Before I start new year of corrections to Tomi’s mistakes, let’s take a look at the year ahead (through the eyes of Nokia-interested person).

  • I think 2010 could be called “year of Android”. Android was the news of that year and eventually (with small help from January 2011) Android bypassed Symbian as most used smartphone OS.
  • Year 2011 would be “year of Symbian”. Due to new Nokia strategy Symbian suffered huge loss of interest by resales, SW developers and consumers. At the same time it became more passionately defended by its fans than ever before. Symbian indeed made a comeback – to headlines.
  • Perhaps 2012 should be called “year of Windows Phone”. Not because it would have gained huge market share, but because it was the topic of the discussions for that year.

Year 2013 will be year of newcomer OS’es.

Once again, not because they would suddenly start to rule the world, but because the topics have been (and continue to be) related: Tizen, Jolla (Mer), BB10, FirefoxOS, Ubuntu,… The enthusiasm is visible in media (and social media). This year I expect that these OS’es (and any other newcomers) will be discussion topics far more often than iOS, Windows Phone, Symbian or Android.
But what to expect from them if you are interested in Nokia? There is a connection towards all this:

Blackberry 10 OS

This is the thing to follow 2013.

  • Nokia was losing market share (as RIM has).
  • Nokia was once big player but was overrun by Android (like RIM was).
    (RIM was largest rival of Nokia until Apple bypassed it at Q3 2010. Think about it.)
  • Nokia was supposed to do their own OS (like RIM has now done).
  • Nokia was not supposed to join any “third party OS” camps (like RIM has not done).

By all the comparison RIM has the same situation that Nokia had. Naturally, RIM gets there 2 years later and is therefore in even worse state and here’s the key: If RIM can get back to game with BB10 OS, then Nokia by all judgement should have been able to do that 2 years ago with MeeGo. (Assuming the unfortunate problems in Intel co-operation had been fixed.) Which leads to:

Tizen

Tizen is not that same MeeGo Nokia abandoned. It is LiMo that got renamed when Intel joined in (with whatever it got out from MeeGo work). The reason to follow Tizen is Samsung.

  • Samsung at current holds most market share (like Nokia did in 2010)
  • Samsung has a strong platform (Android) but is looking for options (like Nokia w/Symbian, going to MeeGo)
  • Samsung needs to convert existing Bada ecosystem to Tizen (like Nokia needed to convert Symbian to MeeGo via Qt)

Trick here is that Symbian was in a slow path towards oblivion and Nokia needed MeeGo desperately, whereas Samsung has all the good signs from Android and is not in a desperate state so far. In addition, it seems Intel is about to get its chipsets ready by 2013 (a bit late for Nokia’s original Q4 2010 schedule, eh?)
If Samsung can grow Tizen into a meaningful OS, then we have all the reason to believe Nokia could have grown MeeGo to a meaningful OS too. Personal note: I still do not believe Tizen will be second largest mobile OS by 2015. But mobile space is moving so fast anything (including highly unlikely theory Windows Phone bypassing iOS) is still possible.

Jolla / Sailfish OS / Mer

Jolla is the closest thing to Nokia’s MeeGo as it is developed by people from Nokia and inherits as much as possible from Nokia’s MeeGo. In addition, Jolla is free from Intel infection. I made a separate post about this subject where I explain my feelings why Jolla won’t be a big hit either, but for sake of this article, let’s keep in mind it is a new OS from a new (small) player. Jolla has all the obstacles to gain decent sales. They should not be able to make launches in the scale of Nokia or Samsung and therefore if Jolla takes better start than Nokia’s Lumia line, Nokia definitely should have gone with MeeGo.

Ubuntu and others

This came as nice news yesterday. It seems that there will be Ubuntu variant for mobile devices and it works with swipe gestures like N9 UI. First products to be expected 2014, but will definitely be a topic this year. Most likely it will jump into Qt bandwagon, making it all more appealing to SW developers (see previous chapter. 😉 )And that’s not all. It seems lots of different OS’es and devices are trying to squeeze in. Very interesting year coming in indeed.

That’s few metrics to follow in order to see how bad Nokia decisions were in the past. (I think there was a Form 20-F filed by Nokia mentioned recently? Next post will be about that unless something new comes up.)

EDIT:

One more OS to look at (but for all the different reasons): iOS.
According to Tomi Ahonen Nokia “had lost its lead and was doing me too devices” in end of 2010. At that point Nokia had lost 26% of its market share in six months (15% decrease each quarter).
Now iPhone 5 has gotten quite cold reception so let’s see what Apples market share looks like:

Apple Market share 2012 by calendar quarter (source: communities-dominate.blogs.com):

Apple's market share and changes
Quarter  marketsh.  QoQ(%)  YoY (%)
2011 Q1    18%      +13%
2011 Q2    19%       +6%
2011 Q3    15%      -21%
2011 Q4    23.9%    +59%
2012 Q1    24.2%     +1%    +34%
2012 Q2    17.0%    -30%    -11%
2012 Q3    15.7%     -8%     +5%
2012 Q4    22.2%    +41%     -7%
Full year market shares:
2011  19.1%
2012  19.8%

Apple is the fluctuator in market shares. Their market share goes up and down as models are rolled out annually, so it is hard to tell how their market share is developing by looking at quarterly results. But during last three quarters apple has had pretty stable (more down than up) market share. I would say Apple has stopped growing their market share, at least so it seems. What will be interesting to see during 2013 is if Apple will stabilize to the level of ~20% of market share (incredible achievement in fast growing market and only high-end product(s) available). Double more interesting metric to follow through 2013 as the platform war for 3rd place continues. So far it seems that Apple is doing just fine in their profit making plan.

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