Update 18-Oct-2012:
BOY WAS I WRONG!

2.9 M Lumias,
3.4 M other smartphones (Asha apparently not counted)
Preliminary 3.9% market share (if we can use conversion rate used by Tomi Ahonen)
IS THAT COMPANY GOING TO STOP ITS DOWNFALL BEFORE IT HITS THE MARIANA TRENCH?!?
-Ex-Nokian-

(end of update)

I am in a very lucky situation that I’m not a business analyst or market expert. If I make a guess of Nokia results and end up way off, it does not ruin my reputation. If – on the other hand – some more qualified person makes prediction that is more off than mine, we probably can say he was not up to the task.

Let’s start with Lumia sales expectations from Tomi Ahonen:

That was ‘Peak Lumia’. On a Quarterly basis, the 4 million was it. There won’t be more growth now. Now we are seeing the decline.” [1]

And now that Microsoft has kindly Osborned all Lumia units, we will see a dramatic decline.” [1]

Note, that this is very likely a peak for Windows Phone, as its market share is sure to fall into Q3 as the whole Lumia line from Nokia is now Osborned” [2]

for Q3, Nokia Lumia sales will fall from 4.0 million to 3.7 million units.” [3]

Nokia other smartphone sales would fall from 6.2 million to 3.6 million units in Q3.” [3]

Oh, we get numbers! Tomi says 3.7M Lumias! Wait… I think we have some older (now osborned?) predictions:

2012 Q3*  . .   5.2 M units . . . 3% . . . . Lumia 3.1 M” [4]

So… Tomi is now INCREASING his prediction (3.1M and 2.1M) to 3.7M and 3.6M! Incredible increase by 40%!!! He has gained some confidence in Nokia!
Not being picky, but is there any older prediction (even more obsolete)?

2012 Q3 . . .   6.8 M units . . . 4% . . . . Lumia 6 M” [5]

Okay… I think we can start from this. Highest number we have received from Tomi Ahonen (for Lumia) is 6 million. Highest for other smartphones is 3.6 million. That sums up to 9.6 million. That’s the top performance he is going to give us.
Now Nokia’s latest sales (Q2) were 10.2 million (4M Lumia). That was down from 11.9 million (over 2M Lumia). Has Nokia Corporation given us any insights?

During the second quarter 2012, competitive industry dynamics are negatively affecting the Smart Devices business unit to a somewhat greater extent than previously expected. Furthermore, while visibility remains limited, Nokia expects competitive industry dynamics to continue to negatively impact Devices & Services in the third quarter 2012. Nokia now expects its non-IFRS Devices & Services operating margin in the second quarter 2012 to be below the first quarter 2012 level of negative 3.0%. This compares to the previous outlook of similar to or below the first quarter level of negative 3.0%.” [6]

Fine. And no other profit warnings since. I think I’m ready to do my forecast. Let’s gather the bits and pieces I plan to use for my forecast:

  • Recent Kantar survey gives no reason to expect unit sales decline (far less “dramatic decline” described by Tomi – he is himself constantly pumping up the Lumia expectations).
  • Nokia has not issued a new profit warning. Last one says “negatively impact” Q3 with no additional details, so it cannot be much worse than Q2 or there would’ve been new profit warning.
  • Previously mentioned Kantar survey gives us Symbian market share decrease in Europe, US and Australia. But Symbian decrease in those markets is no surprise. If there was a “strong market” for Symbian, it’s none of those as Symbian lost its share there already 2010.
  • QoQ growth of industry can be expected to be around 15%. (Rough average for past two years.)
    Now this is a huge variable. In Q1 2011 Industry growth dropped to 0 and Nokia’s unit sales collapsed. Similar thing could happen again and it would destroy my unit sales estimate, but not market share estimate.
  • Previous Nokia market share was 6,7%
  • Nokia is unlikely to gain market share as no new smartphones introduced (I am excluding full-touch Ashas from smartphones ATM).

Let’s assume market share drop to 6%. That reflects previous profit warning. Now it would increase unit sales to 10.5 million, thanks to growing industry. Then I assumed from Kantar stats that Lumia sales have increased globally (although decreased in some smaller areas). I previously said I would bet my money on 6 million Lumias for Q3 in my blog, but perhaps we should expect more modest figure. This way I can only win: if Lumia sales are higher than my prediction, Nokia gave us pleasant surprise. If Lumia sales are lower, I have fixed my early number to correct direction. Therefore I’ll split this 50-50, resulting 5.2 million Lumia and 5.3 million Symbian+MeeGo. (Naturally Nokia won’t give us this precise figures.)

Anonymous Ex-Nokian prediction of Nokia’s 2012 Q3 results:

  • 5.2 M shipped Lumia devices
  • 5.3 M shipped other smartphones (Asha line not included in 5.3 M)
  • Market share 6.0% (Market share will be available later as all major analyst houses release their estimates and Tomi Ahonen does average of those.)

Tomi Ahonen prediction of Nokia’s 2012 Q3 results (most latest prediction) [3]:

  • 3.7 M shipped Lumia devices
  • 3.6 M shipped other smartphones (Asha line not counted as smartphones)
  • Market share 4.3%

I have a bold assumption, I know. Let’s see what comes out on October 18th.
(No, I’m not a finance expert. If I say “this is where I would bet my money”, I mean betting a dollar with my friend, not investing my lifetime savings. It’s OK to rush and buy Nokia stock but don’t do that because I expected the sales to go up. ;-))

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/digging-deeper-into-nokia-q2-results-and-exactly-how-many-awesome-sales-was-att-and-china.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/smartphone-market-shares-q2-full-numbers-samsung-and-android-solidifying-their-leads.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/10/previewing-nokia-q3-results-later-this-month-kantar-confirms-disasterous-smartphone-collapse.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/revised-nokia-2012-market-share-projections-revenues-profits-asps-by-quarter.html

[5] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/are-we-ready-for-the-numbers-nokia-smartphone-market-share-projection-2012-ends-year-at-3.html

[6] http://press.nokia.com/2012/06/14/nokia-sharpens-strategy-and-provides-updates-to-its-targets-and-outlook/

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