What happened to our most accurate forecaster and Top Power Influencer in Mobile? Few captions in the past:

LOCALYTICS

When Localytics gave their estimate on Windows Phone sales, Tomi Ahonen wrote a blog post of 2900 words [1] using very gentle tone of voice to describe the Localytics. Few captions:

Localytics Are Completely Incompetent, Fail Basic Math, Do NOT Buy Their Consulting Or Reporting!” [1] (The title)
incompetent muddling with silly made-up numbers and utterly false ‘stats’. Such as those incompetent fools Localytics out of the USA who suddenly burst on the scene with fantastical stats” [1]
These fake charlatans Localytics” [1]
these hoodlums on anything other than being utterly unreliable, fake and con-artists who peddle fake stats to confuse the industry. They are either incompetent, or they are corrupt (or both).” [1]

In addition, he tweeted a link to his post to about everybody who DARED to link to Localytics:

Localytics

His actions on this may be the most childish behaviour I’ve ever seen. And I have kids. What drives someone to such an anger? (If you can tell his motive for all that trouble including the massive tweeting, tell me. I’m really out of options here.)

IDC

A bit further in the past IDC that gave their prediction of Windows Phone market share for 2016. In brief:
OS . . . . . . . 2012 . . . . . . . 2016
Android . . . . 61.0% . . . . . . 52.9%
iPhone  . . . . 20.5% . . . . . . 19.0%
Windows . . . . 5.2% . . . . . . 19.2%
Blackberry . . . 6.0% . . . . . . . 5.9%
Symbian  . . . . 4.9% . . . . . . . 0.0%
Others . . . . . . 2.4% . . . . . . . 3.0%
Total  . . . . . 100.0% . . . . . 100.0% [2]

Tomi spent over 3700 words to tell why this cannot be true and his feelings about it (again direct captions):

do not buy any IDC reports or studies, they are unprofessional).” [2]
do NOT buy any IDC reports on anything until they explain their faulty forecasts” [2]
Do not buy anything from IDC until they issue corrections and explanation in public about those blatant falsehoods and omissions and baseless expectations!” [2]
IDC is the willing prostitute that sells its reputation for the highest bidder” [2]

…you get the idea. And he was VERY clear on how such a market share (or anything even near) is impossible for Windows Phone at 2016.

GARTNER

So what happened recently? Gartner made a prediction phone sales towards 2016:

OS            2011       2013        2016
Android    213 409    700 030   1 080 082
Bada         9 526     10 816       3 752
iOS/MacOS   89 486    180 339     266 348
RIM         51 674     31 011      23 327
Symbian     85 633      9 394           0
Windows      8 757     44 224     207 092
Others       4 609      2 182           0

[3]
Let’s see market shares from that:

OS         2011    2013    2016
Android    46,1%   71,6%   68,3%
Bada        2,1%    1,1%    0,2%
iOS/MacOS  19,3%   18,4%   16,9%
RIM        11,2%    3,2%    1,5%
Symbian    18,5%    1,0%    0,0%
Windows     1,9%    4,5%   13,1%
Others      1,0%    0,2%    0,0%

Now let’s compare that to IDC:

2016 Market shares:
OS         Gartner    IDC
Android     68.3%     52.9%
Bada         0.2%    (in "others")
iOS/MacOS   16.9%     19.0%
RIM          1.5%      5.9%
Symbian      0.0%      0.0%
Windows     13.1%     19.2%
Others       0.0%      3.0%

In case of IDC:

  • Tomi ranted about IDC forgetting Bada and Tizen in their forecast.
  • Tomi compared Windows Phone to iOS when talking about IDC, questioning why IDC decreased iPhone market share so much in their forecast.

In case of Gartner:

  • Gartner leave a window of 0.2% for Bada and Tizen.
    (IDC left a generous window of 3% where they could be.)
  • Gartner puts iOS to even lower market share than IDC.

So in brief – Gartner is totally dooming Blackberry, and MeeGo (Tizen/Jolla) as a third ecosystem and repeating the “mistakes” IDC did.
Considering the recent history and Tomi’s Tizen projection, I estimated we would get:

  • A blog post of over 2000 words
  • Instructions not to buy anything from Gartner or believe their predictions
  • Definitely calling Gartner unprofessional and probably few hints on Gartner being paid from Microsoft.
  • Some foul language.

To my amazement so far all we have is this:


[4]

How come nothing else? What’s going on?
(Is he really reading my blog and has Tizen episode in fresh memory?)

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/paging-stats-police-localytics-are-completely-incompetent-fail-basic-math-do-not-buy-their-consultin.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/paging-stats-police-no-idc-not-even-close-no-windows-phone-will-not-pass-iphone-by-2016.html

[3] http://www.talouselama.fi/nokialandia/hurja+ennuste+windows+phonen+kasvulle+1091/a2152784

[4] https://twitter.com/GorrTom/status/262835964416778240

Advertisements