I think this touch screen folly is deserving its own post. Originally I reported Tomi’s weird statement “that only 38% of all smartphones sold now are touch-screen smartphones (which includes hybrids)“, continued by his tweet about it. I pointed out correct figure is over 90% – minor mistake from him, eh?
Now Tomi published his “Tomi Ahonen Phone Book” and gave freebies of the data in twitter. Thanks go to Bayo Abu for asking the right question:

Now this is number from his Phone Book. It’s for all mobile handsets and it seems to continue the 40% theme. But feature phones still have plenty of non-touch models, so this could be valid number if we just knew one small detail: how many of those handsets are smartphones?
Calculation is easy; Tomi quoted the same book in his blog saying that according to the book this year 41% of phones sold are going to be smartphones. [1] So we know the starters:

  • 650 M touch screen phones should be sold this year.
  • 717.5 M smartphones should be sold this year (41% of the 1750 M total)
  • Then – based on Tomi’s stats – market shares in smartphones tell us missing data:
    Android, iOS, Bada, Windows Phone and MeeGo are touch-only. They sum up to 90.8% on Q2 (84.8% on Q1). [2]
  • Majority of Symbian devices sold this year are touch screen (I would be brave enough to say all of them, but there is distant possibility non-touch devices are still being sold).
  • Blackberry has touch devices in addition to traditional Blackberry style, don’t know the ratio. (Thanks qrant for wake-up, let’s keep speculation in minimum.)
  • Same for Windows Mobile – both types exist.

We don’t need to know exact numbers – Q2 has way over 90% touch devices. Q1 is over 90% too. Trend is increasing the percentage of touch devices so full year 2012 will be over 91% of smart phones having touch screen for sure.

Why all this long statistics?

Do you know how many percent those 650M touch devices would make out of 717.5M smartphones for full year?
90,6 percent! Tomi’s quota of 650M touch devices is already spent before we even have counted Symbian, Blackberry or Windows Mobile, far less moved to feature phones!!! This means he is using the same invalid 40% figure in his book too.
(Hint: don’t buy Tomi’s Mobile Phonebook if you need data that is valid.)

I would love to get me a copy of Tomi’s book. I bet it would fuel a long blog post in no time. 😉

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/10/introducing-the-tomiahonen-phone-book-2012-my-statistical-volume-on-the-handset-industry-totally-upd.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/smartphone-market-shares-q2-full-numbers-samsung-and-android-solidifying-their-leads.html

Advertisements