As I said before closing down my blog, Tomi Ahonen is repeating himself so much that this blog is valid counterargument for next year or so anyway. History proves me right. His recent blog post alone is full of same old BS. And this time it makes no sense either. As I said yesterday, the alleged $25M incentive to wreck the company is alone enough reason to have Elop and board beheaded, there is no need to spread lies about the Nokia’s state in 2010 and state of MeeGo or create unrealistic stories about the alternate future where Nokia was going to “escape the competition”.
<EDIT>
As the conspiracy theory is not backed up by facts it seems Tomi indeed DOES need to spread more lies to justify his crusade. ūüėČ
Nevertheless, his post is done on assumption that conspiracy theory is valid so my original text works still:
</EDIT>
Judging from his approach Tomi would make a terrible lawyer:

Judge:Does the prosecution have any evidence against the defendant?
Tomi the Lawyer:We have rock solid proof that he is guilty as charged your honor, but before we show them I would like to spread some lies and half-truths to prove that the victim was not just ordinary man but in fact he was olympic-level marathon runner ready to make new world record the very next week from the day he was killed.

Honest. His latest post makes about as much sense as that example. So what old stuff does Tomi bring up? In one single blog post [1] he states that:

  • Nokia held better than 70% market share in the world’s largest handset market – China
    Not true, they did not “hold” it, they LOST it in 2010. For more: (visit link)
  • Nokia grew more smartphone sales in 2010 than Apple did its iPhones.
    Twisting the numbers, 1st quarter of 2010 causes that illusion, but I disagree as I feel three next quarters should be treated as more important. For more: (visit link)
  • In Q4 of 2010, the last quarter before Elop started to wreck Nokia’s smartphone unit, Nokia sold 28.6 million smartphones (Nokia official number, updated by Nokia). That was up 37.5% from Q4 of 2009.
    This continues the odd case that Tomi focuses on market share whenever it is not latter half of 2010. Now apparently also he chooses YoY compare instead of QoQ. That is of course because¬†in scope of¬†Tomi’s agenda last half of 2010 is better not mentioned. For more: (visit link)
  • Every single analyst of the mobile handset industry, that issued a forecast for the industry during 2010, had confidently predicted that Nokia would remain the world’s largest smartphone maker easily into 2012 and 2013. TOTAL CONSENSUS.
    Not true either. None of them stated anything like that after Android bypassed Symbian (and Nokia) in 2010. For more: (visit link)
  • The point is, that yes, its true that Symbian’s market share was not growing – of course – it was declining simply because the past Symbian partners were now departing to join Android.” -Tomi Ahonen
    Still not true. This graph is from numbers that Tomi has published in his blog.
    android_symbian_halt
    See how Nokia and Symbian go down hand-in-hand? Year 2010 demise of Symbian had nothing to do with other manufacturers departing it. Nokia had almost identical share of Symbian throughout the year and the drop of market share is a multiplication of the entire market share those competitiors held. For more: (visit link)
  • Elop made ridiculous claims in his Burning Platforms memo. He said for example that Nokia had ‘fallen behind’ Apple.
    Funny that in February 2011 Рall the way up to 11th of February and announcement of Microsoft strategy РTomi agreed with the memo. In his words:
    Tomi fully agrees with the ‚Äėsentiment‚Äô of that memo. Not partly agrees, fully agrees! Ok?
    For more: (visit link)
  • China Mobile was so pissed off by Nokia’s switch to Windows, that the first Lumia smartphone, the Lumia 800, China Mobile insisted Nokia provide a same-spec smartphone but running Symbian instead, sold in China as the 801T. Yes, running Symbian, and having a ton of the goodies that China Mobile had been expecting, such as NFC that the early Lumia could not support.
    Utter crap and a technical impossibility. For more: (visit link)
  • Again, this is what Elop told Nokia shareholders meeting in April 2012, that yes, he and Ballmer had been sitting in those carrier meetings, and he reported that not one carrier had taken the new deal offered by Elop and Ballmer.
    This is continuing the “Elop admitted Skype boycott” theory, except now we have text that was never even brought up in the entire question-answer pair. And no, Elop¬†did not “admit” anything like that. Luckily there is full video coverage of the claimed “admit”.¬† For more: (visit link)
  • I calculated here on this blog, that for the first few months when they were sold side-by-side, the sole sold MeeGo handset, the N9, outsold the cheaper set of Lumia smartphones.
    Actually he did not calculate it, but nevertheless N9 did not outsell Lumia and source of those numbers is ridiculous. For more: (visit link)
  • And what of the German newsmagazine Der Stern? This is not a tech magazine, its a weekly newsmagazine, like Time is in the USA. Der Stern reviewed the N9 and concluded that it recommended German readers should fly to another country like Austria or Switzerland – to go get their N9, it is that good.
    Der Stern does technology reviews, the review is available in their website, located in section “Digital -> Phones”. It’s definitely not alone there, their (positive) Lumia 800 review is also there along several other Nokia reviews. And they did not recommend people to fly to other country either. For more: (visit link)
  • Nokia Money is another of the same story. Nokia launched its mobile payments solution in several countries such as India where it had already reached double digits in market share

    So what does the smart Nokia CEO do? He terminated the Nokia Money project.
    Nokia Money did not have such market share and even the source Tomi himself originally linked proves it did not. For more: (visit link)
  • The Lumia series seems to be designed almost to annoy loyal Nokia owners – what with the 101 faults and all.
    Yes, there are shortcomings compared to Symbian.
    On the other hand, this¬†“101 list” had about 40 items that were flat out not true when it came out and over 30 are still in the list. And it has¬†“reasons not to buy” like Wi-Fi hotspot not being done by Microsoft but by Nokia. (Seriously, how is that “reason not to buy”?) For more: (visit link)
  • I wrote deep, analytical, passionate reviews of where the early Lumia is faulted, and what Nokia should to to fix the problems.
    Oh yes he did. But it is pretty hard for Nokia to follow Tomi’s guidance to add FM radio to lumias that already had it. Or QR code reader which is integrated to search functionality behind the HW search key or…
    Read here for his full text. (visit link)
    It is quite funny and shows that he – like he has said himself – has never tried a Windows Phone.
  • Elop destroyed all three pillars of his strategy
    Except that Tomi has different pillars than Nokia had. For more: (visit link)
  • Elop promised a 1-to-1 revenue transition in his strategy.
    No he did not. Ever. For more: (visit link)
  • Before Elop started, Nokia smartphone unit was the world’s largest, more than 2x bigger than its nearest rival
    Yes indeed. Nearest rival was Blackberry (at that time RIM). I wonder where they are now? Let’s¬†use numbers Tomi publishes every quarter:
    nokia_rim_unit_sales_absolute
    If you wonder why Tomi does not mention RIM more often, you may want to read this awesome article by Asymco: (visit link)

And saved this as a last one:

  • The facts are undeniable.
    catbert

Now this all was just one blog post and I had already covered all those before. Why does he keep on doing this? Needless to say that he has visited same topics during last half-a-year too, I’m merely saving you from repetition that I do not pick those again. Instead I hand you those claims he has done in last few months that I did not mention yet:

  • ELOP EFFECT DESTROYED NOKIA
    (That’s a title in middle of his blog, sums it well up). Of course it did not “destroy Nokia”, it accelerated the downfall already in motion and nullified any chance of resurgence. For more: (visit link)
  • The new Windows Phone 8. Again, Nokia under Elop, managed to Osborne all its current Windows 7.x devices
    About as much as N8 Osborned older Symbian devices. Naturally people wait for the new phones, even Apple sees this happen prior to launch of new iPhone.
    Want additional proof? Guess what was most sold handset in Finland after Windows Phone 8 and¬†Lumia launch had “Osborned” sales? Lumia 800 – the Osborned device. For more: (visit link)
  • Elop did the silly decision to reduce Nokia’s phone portfolio
    Except Tomi himself has said that the decision was done in 2009. Also the amount of handsets launched 2011 is equal to amount of handsets launched 2010.
  • Bill Gates said Microsoft’s smartphone strategy had been so badly ruined by Ballmer, that it is now not even recoverable.
    This is most far stretched version so far. He did not say that or any variation of it. For more: (visit link)
  • Elop did decision on suddeinly terminating Meltemi . It was only weeks from the launch of the first low-cost smartphones
    Weeks? Sure. Platform that had never been publicly said to be coming, that had no public developer SDK, no developer ecosystem and no apps. Definitely weeks from launch. People would have queued to get themselves what would effectively be overpriced feature phone.

Okay. I know I did a long post and did nothing else than repeated the old stuff. Sorry for that and I hope you forgive me tomorrow when I’ll hand you new and previously uncovered claims from Tomi (unsurprisingly those are not true either).

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/09/now-we-know-why-nokias-elop-had-a-25m-personal-bonus-clause-from-the-nokia-board-if-he-was-able-to-s.html

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