Oh gosh, I had completely forgotten that I promised to make an update once we have Tomi’s full year 2013 statistics out. (This is about his year 2013 forecast.)

I should mention here that I’m now rating Tomi with the same metric he uses. In addition to measuring manufacturers and ecosystems only by unit sales (and market share) it also means that I’m going to rate Tomi’s accuracy according to the metric he used when he told he is the most accurate forecaster. [1] Here’s how it works:

Let’s say I forecasted Nokia to have 25% market share but in reality it has 2.5%. In Tomi math I’m not off by 90% instead I’m off by 900% as real number needs to be tenfold to match my forecast! THIS is how you evaluate forecast accuracy Tomi Ahonen-style.

Tomi gave us 14 numbers in his forecasts [2], all are either smartphone maker or OS market shares, either for Q4 or for full year. (Actually Apple is there twice, first as Apple and then as iOS. Blackberry is also twice but other is full year and other is Q4.) When we check those forecasts with his year 2013 numbers [3] he gets 6 hits and 8 misses for year 2013. They are:

HIT:

What is Samsung’s overall market share range for this year? I think they’re pretty safely in roughly the 30% range, say between 25% and 35% of all smartphones sold this year and obviously over 95% of those will be on Android for the full year.

For the full year market share Samsung got 31.5% like Tomi promised.

2 x HIT:

So, if Apple continues with only one iPhone model, they will struggle to hold to the 20% level for the full year 2013, give them a range of 15% – 20% but if they release a parallel lower cost model, then by Q4 they could have combined iPhone sales in the 25% to 30% range.

Apple’s iOS in smartphones will be identical to the Apple iPhone share in the above. I don’t have more to add, it will be in the 15% to 30% range depending on whether we see 1 or 2 new iPhone models this year.

Like I said in the last post, we have a school book example of Tomi’s “most accurate forecasts”. He forecasts a spread of whopping 15 points of percentage projecting a drop of 25% or then perhaps increase of 50%.
No wonder he never misses a forecast.
Wait, he does and we will get to that soon.
Anyway, Apple had 16% full year market share and 18% market share for Q4, both between 15% and 30% like he promised.

MISS:

They [Huawei] should end the year somewhere in the 15% market share level, say 12% – 17% as their target range with higher numbers towards Q4 than the full year numbers. And let me suggest that if Apple doesn’t give us a Nano iPhone this year, Huawei might outsell the iPhone in smartphones by Q3 (if the iPhone 5X launches for Christmas) or by Q4 (if the new iPhone 5X launches for the summer). For the full year, Apple is still likely to hold to its 2nd place ranking but for perhaps one quarter this year, Huawei may jump Apple and then it will be a big run for 2nd place into year 2014.

Huawei had full year market share of 5.3% where Q4 share was 6.1%. Tomi’s forecast is off by 100% to 200%.

HIT (well, two thirds at least):

And honestly, I can’t find currently major differences in the pack of Chinese makers that follow. ZTE is the biggest of the rest, and have the widest available country and carrier footprint. They had about 5% market share. Lenovo only entered the global Top 10 last year (displacing Motorola) and Coolpad is just outside the Top 10 currently at 11th, waiting to displace Nokia which is happening probably now in Q1 of 2013. Lenovo started its global expansion last summer heading to Russia, India etc and Coolpad is about to follow on those footsteps. Each of these three will grow in size this year, grabbing market share and climbing up the Top 10 chart.

So for the year, ZTE should grow into the about 7%-8% range, Lenovo get into the 5% range and Coolpad enter and stake a solid Top 10 position in the 3%-4% market share range for the year.

OH CRAP! Coolpad forgot to drop Nokia out of Top 10!!! 😀
However, full year numbers put them to positions 5, 6 and 8 (Lenovo, ZTE, Coolpad).
Actual 2013 market shares were Lenovo 4.7%, ZTE 4.0% and Coolpad 3.6%, not bad for three brands whose main market still is China. Coolpad and Lenovo actually made it according to Tomi’s forecast.

MISS:

I think Blackberry will end the year roughly where it was by Q4, but has a modest upside. Lets say their range is 4% to 6%.

Tomi’s Q4 and full year report says that BlackBerry ended the year at 1.5%. Tomi is off by up to 300%!

MISS:

But like Lenovo, lets deal with Sony as only its own sales, excluding any corporate purchases, so Sony alone should grow and end the year with something like 6% to 8% market share. This year I don’t see Sony returning to the number 3 slot but number 4 is very well in the cards for the Japanese electronics giant.

Sony was positioned 7th at 3.9% market share. Tomi is off by 50% to 100%.

MISS:

I say Nokia’s high end ceiling for this year is that 3%. I don’t see it happening, I think Nokia will sell 2% of the smartphones of this year. But yes, 3% is the upside ceiling. And on the downside? When past collapses in the handset space happened, at these levels the companies went bankrupt and were sold (like Motorola, Palm, Siemens, etc). Nokia’s bottom end, lets say 1%. So your target for Nokia for 2013 is between 1% and 3%

Nokia actually went outside Tomi’s prediction and had 3.1% full year market share, just to annoy Tomi who “didn’t see it happening”. Tomi is off by 3% to 210%.

HIT:

I’ll say HTC is in the 2% – 4% range for the year and might hold barey onto a Top 10 ranking. But yes, HTC might very well be suddenly sold this year.

HTC was barely at top 10 (tenth actually) with 2.7% market share for 2013 – well within Tomi’s promise.

HIT:

expect LG to end the year in something like 4% to 6% in size.

LG ended year at 4.6% – well within Tomi’s promise.

OPERATING SYSTEMS

MISS:

Android powered two thirds of all smartphones sold by year-end and that would be roughly the scale they will achieve this year too, lets say between 60% and 70%. The Blackberry and Windows Phone base is too small to make big impacts to Android under any scenarios, the only other platform which will matter to Android is Apple’s iOS. If Apple does split its iPhone range and introduce a lower-cost iPhone, expect the lower end of that scale for Android

Full year 2013 market share was 78%. With iPhone 5C that Tomi says is the product line split he called for (and I say is not). Tomi is off by 11% to 30%.

MISS:

The Blackberry OS was the third bestselling OS last year and will also be so this year. The story is the same as in the above, so the target is somewhere in the 4% to 6% range.

BlackBerry was not third bestselling OS in 2013. And it had 2% for full year. So Tomi (once again) is off by 100% to 200%.

MISS:

Microsoft has recently cancelled some of its costly big programs like the Zune music player and the Kin youth phone. I think the Windows Phone project is now in jeopardy.
If Windows Phone is not ended, I can also see, it would be in Microsoft’s DNA, that Microsoft keeps pumping Billions into the eternity-project that is Windows smartphones, to ever diminshing returns. They did hit a peak at 3% market share in two quarters in the past year (but lifetime Windows smartphone peak was 12% five years ago, so its been misery ever since), I don’t see them having such luck this year, but will be closer to 2% if Nokia stays onboard for the full year and Elop remains in charge of Nokia. To be safe, lets say their range is from 1% to 3% as their market share target for the year, and don’t be surprised if Microsoft throw in the towel after Tizen and Firefox launch and carriers offer strong support of those platforms…

Year 2013 Windows phone “hit the peak” of 3.9% market share in Q2, being almost twice what Tomi forecasted it to be if Nokia stayed on board.
<EDIT>
This is from Tomi’s recent post:
The latest industry analysts report Windows Phone at about 3.5% market share (give or take one tenth of one percentage point, depending on which analyst numbers you look at).” [4]
So The Windows Phone 3% market share that Tomi reports in his numbers [3] is a deliberate round-down to keep his forecast more fitting. I originally suspected this (see my original text below, dashed over).
</EDIT>
Full year market share for Windows Phone Tomi reports at 3%. Quarterly market shares were over 3% every quarter except fourth quarter where it was 2.9%. It is rather obvious he rounds the Windows Phone market share down, which means that Tomi missed this forecast, especially if we start from the fact that Nokia (almost 100% Windows Phone) is at 3.1% market share. Judging from the quarterly numbers we can say Windows Phone missed being rounded up to 4% by an inch.

Also:
Tomi said we shouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft threw in the towel. Not only they did not do that (and their acquisition of Nokia D&S unit indicates quite the opposite) but for the 2.9% market share at Q4 we should remember in comparison that Samsung could not increase unit sales in fourth quarter – at all. [3]

MISS:

I’d say Firefox has about 1% market share by Q4 and for the full year won’t register 1% yet. But they will grow and become stronger into 2014.

In Q4 2013 FFOS was somewhere with “other” OSes that all sum up to 0.2%. Here Tomi is off by at least 400% but in reality he has to be more off to fit other OSes in too. Sounds like being off by a mile? Best was saved at last one:

MISS:

I think Tizen is pretty safe to be in the 2% range of global sales by year-end, ie at Q4 of 2013, but not much more, and for the full year, they will maybe find their share rounded off to 1% if they are lucky. But it will be far stronger sales growing into 2014 from that strong start.

In addition to Sprint and Telefónica leaving the Tizen Association year 2013, NTT DoCoMo called off launch of Tizen device year 2014 and Orange told they don’t have a Tizen device in their current smartphone roadmap. Now comes the fun part: using Tomi’s rating method his forecast is off by ∞% for 2013 and probably for year 2014 too. 😉

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/01/final-score-on-most-important-forecast-of-2011-once-again-tomi-ahonen-most-accurate-forecaster-in-mo.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/03/preview-of-the-smartphone-wars-bloodbath-year-4-smartphones-galore-this-year-will-be-pretty-stable-w.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/02/final-2013-smartphone-market-share-numbers-full-year-and-quarterly-q4-data-by-top-10-brands-plus-os-.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/02/what-does-it-mean-that-nokia-launches-3-smartphones-on-android-now-it-means-desperation-and-that-win.html

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