It’s been a while since I did a FUDless version of Tomi’s blog post. This time I want to give the short version first:

So we have today seen the relaunch of Nokia Lumia now with Windows Phone 8 operating system.” [1]
Yes, there is obviously a lot of development, these new Windows Phone 8 based Nokia Lumia smartphones are – yes they are – better than the previous Lumias.” [1]
Six Lumia devices already, all made on the minority form factor and with not even one QWERTY-slider hybrid device amongst them all?
Note, this is a Nokia staple! This is what came from the Communicator line, and we saw in recent Nokia touch-screen hybrid smartphones like the N900 (on Maemo), the E7 (on Symbian) and the N950 (on MeeGo). These smartphones sell in massive numbers, especially outside of the USA where many heavily addicted smartphone users send 100 SMS text messages per day and often shift to OTT services like Whatsapp, Blackberry Messenger etc. Business users obviously appreciate a real keyboard for email uses whereas heavy Facebook and Twitter etc users on the consumer side are equally appreciative of the physical QWERTY keyboard.
I am NOT suggesting to make all Lumias QWERTY-sliders, but I DO suggest to make a couple of the series do this. ALL smartphone user surveys find that mobile messaging has more users than downloading apps, on all continents. This is a traditional Nokia competitive advantage.” [1]

END OF SHORT VERSION

Yes, that’s how much I was able to gather. And the QWERTY part is there more because I too think it is “competitive advantage” Nokia ignores. But more interesting is to see…

WHAT WAS REMOVED

Failure Version 2: Nokia Lumia Relaunch with Windows Phone 8 is Also a Total Dud (Updated)

So we have today seen the relaunch of Nokia Lumia now with Windows Phone 8 operating system. Nokia was already failing catastrophically with the first generation Lumia and then Microsoft decided to not allow those first Lumia handsets to be upgraded to Windows Phone 8. So now its back to zero and starting once again from scratch.” [1]

So we get two new Lumia smartphones by Nokia that run Windows Phone 8 (the four older Lumia models are now totally obsoleted, ‘Osborned’ in fact, as they are not compatible and cannot be upgraded from Windows Phone 7.5 to 8.0). Understand what it means. It does not mean that Nokia has now expanded from 4 to 6 Lumia models – where we might think Nokia grows sales say from 4 million last quarter to 6 million soon. No. Rather, Nokia has regressed from 4 to 2 marketable Lumia models. This cannot help Nokia grow, this is likely to produce a Nokia sales regression, dimishing versus this year Q2 when Nokia managed 4 million total Lumia sales (vs other Nokia smartphones of over 6 million, vs Blackberry sales of 8 million, HTC sales of 9 million, iPhone sales of 26 million and Samsung smartphone sales of 50 million in the same Q2. 18 months ago, before this Windows strategy was announced, Nokia had seen dramatically growing smartphone sales powered by Symbian, that produced 28 million sales per quarter).” [1]

Right. I already covered the subject of “Osborning”. Read it here: (visit link).

The Microsoft Way of trying to distort reality is to push misinformation, misleading comments and even downright lies to try to create hype. This is all part of the standard dirty tricks by Microsoft that Nokia’s CEO Stephen Elop, an ex-Microsoft exec is eager to emulate. And now we hear again, at the New York event launching the new Lumia’s today, according to live blogging by Gizmodo, that “Elop says China quickly becoming largest WP market in the world.” Yeah. And I am quickly becoming a teenage girl from Japan named Tomi haha..” [1]

Do we get to see school uniform pictures of you then? 🙂
I covered this topic recently (visit link) and I feel you have some serious clothes shopping to do. Also, you Tomi have much better track record in distorting reality if we compare those…

SPECS AS FLAGSHIP” [1]

Tomi talks a lot about new Lumias compared to old phones. Long rant, long list, not copying all of it here. He concludes it like this:

This could have been a contender. This could even have been a true challenger. But now, seriously, if an average salesrep looks at those specs, and remembers how the current and recent past Nokia smartphones have been in their specs, this is not a ‘wow’ factor smartphone. As this is the flagship from the Lumia series, it will be compared to the iPhone 5 and Samsung Note and Galaxy S3 and whatever new funky stuff will come for Christmas.” [1]

That sentence is so fun after knowing how this played out. I made a separate post about it. Read it here (visit link).

So, you thought that Nokia and Windows software show was somehow cool? City Lens? Yeah, nice AR application for Windows Phone, but its just what….. 3 YEARS behind the AR apps we’ve seen on Androids for example and that ‘obsolete’ OS called Symbian.. Mapping, navigation, please.. 100,000 apps in the Windows Phone ecosystem – is only now catching up to that ‘obsolete’ ecosystem of Ovi Store and Symbian – which by the way had far more carrier billing support and a 20x bigger addressable market size so if you are an app developer and want to earn millions, rather than thousands, you should sell to Symbian/Ovi not Windows Phone – this before we zero the installed base now with Windows Phone 8 once again. And yes, some people do buy smartphones because of their apps, but come on, iPhone and Android have 500,000 apps each. Its not even close!” [1]

Is only now catching up“? Tomi – there were 25,000 Symbian apps in Ovi store in JUNE 2011! (Rest of shop content was Series40 (Asha) Java apps, themes, ringing tones, wallpapers and such. [2] Is that “only now caught up” by Windows Marketplace count of 100,000? Don’t come and tell that large installed base of Symbian means something – from app count we can tell it didn’t. Fact is that developers did not like Symbian and that’s visible.

WHERE IS LOW END

And so we see a top-end flagship in the Lumia 920 and a mid-price 820? This makes sense why? The majority of smartphones are low-cost smartphones! 41% of all smartphones sold this year will cost under 100 Dollars (price without contract ie without handset subsidy – note the real price of an iPhone 4S is 650 dollars, not the nominal 179 dollars that it might be sold with 2 year contract). The Lumia 610 was aiming towards the lower end of mid-priced smartphones while not coming anywhere near the 100 dollar level. Now we have a far more expensive second Lumia? Why? Why why why why why?” [1]

Last year this time Nokia announced 2 Lumia smartphones for Christmas, the Lumia 800 and 710. They managed 600,000 total sales in that quarter. This time the Lumia 920 and 820 are aimed even higher on the price range, they won’t thus gain scale from lower prices (while that is where the market size is expanding massively this year). So at its peak, with 4 Lumia models this past Q2, Nokia was able to sell 4 million Windows Phone based smartphones. At the launch of the series, in the first quarter, Nokia sold 600,000 units. That is immediately a window for you to consider the scope. Thus with two models now, the scale of expectation of Christmas sales would be in the range of 600,000 to 2 million. Do you think that is ‘a success’ by any definition? Incidentially, in Q1 of this year, Nokia Lumia series did exactly that, 2 million sales.” [1]

  • N8 was announced with C7.
    Flagship and mid-range.
    Low-end devices were announced later (and at least for starters those were using older Symbian version).
  • Lumia 920 is announced with 820.
    Flagship and mid-range.
    Low-end will probably be announced later (and give high chances for first ones to use WP7, no matter how “Osborned” you Tomi feel it is).

BUT I do agree it would have been nice to hear something about the low-end.

UPDATE 23 October 2012:
Here’s the low end we got today:
http://press.nokia.com/2012/10/23/nokia-lumia-510-brings-windows-phone-to-lower-price-points/
I love to be right (announced later, using WP7)!
UPDATE 05 December 2012:
And then WP8 low-end:
http://press.nokia.com/2012/12/05/nokia-introduces-new-nokia-lumia-620/
…but of course that will not help the WP8 to gain market share. Right, Tomi?
(end of updates)

UPDATE – this next item has now been updated and corrected by Nokia, as their miscommunication. The 7 million was not cumulative up to now, it was cumulative up to about end of June.” [1]

Up to about end of June“?
About end of June“?
About“!?!?!
Since when have quarterly results been ending to “about” end of month? Could you Tomi just admit you estimated Lumia sales wrong in Q4 2011 and rounded down Q1 2012? I already pointed that out earlier (visit link).
(I brought in the whole pile of Tomi using his own figures here as it’s all covered there.) In addition, Tomi has added strike-through for the section so I won’t discuss it further.

What would 2 million Lumia sales mean in Q4 of 2012? Roughly 1%.. Yes. One percent! The latest quarter we just got results for, Nokia Lumia still managed to sell 3% of all smartphones. Symbian, yes, the ‘obsolete’ and ‘Burning Platforms’ Symbian based Nokia smartphones outsold all Lumia Windows Phone smartphones by Nokia by a ratio of about 3 to 2. This while Nokia’s own marketing admits they were unable to satisfy the heavy demand of the 808 Pureview (yes, Symbian-based 808 Pureview) in many markets.” [1]

It will be a shock to you Tomi that WP7 devices have been selling in Q3 too. So you can add that 2M on top of Q3 2012 figures once we get them.

UPDATE 23 October 2012:
Nokia sold 2.9M Lumias in Q3. So let’s assume 4.9M sold for Q4 and cehck back at beginning of 2013.
(end of update)

Nokia owned the smartphone market when Elop took over and 18 months ago Nokia sold more than Apple and Samsung – combined! Nokia was more than twice the size of its nearest rival !!! During the year 2010, Nokia grew more in new unit sales of smartphones than Apple’s iPhone!!! Yes, Nokia, that ‘Burning Platforms’ Nokia – with Symbian – grew more than Apple’s iPhone, the tech darling (and far more than Samsung or Blackberry). Nokia did this all profitably, in fact for Q4 of 2010, Nokia’s Symbian-based smartphone unit set a Nokia record in profits. Nokia’s market share in smartphones was 29% when the Windows partnership was announced. Now, after total self-destruction of the Nokia smartphone market by Nokia’s own CEO and his ‘partner’ Microsoft, Nokia’s new strategic direction, the Windows Phone based Lumia, is headed to what? About 1% market share for Q4 of 2012? This is madness!” [1]

What a load of fouled-up data! I have so well covered whole that rant in my earlier post (visit link) that I’m leaving it up to my readers to see it there.

PUREVIEW BRAND DAMAGE” [1]

Under this title Tomi has long rant I did not copy-paste here. Feel free to read the original (reference [1]). However, we semi-agree on this topic. Nokia should have communicated clearly that Pureview is not about 41mp, it’s about extraordinary imaging capabilities. This way people would not be so disappointed about 8.7mp Pureview.
I can’t include it to “fudless” version since Tomi totally ignores the floating lens stabilization, low-light capabilities and all the other of “Pureview” in 920. He talks about “imaging gimmicks” as if there would not have been anything revolutionary. (Or as if megapixels would be only thing that matters.)

UPDATE – MARKETING COMMUNICATION DISASTERS

(This part to the blog is added one day later). So we now know that Nokia messed up its marketing communications realted to the relaunch of Lumia. This is totally inexcusable, as this date was known well in advance and the importance of this launch was so great. But yes, first, Nokia was caught falsifying its video and had to apologize.” [1]

Yes, that was failure. But let’s compare Nokia and Apple a bit. Remember the iPad ad? [3] Or giant hand fiasco? [4]
Nokia apologizes their doings and tries to fix things.
Apple says consumers should not assume their adverts are reflecting reality.
I know I’m biased, but my sympathy goes to Nokia.

So, the one other rumor was that perhaps Verizon would be announced as a new Nokia carrier partner. Now, first, please remember that before AT&T started to sell Nokia Lumia smartphones, Nokia’s North American sales were 600,000 total mobile phone handsets per quarter. Now after AT&T started to sell Lumia, with the biggest new phone launch marketing campaign AT&T had ever created – supported by the biggest handset launch budget Nokia had ever done – in fact 3x bigger – and supported by massive MIcrosoft budgets too – the resulting total North American sales of Nokia mobile phones were.. 600,000 units this past quarter. Zero gain.” [1]

I wrote last year about this time my first gut feelings about how the first generation Lumia would fare in the market. Later I also gave my considered view of what all was wrong. I ended up being remarkably accurate on how utterly the first generation Lumia series would fail inspite of the hype pushed by Nokia and Microsoft.” [1]

The very latest Kantar statistics now in August 2012 tell us that for every 5 existing Nokia Symbian customers in Europe, 4 will rather buy any rival smartphone than take the Lumia.” [1]

That zero gain is actually zero loss, if plan was to replace diminishing Symbian sales with Windows Phone. That is what you said. I had to copy these three after each other since they all are addressed in my post made very recently (visit link).

So if there had been a big Verizon announcement (or a big China Mobile announcement for example) then maybe – just maybe – we might have some optimism for Lumia gains for Christmas.” [1]

BEGIN OF UPDATE 29-Oct-2012:
Verizon will be selling Nokia Lumia 822 (Verizon exclusive model): (visit link)
China Mobile will be selling Lumia 920T (China Mobile Exclusive model with TD-SCDMA support, naturally): (visit link)
END OF UPDATE
So I assume you will now flood the aether with your false claims so that nobody would notice your slip?

Instead, what did we learn? We learned that Nokia Lumia series has 13 systematic faults why it fails in all markets including the USA.” [1]

Tomi speaks as if that list of “systematic faults” was some universally correct list referred around the globe. Unfortunately it’s his own list with about 3 valid items in it. And at least one of those is more or less lost with the Windows Phone 8, meaning that these “systematic faults” are less systematic for now on. You may want to read my coverage on it (visit link).

We learned that the Lumia series has 101 faults when used by loyal Nokia smartphone owners (now with more Lumia! upgraded to 121 faults, get yours today!).” [1]

The list of 101 faults you refer to is for Windows Phone 7, not Windows Phone 8. And about 30 of the faults make some sense. And it’s not just Lumia, it’s all Windows Phones. And not all of those apply to “loyal Nokia smartphone owners” – a lot of foul claims piled to one sentence.
But this time Tomi shows us how little he keeps himself up to date. I have understood that at one point the original author of the list added 20 “Lumia specific” items…
…and managed to keep 2 of them (others were not true or apply to all WP7 devices).
That was literally months ago. I have done quite full coverage about the current state of list (visit link). Tomi speaks about the list as if it is somehow now upgraded to 121 with Lumia-specific items.

And what does that mean? It means that the Lumia series has the biggest return rates of any Nokia smartphone ever released. The stores refuse to sell the Lumia.” [1]

Based on what reference, Tomi? You haven’t given us a single source for that so far and I’ve asked for one (visit link).

And that the independent survey of Lumia owners by Yankee Group found that of Lumia owners in the USA, 4 out of 10 rate the Lumia as literally the worst phone possible (rating it a 1 out of 5 where 1 is worst and 5 is best).” [1]

Yes that “independent survey” was so interesting I made a post about it (visit link). FUD.

If you thought that Lumia and Windows Phone will somehow ‘save’ Nokia, that myth was exposed first on this blog last year, and the evidence is now overwhelming. I have now taken my first look at Elop’s attempt at Lumia version 2.0. This is not good enough, either. This will be failure 2.0. When Elop started, he traded 29% of Nokia Symbian market share for 7% with Symbian and Windows Phone. Now we start from zero again. Now we don’t get to re-set to 29%. We start from 7%. And if the same math holds, then a year from now Nokia’s smartphone share will be 1.7%.. If we want to be generous, we may see twice that, call it 3.4% or if you want to be very negative, take half of that, at 0.8%. But even then, Nokia Lumia will be the biggest remaining Windows Phone maker, and total Windows Phone market share will not be over 4%, more likely close to 2% a year from now. That is hardly a ‘third ecosystem’. This is a path to certain death. Elop has to be fired and this suicidal Windows path has to be abandoned. Nokia now needs to prepare to join Android (or Tizen) as Windows cannot save Nokia. And obviously I am expecting Nokia to be sold and split up into parts.” [1]

…right. Your “evidence” was indeed overwhelming. Luckily I had covered them already. So Tomi, don’t hold your breath while expecting Nokia to be sold.
No – wait: please hold your breath. I need a break from your FUD.
(It’s safe to recommend that to Tomi – one does not die from holding breath, just goes unconscious.)

But I do eagerly wait to see Q3 results. Tomi’s carpet-bombing of predictions has been amusing and if the news from China are even half showing comparison to global numbers, Tomi has lots of explaining (and some clothes shopping) to do.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/09/failure-version-2-nokia-lumia-relaunch-with-windows-phone-8-is-also-a-total-dud.html

[2] http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/13043_Ovi_Store_hits_6_million_downl.php

[3] http://io9.com/5580792/did-apple-cheat-to-create-its-ipad-star-trek-ads

[4] http://pocketnow.com/2012/09/11/false-advertising-apple-vs-nokia/

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