I wanted to make this post just because Tomi’s over-confident tweets of “who is BY FAR the most accurate forecaster in mobile“, “Windows Phone will never pass BB10 in annual market share” and “in year 2012, BB (without BB10) handily outsold Windows in all smartphone variations – by 2 to 1“.

twitter-bet

So they have a Twitter-bet, eh? Windows Phone is not supposed to pass BB in annual market share, eh? Let’s see stats for last 4 quarters (all from Tomi’s blog so he can’t say numbers are wrong – these numbers are his buddies):

Quarter   BB OS    WP
Q4 2012   6.9 M   5.8 M
Q1 2013   6.3 M   6.0 M
Q2 2013   6.8 M   9.1 M
Q3 2013   5.9 M   9.3 M
TOTALS   25.9 M  30.2 M

So we have one-year market share victory for WP. But hey, Tomi could always say that he meant calendar year, right? Let’s get back to this in early February, but keep in mind this:

Quarter   BB OS    WP
Q1 2013   6.3 M   6.0 M
Q2 2013   6.8 M   9.1 M
Q3 2013   5.9 M   9.3 M
TOTALS   19.0 M  24.4 M

To break even BlackBerry needs to sell 5.4 million phones MORE than Windows Phone, which has been projected to ship over 10 million units on 4th quarter. A sales growth of ~200% QoQ. Could happen, right?

catbert

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