Last five days we’ve seen Tomi’s forecasts for full years 2010-2014. He insists he is the most accurate forecaster in mobile and I quote:

For new readers – I was the most accurate forecaster for how badly Nokia’s market share would fall after the Elop Effect last year February (the Burning Platforms memo which caused a Ratner Effect on Nokia sales, and the related Microsoft announcement also in February when Nokia had no phones to sell on Windows Phone, which caused an Osborne Effect. I call these two the Elop Effect, the most damaging management communication of all time). I predicted in February 2011, that as Nokia’s new CEO Stephen Elop suddenly and very radically altered Nokia’s long-standing strategy in smartphones, the smartphone sales would stall and Nokia’s market share would crash to 12% by Q4 of 2011 (down from 29% at the time when the forecast was made – this is totally unprecedented in any industry, so there is no comparison to use, no analogy that could help with the forecast). Nobody else dared suggest that Nokia would be so badly damaged, some very cheerfully hoped that Nokia’s market share would be more than twice that, some projected it as high as 28% for the end of the year. The reality was.. 12.6%.” [1]

Now I’ve been quite sceptical about this statement in the past and I think it is time to call for Tomi’s accuracy, shall we? When Tomi still acted more open-mindedly, he gave us this clue:

Note also. that Horace Dediu at Asymco blog has made his projection of how Nokia market share will fall (his was done before mine) and his numbers are almost the same for 2011 (but his forecast continues to 2012 where it gets far worse). So if you are not sure about my numbers, there is now at least one other analyst who has a very similar view.” [2]

Well thank you Tomi! You were even kind enough to hand us the link to Horace’s post [3] so let’s see it:
NokiaSmartphoneShare2011-2012Asymco
Hmmm… That’s not very clear and Horace did not give us the exact numbers. Let me add some lines to get the actual numbers:
Values fromAsymcoGraph
And now, shall we compare your forecasts at the time and how reality turned out to be?

  • We know your forecast [4].
  • We just have seen Horace’s forecast.
  • From the numbers of your own blog we know Nokia’s market share for the full time.

Here goes (most accurate forecast highlighted with green for your convenience):
HoraceVsTomi

So we get to see that two quarters out of four Horace bested Tomi and they had equal numbers for the rest. That not only makes Horace the more accurate forecaster but also drops Tomi’s possibility to take credit of the quarters where they are tied. Why is that, you say? Because Tomi said it himself:

his was done before mine

NOTE:

No, I did not take year 2012 into the comparison. This is because Tomi’s original forecast did not go that far. Tomi made his first 2012 forecast numbers at summer 2011 and I’m sure by then Horace had more up to date numbers too. This post was merely about Tomi’s repeated claim that his forecast of 12% was the most accurate forecast and “nobody else dared suggest that Nokia would be so badly damaged”…

…which never was true.

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/revised-nokia-2012-market-share-projections-revenues-profits-asps-by-quarter.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/noki-soft-windfall-who-wins-most-when-micro-kia-hand-away-lucrative-smartphone-empire-bigger-than-bl.html

[3] http://www.asymco.com/2011/02/14/who-will-buy-the-next-150-million-symbian-smartphones/

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/when-things-get-even-worse-than-you-thought-1st-preview-of-potential-for-nokia-microsoft-partnership.html

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