It’s been a bit quiet in the front of my blog, sorry about that. Please do understand I do this on my spare time and recently I have not had time to spare. ūüėČ

I’d like to cover Mr. Ahonen’s coverage on market shares a bit, but first let’s look at some other stuff he has thrown in meanwhile:

You need a large portfolio of handsets, at various price points. This is what Nokia had. This is not what Apple has. This is what Samsung has. Even as Apple is seen as a company with ‘only one phone’ model, in reality Apple sells 3 separate iPhones today (iPhone 4S, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS) and also the iPod Touch and the iPad, which in some ways are close cousins and technically viable alternatives for some considering an iPhone. So even Apple has expanded from 2007, when it truly sold only one iPhone in only one color, to now at least 3 clearly distinct iPhones, in several technical configurations too, and then two closely related devices, so Apple has grown its portfolio, not shrunk it. Meanwhile Samsung is continuously expanding its product range. But Elop¬†has shrunk the Nokia smartphone portfolio.” [1]

I do not deny Nokia’s current portfolio is not as large as it was in 2011, but problem is: it WAS as large in 2011 as in 2010. All under Elop management. And of course, in current market share situation, why would Nokia introduce more models? Samsung introduces more models as their market share grows. Nokia decreases portfolio as market share shrinks. Makes sense, no?
As icing on a cake, Tomi is blaming the shrunk of portfolio to Elop. This is from Tomi Ahonen himself:

A little while ago maybe it was in 2009, Nokia announced a strange decision ‚Äď they would be reducing their product portfolio.” [2]

Wow, a year before Elop¬†joined. Must be his fault. But there is no point covering all the stuff Tomi has said. Most of time he¬†has been ranting about ALL the things he listed in his “Sun Tzu” post of 30 000 words. I tried to cover it in my post, read it here. I focus now on “new stuff”.

“Exclusive rights” to operator

Nokia has announced some operators would be having exclusive rights to sell certain Windows phone models. Similar to T-Mobile US selling Lumia 710 and AT&T selling Lumia 900. This was not huge success story in US, yet Nokia plans the same thing for Europe. So Tomi says it is stupid to restrict yourself to a single operator instead of selling through all of them.
I agree, people have low tendency to switch operator, so you should sell through all carriers. Especially since in Europe there are no technology restrictions such as TD-SCDMA network of China Mobile (only TD-SCDMA phones from Nokia are made on top of Symbian, read more here) or CDMA+LTE network of Verizon USA (Nokia has not made a single CDMA+LTE phone on any platform and that is to my knowledge due to chipset not being supported by any Nokia platform prior to WP8).
US strategy has obviously suffered from bad partner choice (forced by technology limitations). But news was not about US, it was about Europe. And in Europe Nokia has not had “wrong partner”, they so far have not had “primarily pushing Lumia”¬†operator partner at all.
So at the point where we know Lumia line is not selling in wanted amounts in Europe, one has to ask which is worse: All operators selling Lumia “among the others” or one actually promoting it?

SELLING Qt

Nokia sold the Qt developer tools to Digia¬†of Finland. Elop¬†said the future of mobile was determined by ecosystems. Qt was the last major asset Nokia still had and owned, to control a major mobile ecosystem, and compared to Windows, Qt could provide an ecosystem to low-cost smartphnoes¬†and even more vitally, to Nokia featurephones¬†running S40 that Windows Phone price points will not match. He now killed that. Utter madness.” [3]

Nokia is totally ramping down Symbian and MeeGo. What good does it do to burn money on Qt they do not use? As it was said in comments of Tomi’s blog:
As an analogy, if you move to Sahara desert many can say it wasn’t a clever thing to do. Once there, if you sell your raincoat, well that’s just a logical consequence.
Only real issue there is the price. One can always say Nokia should have sold it for more. We do not know if that was even a possibility.

SELLING PATENTS

And Elop¬†continued his bizarre fire sale of Nokia patents, selling a batch for esssentially¬†peanuts, to Vringo.” [3]

Now this is interesting indeed. For all that I’ve heard the patents are old. I mean – OLD. So Nokia has no direct benefit in owning the patents as they are (or will soon be) outdated. And since Vringo cannot sue Nokia for using¬†any of those patents anyway, it’s a nice move to get some cash. At the same time, we know Nokia is not making a big mistake since their patent portfolio is actually increasing, as said in Q2 report:

We continued to strengthen our patent portfolio and filed more patents in the
first half of 2012 than any previous six month period since 2007.” [4]

MARKET SHARES HIT THE DECK

So we finally have the market share readings. Tomi wrote a long blog about it, I’ll try to cover the FUD:

We hear that Nokia’s Lumia series is so hated, that four out of ten who buy it rate it that bad, they give it a rating of 1 on the scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is best.” [5]

It’s the Yankee survey I covered before. It is interesting on the spread on answers and I would not count it as a reliable source. Read full coverage in here.

We hear that the Lumia series has the worst sales success, and biggest return rates Nokia has ever seen.” [5]

Now I have tried to cover this issue. So far Tomi has not even ONCE given a sensible source for such a claim. And we don’t get one now either. But read my view on it here.

Nokia smartphone market share that now is 6.7% will be down to between 2% and 3%, counting all Lumia/Windows Phone, Symbian and MeeGo sales, combined.” [5]

Naturally he refers to his own forecast. Interestingly, he does not say he was “the most accurate forecaster” this time, like he did previously.
It could be of course because he has made three forecasts on Q2 results. They are 7%, 6% and 5%, in chronological order. And since he has now twice said¬†his prediction is too high¬†(first prediction of 7%, then prediction of 6%), interestingly the first one of 7% is the most accurate here. I wonder why he does not stick to that one and say Nokia will have 6% market share at end of year, since it’s according to that prediction?
Read here for my full view on the whole issue.
(BTW, my prediction of 6,5% in the comments section of that post¬†is now closer than Tomi’s. And it’s my second last forecast, not third like Tomi’s.)

T-Mobile for example in Germany refuses to even launch the Lumia 900.” [5]

This may be first time Tomi corrects something since the date I started my blog. Previously he has been claiming that T-Mobile is not selling any Lumia phones anymore (which they do).

Can you imagine what we have witnessed? Two years ago Symbian was the world’s bestselling smartphone¬†OS, growing strongly (growing more than Apple’s iPhone for example, for year 2010) and then we have seen the global collapse. Just 18 months ago, Symbian powered one out of every four smartphones sold worldwide. Today its market share has fallen to 3%. In just 18 months, Symbian went from 26% to 3%, losing literally nine out of every ten customers it had (and only managing to convert one of the lost customers to the new Windows Phone OS, effectively gifting the remaining eight loyal Nokia Symbian smartphone users to Android or iOS¬†or bada). This is world record destruction of a global market leader. It was all self-induced and unnecessary, as Symbian based smarpthones were highly profitable at the time for everyone from Nokia to Fujitsu, Sharp, Panasonic, Samsung etc.” [5]

I have to use this chance to say that my previous post totally covers this. Incredible he still goes for it. If you want to see full picture of how well Symbian was doing, read it here.

Sorry for rather short post. I have some works ongoing, but I was asked in Twitter if I plan to cover any of these so I decided to do just that. ūüėČ

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/if-apple-is-running-away-from-this-strategy-and-samsung-growing-by-opposite-strategy-why-is-elop-try.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/return-of-the-jedi-nokia-can-be-saved-here-is-the-how.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/nokia-sells-set-of-patents-to-troll-and-qt-developer-tools-more-elop-madness.html

[4] http://press.nokia.com/2012/07/19/nokia-corporation-q2-2012-interim-report/

[5] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/smartphone-market-shares-q2-full-numbers-samsung-and-android-solidifying-their-leads.html

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