(beginning of this post is in Finnish. Feel free to skip it if you are not Tomi Ahonen.)

Hyvää Joulua, Tomi!
Turun kaupunki julistaa parhaillaan Joulurauhan, kinkku on tullut uunista ja perheet hiljentyvät Joulun viettoon. Näin myös minun blogini, joka täytti juuri kuusi kuukautta.
Kiitos menneestä puolivuotisesta, jonka olen saanut viettää kirjoittaen korjauksia väitteisiisi. Olen parhaani mukaan pitäytynyt henkilökohtaisuuksista ja keskittynyt siihen että asiat kinastelevat, eivät ihmiset.
Koska blogini on aiheuttanut sinulle varmasti riittävän määrän harmaita hiuksia ja närästystä, aion nyt Joulurauhan hengessä haudata sotakirveen ja muistaa sinua joululahjalla. Se on alapuolella oleva kuva ja blogipostaus.
Ehdotan sinullekin viikon taukoa jona bittiavaruudessa vallitsee rauha trollaukselta ja provokatiivisilta blogipostauksilta. Sinä Tomi tunnet kyllä minut; en lopeta tähän, ehdotan vain aselepoa. Palataan siis totuttuun toimintamalliin vasta ensi vuonna.

Rauhallista Joulua toivoen:
Anonyymi Ex-Nokialainen

MY CHRISTMAS CARD TO YOU:

gangnsmstyle
(Gangnam Style has reached 1bn views in Youtube. It’s always nice to combine holiday season, favorite action of receiving person (SMS dance) and a popular meme.)

MY CHRISTMAS PRESENT:
TOMI AHONEN IS (IN MY OPINION) MOST ACCURATE LUMIA UNIT SALES FORECASTER
(no sarcasm involved)

I have made previously a post about forecast capabilities of Tomi Ahonen. At the eve of Christmas I feel terrible for not been completely fair to him. You see, even though he has bad track record in forecasts of Nokia’s Market share, the man has one skill unmatched: Tomi Ahonen can predict Nokia Lumia unit sales with little to no error at all.

The format I used in my previous post seemed to work so I use that again here to hand you track record of Tomi Ahonen:

  • Lumia Q4 2011 sales prediction: 1M units (July 25th 2011) [1]
    Actual Lumia sales: less than 1M units (Nokia official number is ”well over 1 million” but includes part of January 2012.) Let’s call it: As accurate forecast as we can get.
  • Lumia Q1 2012 sales prediction: 4M (July 25th  2011) [1]
    Actual Lumia sales: over 2M
    (This time Tomi’s forecast is off by almost 100% but it’s one-time case)
  • Lumia Q2 2012 sales prediction: 7M (July 25th 2011) [1]
    Lumia Q2 2012 sales prediction: 4M (May 1st 2012, outdates previous) [2]
    Lumia Q2 2012 sales prediction: 4M (June 27th 2012, outdates previous) [3]
    Actual Lumia sales: 4M. (Tomi got this spot on – most accurate forecast.)
  • Lumia Q3 2012 sales prediction: 10M (July 25th 2011) [1]
    Lumia Q3 2012 sales prediction: 6M (May 1st 2012, outdates previous) [2]
    Lumia Q3 2012 sales prediction: 3,1M (June 27th 2012, outdates previous) [3]
    Lumia Q3 2012 sales prediction: 3,7M (October 2nd 2012, outdates previous) [4]
    Actual Lumia sales: 3,9M. (Missed by less than 6% – very accurate forecast.)

This is excellent!
Tomi, you have done a forecast, later found it inaccurate, called off the previous one and done a new forecast. Even better, each time you get closer to the actual number.
This is the way forecasts are made. I have no bad word to say about this work.
Tomi Ahonen – I call you the most accurate forecaster of unit sales of Nokia Lumia line.
And wait – this calls for:

Yes, Tomi: you have earned it.
Thank you for your good work on Lumia sales predictions and working like a grown-up analyst!

As I said Tomi, my blog will be quiet until end of year. But this Christmas preset extends beyond that: I’m going to totally drop the speculations on Lumia sales for Q4 2012 and for the remaining time towards Nokia’s yearly results I’m just relying on your forecasts.
Let there be no mistake here: I’m going to be refering to two most latest forecasts you have provided. They seem to be from Twitter, but you said it yourself that numbers are from your blog:

Lumia_Q4[5]

lumia_revised_12_2012

[6]

And since these (like your Q3 2012 figures) are in 0.1M accuracy and have OS spread too, I believe these are the best available so far. (Sure, you left out MeeGo but I think we can both agree it’s going to sell so little that won’t matter much.)
Just that I can refer to this later if someone asks, I’ll write it in previous formatting:

  • Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 12,4M (July 25th, 2011) [1]
    Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 7M (May 1st, 2012, outdates previous) [2]
    Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 5M (June 27th, 2012, outdates previous) [3]
    Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 4M (December 7th, 2012, outdates previous) [5]
    Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 2.5M (December 24th, 2012, outdates previous) [6]

For third time: Merry Christmas Tomi Ahonen and happy new year!
Let’s get back to the cat-and-mouse game in January. I sincerely hope someone managed to arrange a Nokia N950 to you as a Christmas present. That would be awesome.

Now for those with no Finnish skills, here’s the caption from beginning in English:

Merry Christmas Tomi!
The city of Turku is currently declaring peace for Christmas time, ham has been taken out from oven and families take a break for Christmas. So does my blog, which just became 6 months old.
Thank you for that half-a-year period that I have spent writing corrections to your claims. I have done my best to keep away from personal insults and focused on facts fighting, not people.
I can imagine my blog has caused you some grey hair and ulcer, I plan to bury the hatchet in the spirit of Christmas and remember you with a Christmas gift, That would be picture and blog post below.
I recommend a week of break from trolling and provocative postings to you too. You know me Tomi; I won’t quit here, merely propose a truce for Christmas. We can get back to business as usual on next year.

Wishing a peaceful Christmas to you:
Anonymous Ex-Nokian

Yes, I disabled commenting from this one. I want Tomi to have his Christmas present without comments to mess it up. You can comment to my previous post if you have something to say.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/07/first-look-into-microsoft-nokia-smartphones-in-2012-and-2013-expect-climb-back-to-barely-20m-in-unit.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/are-we-ready-for-the-numbers-nokia-smartphone-market-share-projection-2012-ends-year-at-3.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/revised-nokia-2012-market-share-projections-revenues-profits-asps-by-quarter.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/10/previewing-nokia-q3-results-later-this-month-kantar-confirms-disasterous-smartphone-collapse.html

[5]

http://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/277036907857321984

[6]

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/283107709514051584

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