This is a “friday fun” article. I tend to do these in a joking, perhaps even a bit taunting manner. Facts are still facts and data here is valid if said to be so.
To the topic:
I couldn’t really resist on picking up that line from Tomi’s blog to be the title of this post. You see this comment from Tomi’s blog caught my attention long time ago:
“If you read this blog, you are reading Tomi’s overly long, rambling thoughts on all things mobile. At least he has time to edit. On Twitter, with it’s instant appeal Tomi exposes his narcissistic tendencies. He cant’s censor other people’s tweets (comments), like he is able to do here. So he just lashes out… repeatedly at anyone who questions him.
Believe me, I get no pleasure in watching a man unravel in such a way, but I do find it morbidly fascinating.
Posted by: Piot | May 10, 2012 at 10:27 PM ” 
That may first sound like harsh text but I said in the past that Tomi’s behaviour is more childlish than that of my kids. One good example of previously mentioned is the Localytics analysis which he… shared? To the world.
It all started from Localytics reporting Windows Phone growth. That launched Tomi into full anger mode. Still today I have no clue why – it’s not as if that was somehow taken away from him. However, he wrote a post using quite colorful language and then he saw it fit to reply to EVERYONE who had mentioned Localytics:
Links to actual tweets can be found as references 2-18 (yes, there are that many).
And this is just tip of iceberg. Some may still remember Tomi’s tweet-spree of over 100 tweets, ALL of them pointed to @JohnAtNokia. It was all about Tomi furiously stating Elop had admitted Skype boycott. Tomi’s behavior really does not get to see any justification there. It is something in his true nature that every now and then he has to vent through Twitter with all his emotional frustration and the entire world gets to watch:
But it’s not just the attitude. Tomi’s constantly changing mind becomes more visible in the fast-paced world of Twitter and e.g. this case proves that Tomi is true to his word and lives as he tweets:
What do you know? It took 12 days to change his mind what comes to “do not talk share prices”. And just to make certain that the “refuse any share price discussion on my blog” part is held:
The Nokia share price was $9.36 on the day before this mad Microsoftian misadventure was announced. Nokia’s share price is now $4.06.
And now that we are speaking of “living as he tweets”…
Yes, Tomi has never written anything that damages his creds, right? 😀
As said in the beginning, Tomi just lashes out. Without really thinking, I’d add:
(That resulted to some unexpected fun.)
But yes, Twitter is a fast-paced world. Tomi calls himself “the most accurate forecaster in Mobile”
It is good to see him spreading his forecasts in Twitter where he does not spend a minute to think how likely those are to come true. Like day when Nokia will be sold. Tomi gave a press interview about this in 14th of June 2012, saying that it will be “weeks, maximum of two months” before Nokia will be chopped to pieces and sold.
Then to Twitter:
Yes, yes, definitely. We have not waited for two months yet so it could still happen if he says it often enough.
And even if we count selling D&S unit as “Nokia being sold” or “chopped into pieces”, this still is over a year before the sales actually took place and his timely forecast is “within weeks”.
Tomi is not only accurate but gets more accurate as time goes on:
Should we say he was right? It’s mere 7 months before sales of D&S unit so that probably is “any day now”? 😀
But Tomi did forecast that Nokia will be sold so he HAS TO BE more farsighted than others, right?
Wrong. That price goes to…
Being more far-sighted than Tomi as he saw his coming OVER TWO YEARS before it actually took place and knew that it will indeed be sales of Mobile unit only!
(Mr. Murtazin has also been persistent on this topic, BTW)
So as accurate as Tomi has been, this was not his day. Let’s check some other hits, shall we? Tomi certainly was able to forecast Windows Phone market share properly (for the records, Windows Phone market share has passed 4% already):
But what Tomi loses in precision, he definitely gains in persistence:
And also he gains some in confidence (feel free to compare the Windows Phone over 4% market share of today to these numbers)
And that is just market share, in other WP folly we have tons of stuff:
Yes, that is June 2011 – we have quite a dead man walking here as they have been increasing their market share ever since, passing BlackBerry to gain the 3rd ecosystem title!
Hmmm… BlackBerry? Did I say BlackBerry? I’m sure Tomi shows us insights on BlackBerry vs. Windows Phone? Latest numbers are not out yet but is seems Q3 shipments will be Windows Phone outselling BB avout 2-to-1. I’m sure Tomi must have seen this one coming?
And then Windows Phone passed Blackberry to gain 3rd place the very next quarter. Utter complete rubbish indeed, Tomi!
As said, what is lost in accuracy is definitely gained in persistence. So give Tomi two more months to get used to the idea of Windows Phone success ad we get Tomi doing Twitter-bets:
(I think that bet got solved already when BB started planning to sell their operations)
But if we go REALLY far in the past we get to see how Tomi indeed “knows Nokia very deeply” as he has said:
I end my post on this to sum it up. Thanks for reading and have a nice weekend!