THIS BLOG POST IS MOSTLY OUTDATED.

Nokia comms informed that they were misunderstood and 7 million lumias is “cumulative to end of Q2 2012” [8].
TechCrunch fixed their article.
Tomi Ahonen dashed over his comment.
I’m keeping the post here.
Why?
Because this is now Tomi’s interpretation of it:

The 7 million was not cumulative up to now, it was cumulative up to about end of June.” [2]

“Up to about end of June”? Could you Tomi just admit that “over 2 million” can be like… …over 2 million?!?
That said, I dashed over the blog post, except for the count of Lumia sales. Good work TechCrunch and better luck next time.

Recently web has been filled with bad news: Nokia sold 7 million lumias to date, meaning huge drop of sales in Q3 2012. Nokia stock dropped 13%!
Apparently it all started from TechCrunch saying “Nokia: 7M Lumia Devices Sold To Date In 54 Markets.” [1]

Tomi Ahonen immediately picked it in Twitter and later in his blog, saying that Nokia sold 400 000 Lumias July-August 2012:

Then we have yet another bizarre statistic just out this week from Nokia. They said that Nokia had sold a cumulative 7 million Lumia smartphones since launch last year. That might on the very surface of it seem like a nice number, until you understand this. We know from previous Nokia statements that it sold 600K in Q4 of last year, 2M in Q1, and then 4M in Q2. That means only 400,000 total units sold of Lumia in the first two months of Q3 !!!! Wot ?? Lets put this into a table:

Period . . . . Lumia sales . . . Lumia sales per month

Q4 2011  . . . . 600,000  . . . . . 300,000
Q1 2012 . . . 2,000,000  . . . . . 667,000
Q2 2012 . . . 4,000,000 . . . . 1,333,000
Q3 2012 . . . . 400,000 . . . . . . 200,000

TOTAL . . . . 7,000,000 

The statement is official Nokia, and cumulative to this week, ie end of August. Since 6.6 million Lumia were sold by the end of Q2 of 2012, that means that since the Osborning of the Lumia series by Microsoft, the Lumia sales have truly collapsed and are at near-nothing level.” [2]

I wondered if I should make post but did not.
Now I wish I did.
So how about forgetting Tomi-statistics and using real ones?

Nokia Lumia sales according to Nokia official press releases:

having sold well over 1 million Lumia devices to date” (January 26th 2012) [4]
In the first quarter 2012, Nokia sold more than 2 million Lumia devices” [5]
Lumia Q2 volumes increased quarter-on-quarter to 4 million units.” [6]

Let’s do the math (again) “more than 2 million Lumia devices” is not 2 million as Tomi claims. It’s not 2 000 001 either. It’s something that cannot be said to be “almost 3 million” and something that is too high to be said “2 million”. Approximately 2.1 million to 2.3 million. I’ll use 2.2 as an average.

Then, Nokia said “well over 1 million to date” in January. We can read from between the lines that it’s then less than 1 million in Q4 2011 (or they would say they sold 1 million in that quarter). But being “well over” at January already, it is fair to assume it’s more than Tomi said (600 000), probably 700 000 to 900 000. I’m using 800 000 as an average. (And keep in mind that Canalys estimated 1.2 million units for Q4 2011 [7]).

So: 4 million + 2.2 million + 0.8 million = 7 million!

Naturally, I’m doing this just to mock Tomi. I could as well have used The Verge for this. They said in July after Nokia released their Q2 results that:

latest figure shows that Nokia’s Rolling Thunder approach is working at a slow and steady pace with over 7 million units shipped to date.” [3]

CONCLUSION:

Either Nokia sold 0 units in July-August timeframe (cannot be as Lumia’s still topped the sales lists in Finland, meaning that Lumia line definitely has sales higher than 0).

Or then TechCruch got it wrong and everybody followed.

REFERENCES:

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