I wanted to make this post just because Tomi’s over-confident tweets of “who is BY FAR the most accurate forecaster in mobile“, “Windows Phone will never pass BB10 in annual market share” and “in year 2012, BB (without BB10) handily outsold Windows in all smartphone variations – by 2 to 1“.
So they have a Twitter-bet, eh? Windows Phone is not supposed to pass BB in annual market share, eh? Let’s see stats for last 4 quarters (all from Tomi’s blog so he can’t say numbers are wrong – these numbers are his buddies):
Quarter BB OS WP Q4 2012 6.9 M 5.8 M Q1 2013 6.3 M 6.0 M Q2 2013 6.8 M 9.1 M Q3 2013 5.9 M 9.3 M TOTALS 25.9 M 30.2 M
So we have one-year market share victory for WP. But hey, Tomi could always say that he meant calendar year, right? Let’s get back to this in early February, but keep in mind this:
Quarter BB OS WP Q1 2013 6.3 M 6.0 M Q2 2013 6.8 M 9.1 M Q3 2013 5.9 M 9.3 M TOTALS 19.0 M 24.4 M
To break even BlackBerry needs to sell 5.4 million phones MORE than Windows Phone, which has been projected to ship over 10 million units on 4th quarter. A sales growth of ~200% QoQ. Could happen, right?