My very good friend suggested me that I should make a date with Tomi Ahonen somewhere in the future where our current disagreements probably have no meaning anymore.
Excellent idea.
Here’s the result:

twitter_agreed

[1]

Okay, lots of my babbling follows. Let’s then look at one additional chat there:

twitter_agreed_2

[2]

I’m glad Tomi remembers that, here’s his previous (not that I would mind even if he had changed it at this point):

tizen

Tomi’s forecast:Android, Tizen, iOS, Blackberry, Windows

ExNokian forecast:
Android, iOS, Windows, Tizen, Blackberry

Now my friend already pointed out that we won’t get any free beers if the reality turns out to be e.g.:
Android, Windows, Blackberry, iOS, Tizen (since neither one was alone correct on any of those). 🙂

But yes, it’s a date. And I’m totally expecting we’ll have good laughs and forget all the past debates. Probably we won’t even mention Nokia at all.

Wait, no Nokia? How come?
Well, it’s the time scale here. I picked 2016 since there have been so many interesting forecasts on 2015 and 2016 numbers and people seem to forget how long time it is. Our “skål” with Tomi Ahonen can take its place in 3 years at earliest. Let’s see something that would have happened in 3 years in the past, shall we?

iPhone

iPhone was released on June 29, 2007. At end of 3rd quarter of 2010 (3 years and 3 months later) Apple was second largest smartphone manufacturer. [3] I’ll be a bit provocative and say that “Apple did it with one single phone model”. (Naturally that counts several iPhone versions on the way.)
New manufacturer, from 0 sales to second place in global sales (took 3 years and one quarter).

Android

The first Android-powered phone was sold in October 2008. Android passed Symbian as most sold Smartphone OS roughly January 2011 (before Nokia switched to Windows Phone). I’ll illustrate this with a picture, source of numbers is Tomi Ahonen Consulting:

android_bypasses_symbian

Now that’s arguable that Q1 2011 market share could have been ruined by Elop Effect. I say Symbian was going to crash far below Android in Q1 2011, no matter what. I’ll let Tomi wrap it up:

1  Symbian . . . . . . 31.4M . . . 32%
2  Android . . . . . .  30.1M . . . 30%

Symbian is holding onto its lead but Android is now running neck-to-neck with it, closing so fast. Remember in Q3 the difference was 36% to 25% (11 market share points). If this trend continues, Android is likely to pass Symbian in Q1. My gut says mostly because of China sales in Chinese New Year, that Symbian could hold but also – with the nose-dive that Nokia has been in, it may well crash far below Android in the quarter haha.” [4]
-Tomi Ahonen, February 09, 2011

New OS, from 0 existing devices to most sold OS globally (took 2 years and one quarter).

Nokia

No matter how we feel about the reasons behind it, fact is that Nokia has made a huge drop. Nokia Market share since Q2 2010 (once again from Tomi Ahonen Consulting):

Nokia Market share Q2 2010 - Q3 2012
Q2 2010 - 39%
Q3 2010 - 33%
Q4 2010 - 28.5%
Q1 2011 - 24% (incl. switch to Windows Phone)
Q2 2011 - 16%
Q3 2011 - 14%
Q4 2011 - 13%
Q1 2012 - 8%
Q2 2012 - 6.7%
Q3 2012 - 3.7%

So Nokia:
Dominated market, as a clear #1, lost over 90% of its market share (or over 35 actual points of marketshare) in two years and one quarter.

All this in place, mark my words:

There is plenty of time for the whole market to turn upside down before we grab those pints with Tomi Ahonen.

(I’m still looking towards it, though.)

REFERENCES:

[1] https://twitter.com/ExNokian/status/288365897419223040

[2] https://twitter.com/ExNokian/status/288980217714855936

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/11/bloodbath-q3-final-numbers-the-smartphone-race-gets-ever-more-tight.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/smartphone-bloodbath-2010-now-final-numbers-q4-and-full-year-2010-and-each-rival-awarded-their-final.html

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