ where the President always got 95% or more of the total vote haha.. So whats the story in Balamory? The Nielsen ‘survey’ is a PAID study by Nokia !!! It is utterly biased and non-credible.” 
Oh, crap! My 330 000 Lumia’s installed base is coming from Nielsen survey! I guess Tomi is right then and AT&T sold 320 000 units. LOL.
Seriously, let’s have a look at Nielsen survey, shall we? Tomi did not give reference to either survey, which is always suspecting news. We indeed know Nokia hired Nielsen to do the survey back in April. It’s said in the news. And in fact, Nokia needs to hire some agency to do surveys as they don’t have some secret “survey division” of their own. But biased data as results of such surveys do not serve purpose of the one ordering the survey (they need to know how much their product is liked) or the one performing the survey (they need to keep their credibility). Question then is: how credible is Nielsen? Looking at their own website is not objective either, so let’s go look at Wikipedia:
“Nielsen is a publicly held global information and media company, and is one of the world’s leading suppliers of marketing information (Nielsen Consumer, formerly ACNielsen), media information and TV ratings (Nielsen Media Research), online intelligence (Nielsen Online) and mobile measurement (Nielsen Mobile).” 
I’d say it is reasonable to assume that Nielsen does not do biased surveys on demand. But there is one thing here that Tomi doesn’t (intentionally or not) say: survey was done BEFORE it turned out current Lumia’s don’t get full WP8 OS update, but just stripped-down refresh. So results could be lower today, or then not. At least I would like to hear what would the results be if survey was redone.
And “PAID survey”? Have you heard the term “there is no such thing as free lunch“? It may be surprise to Tomi, but there are no unpaid surveys either. Somebody needs to pay for the work done, you know?
Now Tomi proposes other figures, without using reference either:
“There is one other study, a genuinely unbiased neutral survey of the same issue, by Yankee Group – which found the total opposite – 41% of specifically American Lumia owners rated it such utter rubbish smartphone, that they gave it a rating of 1 (worst) on a scale of 5 to 1. Four out of ten Lumia owners in America right now, rate their smartphone the worst thing they’ve ever seen.” 
Yankee Group survey is from May, done month later than Nielsen Survey and still before WP8 update info. How come it is so different? One thing is the Yankee survey only used 111 people for results. So basically one person is responsible for 1% of the result. Tomi was recently laughing in Twitter for something that used 50 people for the scope of survey. Apparently 111 is fine, then?
But this small part that Tomi leaves out is rather interesting: “On a 1-5 rating scale, 41% of survey participants scored the handset as a ‘1’, with an average score of only 2.5 out of 5.” 
So… We have average of 2.5 (in scale of 1 to 5) where 41% already voted for 1? That means the remaining 59% have voted average of… 3.5!
If 41% voted for 1, you’d assume that fairly many voted for 2 also? Let’s say 28% as any survey done right should have some kind of gauss curve in it. Guess what? In that case EVERY SINGLE respondent left voted for 5, with no 3’s or 4’s in between! In any spread we try, there must be:
-either some pile-up in the HIGH end of results OR
-very high concentration of 1’s compared to otherwise flat results.
Now Tomi said it right: “It sounds like those communist Eastern European ‘elections’ where the President always got 95% or more of the total vote“. Have you read about Russian election spread of percentages? It’s about odd pile-ups you get if you don’t have authentic take of people for your statistics.  Fits to picture.
For Nielsen survey we know Nokia paid for it. That explains why it focuses on Lumia 900.
For Yankee Group “genuinely unbiased neutral survey” one can only wonder why they focused on a single model of one manufacturer, who paid for it and what was the motive of Yankee’s client.
Tomi questions Nielsen as unreliable. I have to admit I find Yankee group survey just as questionable. Probably truth lies in between.
(Moving on with Tomi’s FUD)
“Some carriers have already resorted to literally one penny deals, others have stopped total Lumia sales like T-Mobile Germany (the biggest carrier/operator in Europe’s biggest country and very big Nokia client).” 
STOP THE PRESS!
T-Mobile Germany has not “stopped total lumia sales” – it sells Lumia 800 and Lumia 710  and according to T-Mobile official statement they did “portfolio decision” not to include Lumia 900 too. Read my comments about his previous post.
WAIT – STOP THE PRESS ONCE MORE!
Lumia 900 is selling by price of 1 US cent subsidized by AT&T . It’s going to cost you 575.99 US dollars unsubsidized . AT&T has increased its subsidy in order to sell Nokia phone and Tomi sees this as bad thing?!?
In contrast, T-Mobile Germany sells Samsung Galaxy S III by the price of 1 euro.  Since Galaxy S III launched later than Lumia 900, I assume Samsung is in deeper trouble than Nokia?
(I can’t believe he is still continuing that after people are commenting about it in his blog. I’m just copying my previous blog text instead of covering it further.)
“And the smart ones, like Verizon (biggest carrier in USA) or China Mobile (biggest carrier in the biggest country on the planet and biggest smartphone market, China) laugh as they refused to take any Lumia and never got into this quagmire of upset customers.” 
“Like China Mobile said, when they saw the Lumia 800. They said, yes, I will take that smartphone, but remove Windows from it, and put in Symbian – and then also remove all the Lumia nonsense and make it a normal Nokia device. The result is the 801T, a close cousin of the Lumia 800 but far more capable and obviously loved by the Chinese.” 
I covered China Mobile case before here. Their 3G network technology is a clear reason not to promote ordinary Lumias. Good bedtime story but nothing else. Case closed.
“From Q2 of last year, immediately after the Elop Effect, Nokia’s migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones reversed, to falling behind the industry average.” 
This claim and graph added to it is most weird thing from Tomi Ahonen to date. It is clearly fouled-up data, obvious baseless claim and anyone can check it. Read full coverage here.
“Nokia is headed to 2% market share by year-end – it was 29% only 18 short months ago, the first full quarter when Elop took charge (with Nokia smarpthone sales growing and highly profitable and desirable)” 
Yes it was 29%. And growth at that time might have continued as well as “monkeys might fly out of my butt” as Tomi put it. (Read here for details)
“And if some independent programmers were able to do an Android port for the N9 this fast, why could Nokia not move to Android, rather than stay with Windows, and release the N900, the N9 and the N950 on Android, like next month! Like yes, in August! Come on, three Android Nokia smartphones could be sold next month, rather than live in the hope of some la-la-land Windows ‘third’ ecosystem.” 
This goes beyond all unbelievable texts so far here. Nokia shipping three products with some ported proof-of-concept SW in next month?!?
I already feel those winged monkeys coming out!!!
I still say I would love to see Tomi as CEO of Nokia. For morbid curiosity, that is. Imagine him telling R&D to “release N900, N9 and N950 on Android next month” – just to hear some unfortunate truths about testing, type approvals, verifications and some unimportant thing as “shippable condition” that he does not seem to care about. Apparently in “some la-la-land” anything that is not Microsoft or Windows is ready to shops, quality aside.
It’s sad he never really started to dig why Nokia market share started to decline. For the last proposal I’d say he is so close to the source of it.
 T-Mobile Germany list of subsidized Nokia phones
 Nokia Lumia 900 black unlocked
 Samsung Galaxy S III