This is a “friday fun” article. I tend to do these in a joking, perhaps even a bit taunting manner. Facts are still facts and the things proven false here are indeed false.


But wait…
Show you one?
Show you ONE?!?

Now you demand “fake numbers”, so I don’t go to fake data that is not numbers, okay?
Here goes:

  1. Nokia Money subscriber count: According to Tomi Ahonen it’s 1.2 million [2], according to any news about the issue (including the one he linked in his own blog post) it’s “more than 100 000” [3] to “about 200 000” [4].
    (For those not familiar with the term: “lakh” is 100 000.)
  2. Chinese carriers: According to Tomi Ahonen, China Mobile holds 72% of the Chinese market, China Telecom has 6% of Chinese market and therefore China Mobile is 11 times bigger. Exact quotes from his bloge are: “China Mobile the carrier who has 72% of the Chinese marketfollowed byChina Telecom, the smallest of the three Chinese carriers who has 6% of the Chinese market.followed byChina Mobile is.. ELEVEN times bigger than China Telecom!” [5]
    Correct numbers:
    China mobile holds 66% of market with 695M subscribers,
    China Telecom has 14% with 146M subscribers and therefore
    China Mobile is less than 5 times bigger than China Telecom.
    (Source: Informa Telecom & Media, May 2012, time when Tomi Ahonen made his claim.)
  3. Lumia 900 sales price in Amazon: According to Tomi Ahonen, price of Lumia 900 has decreased from 500 dollars to 1 cent. Exact quote: “Lumia 900 which originally had Amazon list price of $499.99 US dollars – is now sold.. wait for it.. for one cent !!” [6]
    In reality, Lumia 900 has never been sold with price tag of $499.99 and with AT&T subsidy, nor has it ever been sold with price tag of $0.01 without AT&T subsidy.
    So the “Lumia 900 which originally had Amazon list price of $499.99 US dollars” is NOT “now sold for one cent” (and never has been).
  4. Percentage of touch screen phones in smartphones (and of all phones for that matter) sold currently: According to Tomi Ahonen only 38% to 40% of smartphones sold currently have touch screen of some sort, rest (60% to 62%) do not have touch screen at all. Exact quote “We know that only 38% of all smartphones sold now are touch-screen smartphones (which includes hybrids), according to latest Q2 stats by Deloitte. So 62% of smartphones are non-touch screen smartphones (includes non-touch screen style QWERTY based smartphones like say a Blackberry or basic keypad smartphones).” [7]
    In reality correct figure is around 90%. Simply put: According to Tomi Ahonen Consulting data 90.8% of smartphones sold in Q2 2012 were running one of the following operating systems: Android, iOS, Bada, Windows Phone and MeeGo. [8] Of those either the Operating system requires touch screen or there are no devices without one currently in the market. Therefore: 90.8% of the smartphones sold now have touch screen.
  5. Nokia smartphone market share in Finland at early 2011: According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia held near 90% of the market in Finland at the time. Exact quote: “Symbian-based Nokia owned Finland with near 90% market share 18 months ago.” [9] or “Now comes news from Nokia’s home market where Nokia traditionally had over 80% market share – even higher in smartphones – that the Finnish handset retailers are refusing to sell Lumia.” [10]
    The “18 months ago” mentioned leads to March 2011. Proper number is around 59%, according to IDC. Even 3rd quarter of 2010 was only 76%, not 90%. (Title of this item – #5 – has link to the more thorough data on Nokia’s market share at the time.)
  6. Lumia sales until end of Q2 2012: Tomi Ahonen says Lumia line has sold 6.6M units until end of June 2012. Exact quote: “We know from previous Nokia statements that it sold 600K in Q4 of last year, 2M in Q1, and then 4M in Q2. That means only 400,000 total units sold of Lumia in the first two months of Q3 !!!! Wot ?? Lets put this into a table:
    Period . . . . Lumia sales . . . Lumia sales per month
    Q4 2011  . . . . 600,000  . . . . . 300,000
    Q1 2012 . . . 2,000,000  . . . . . 667,000
    Q2 2012 . . . 4,000,000 . . . . 1,333,000” [11]
    Now Nokia official statement is 7 million. [12] It should be noted that 600,000 for Q4 2011 and 2,000,000 for Q1 2012 Tomi Ahonen is using do not match to Nokia official statements either.
    In this case Tomi Ahonen has given us explanation why his figure is not invalid. Once again, exact quote: “The 7 million was not cumulative up to now, it was cumulative up to about end of June.” [11] So Tomi Ahonen is suggesting that Nokia quarterly results from Q2 2012 cover a period of time that is “up to about end of June“.
    (My apologies for being rude here but this case is so absurd it goes beyond my belief.)
  7. Nokia N9 unit sales: According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia N9 has sold 1.75 million units in Q4 2011 and cumulatively over 5 million units until end of Q2 2012. In detail:
    Q4/2011    1.75 million [13]
    Q1/2012 2.2 million [14]
    Q2/2012 1.2 million [8]
    In reality, e.g. Canalys and Gartner reports for sold smartphone volumes do not leave enough space outside mainstream OS’es for such sales and Official Nokia stand has been that Lumia outsold N9 very quickly after Lumia was launched.
    (Once again title of this item has link to the more thorough data.)
  8. Feature phone to smartphone transition: According to Tomi Ahonen, the combination of “Burning platform memo” and Nokia’s Windows Phone strategy caused Nokia to sell more and more feature phones compared to their smartphones. He has a graph to illustrate this:
    And exact quote: “From Q2 of last year, immediately after the Elop Effect, Nokia’s migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones reversed, to falling behind the industry average. Now as we hear Sony saying they will shortly complete their transition to a pure smartphone maker, how is Nokia’s transition? The industry average is about 34% in Q2. And Nokia’s migration level fell from the 14% it had become, to 12% now !!! Yes, adding all Lumia and Symbian and MeeGo smartphones together, Nokia’s proportion of total smartphones out of total handset sales fell even more, to 12%.” [15] (the Q2 of last year in the quote refers to year 2011 second quarter.)
    In reality, the decline started after Q3 2010 – half year before date stated by Tomi Ahonen – which is visible if we (unlike Tomi Ahonen) take quarterly data and put that into a graph:

    One can say the main message in his statement is correct, but either he has faked Q4 2010 and Q1 2011 numbers or then his dates are off by 6 months. Whichever is the case, original cause of the change cannot be the one he claims it to be.
  9. Lumia line return rates: According to Tomi Ahonen, Lumia line has worst return rates of any Nokia smartphone ever, exact quote: “the Lumia line had the worst return rates and held the worst resale value of any Nokia branded smartphones ever seen.” [16]
    I include this to Tomi’s request for “fake numbers” as this effectively requires him to show return rates (numbers) of Lumia line and reasonably many bad-performing other Nokia phones (or provide credible source where this comparison is stated). So far he has not done any such thing.
    Only source he ever has provided is blog post of Eldar Murtazin (at that time only Russian version existed). That post does not have a single mention of Lumia, mentions Nokia only in Microsoft-Nokia strategic sense and in return rates refers to Windows Phone data in a Russian survey from December 2011.
    Now Nokia started selling Lumia in Russia at beginning of December 2011, which means that a survey from December should have its data collected in November and therefore be impossible to have any Lumia return rates included.
    Here Tomi Ahonen can very easily prove me wrong – just provide a single source for his numbers.
  10. Nokia lost market share: According to Tomi Ahonen, Nokia would have had 26% market share in Q1 2012 if Nokia had not changed strategy. Exact quote:
    We get the following Nokia Quarterly performance expectation by the industry analysts in year 2010:Q4 2010 . . . 28.5%
    Q1 2011 . . . 28.0%
    Q2 2011 . . . 27.5%
    Q3 2011 . . . 27.0%
    Q4 2011 . . . 26.5%
    Q1 2012 . . . 26.0%” [17] (Date when Tomi Ahonen states this: June 14, 2012)
    The most interesting part here is his source for the “expectation by the industry analysts”: He uses Gartner forecast [18] and IDC forecast [19]. Those are dated September 10, 2010 and September 07, 2010, respectively. That means the forecasts he uses are based on Nokia’s 2nd quarter results of 2010. Both predictions are for Symbian. They start from Q2 2010 where Symbian had 40% market share and expect market share of Symbian to decrease to 30.2% and 32.9% respectively to end of 2014.
    Now at end of Q4 2010 (where Tomi Ahonen starts the market share projection) Symbian had only 32% market share – according to Tomi Ahonen himself. [20]
    There is no way to use those forecasts to predict Nokia’s market share from Q4 2010 onwards. I have made a diagram to illustrate how ridiculous that projection is. (Click on it to see it in full size):

Tomi Ahonen – I guess it is your duty to now show why these were not fake numbers?


[1] http://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/259050543190786049

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/03/how-to-surrender-war-of-ecosystems-nokias-elop-sets-ever-more-platforms-on-fire-nokia-money-killed-t.html

[3] http://onlinebanking.banking-business-review.com/news/nokia-to-exit-from-mobile-money-services-business-160312

[4] http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/info-tech/article2985226.ece?homepage=true&ref=wl_home

[5] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/paging-truth-police-no-windows-phone-and-nokia-lumia-are-not-outselling-iphone-in-china-utter-bs-sto.html

[6] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/what-happens-now-to-nokia-lumia-and-windows-phone-after-microsoft-throws-nokia-under-the-bus.html

[7] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/09/failure-version-2-nokia-lumia-relaunch-with-windows-phone-8-is-also-a-total-dud.html

[8] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/smartphone-market-shares-q2-full-numbers-samsung-and-android-solidifying-their-leads.html

[9] https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/243411857967304704

[10] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/03/the-ceo-insane-how-to-rescue-nokia.html

[11] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/09/failure-version-2-nokia-lumia-relaunch-with-windows-phone-8-is-also-a-total-dud.html

[12] http://www.kauppalehti.fi/omaraha/nokia+meidat+ymmarrettiin+vaarin/201209255507

[13] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/01/how-many-lumia-sales-as-nokia-and-microsoft-ashamed-to-reveal-number-lets-count-and-compare-to-n9-me.html

[14] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/smartphone-market-shares-after-q1-its-the-digital-jamboree-year-of-smartphone-bloodbath.html

[15] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/digging-deeper-into-nokia-q2-results-and-exactly-how-many-awesome-sales-was-att-and-china.html

[16] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/lenovo-so-the-rumors-start-some-idle-speculation-about-nokia-buyers-and-reasons.html

[17] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/the-final-reckoning-of-burning-platforms-memo-damaged-nokia-by-wiping-out-13b-in-revenues-and-destro.html

[18] http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1434613

[19] http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100907006654/en

[20] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/smartphone-bloodbath-2010-now-final-numbers-q4-and-full-year-2010-and-each-rival-awarded-their-final.html