Yesterday I made quite a sad article about Tizen. Today we’ll have a “Friday Fun” article that will give you some laughs. We already heard the view that “Tizen is dead”, but as a contrast there exists Tomi Ahonen and his odd fixation to MeeGo (a fixation that got redirected to Tizen due to the Intel MeeGo relation). I try to cover it in all its hilarity here:
What I think Intel is now trying very hard to do, is to recruit one significant handset manufacturer to jump into the MeeGo camp, to replace Nokia as the ‘strategic partner’ of Intel, to drive the OS development. Where HTC had tried to buy Palm to get that OS, this could be a very good alternate option for HTC.
The other obvious candidate would be LG.
As a long shot, I could even see Sharp going for it with Intel, or one of the Chinese brands, ZTE, Huawei or Lenovo. Even Motorola could possibly join MeeGo
–Tomi Ahonen, March 10th, 2011 
–Tomi Ahonen, May 3rd, 2011 
Wait a minute… This is May of 2011, we have heard ZERO news about ANYONE (save Nokia) working on a MeeGo phone and Tomi expects to see MeeGo phones from multiple vendors in six months? Is this how much he knows about what it takes to develop a mobile OS? Does he even understand the split between Nokia-owned code and the rest of MeeGo?
But in few months he gets to hear about Samsung and Intel joining forces to combine LiMo and MeeGo to Tizen.
(Yes, the most accurate forecaster in Mobile had “forgot” Samsung from his list. Oops. 🙂 )
What is the verdict now?
It will be very interesting also to see if China Mobile embraces Tizen as openly and strongly as it did with MeeGo. That would be a big boost to Tizen. But what we need now is the first Tizen handset by Samsung, probably out summer to autumn of 2012.
–Tomi Ahonen, October 6th, 2011 
(Try this link for more about the China Mobile.)
Optimism is alive! First Tizen handset comes out in summer (or autumn) 2012! Yes!
Let’s see if Tomi can keep up this optimism in the future:
–Tomi Ahonen, January 13th, 2012 
This is based on a rumor that first devices were planned for August 2012. One should now note that in case of China Mobile Lumias, Tomi made it extremely clear that he NEVER reports rumors as news. If he comments on rumors he makes it extremely clear that those are just rumors and avoids speculation based on those. Only verified news are allowed as his sources.
–Tomi Ahonen, January 13th, 2012 
Oh yes, it “came” much faster.
Oh the speed!
Oh my sides. 😉
Now let’s have the August 2012 come. We get to hear that Samsung not only delays Tizen, but also kills the current Bada OS without having any replacing devices to offer. That I think Tomi has called “Osborning” – if not even “Elop Effect” – and it is something so stupid that nobody – not even a first-grader – does something as stupid as that, right?
As this was not done by Microsoft or Elop, it is not a problem for Tomi. Not only the action of killing Bada and delaying Tizen at the same time is “smart” but thanks to this move Tizen will now outperform iOS by 2015!
–Tomi Ahonen, September 21st, 2012   
Good news, everyone! Tizen will grow bigger than iOS in less than 3 years! (While starting from zero what comes to apps and ecosystem.)
Even better news – we have several phones coming out in early 2013! This will give some comfort for those who feel hurt due to the delay of over half a year so far.
Except that we don’t get to hear about ANYTHING in coming months. After five months it is looking clear that the fabled devices just don’t make it for the first quarter so Tomi revises his view a bit:
–Tomi Ahonen, February 25th, 2013 
So we get the devices probably in July already! It’s a year later than Tomi originally forecasted but better late than never, right?
–Tomi Ahonen, April 5th, 2013 
Waaaaait… Tizen will match Android in Japan after being sold for what? Four months? Five? Quite a success story there… 😮
I definitely cannot blame Tomi for lack of optimism.
How about if if Tizen is delayed again in that very same July the phones were supposed to come out? Delayed until, say… fourth quarter of 2013?
That would be two years after Intel-Samsung alliance was announced. I would assume the general public has gotten it by now?
Tizen is almost dead. It isn’t delay. That’s cancel of the whole project. I doubt that samsung will launch more than one device for 2014
–Eldar Murtazin, July 3rd, 2013 
That’s harsh, yet quite widely accepted in public.
–Tomi Ahonen, July 9th, 2013 
–Tomi Ahonen, July 9th, 2013 
Oh right… Tomi does not work on rumors. I should have remembered that. 🙂
As the time goes by, we pass the fourth quarter of 2013. In January Tomi has to acknowledge that the devices are not coming and lose his faith on Tizen.
At least so one would think.
We should see the first Tizen smartphones from Samsung this Spring and likely sold among first markets in Japan on NTT DoCoMo’s network. My guess is that Samsung wants to create a big spash with its first Tizen device so they are putting extra effort to make it noteworthy.
–Tomi Ahonen, January 4th, 2014 
Personal note: Must be first time ever when someone delays their product to ensure it’s not falling behind of competition. But this is mere two weeks before NTT DoCoMo throws in the towel so perhaps then we can have Tomi finally accept the facts?
Well, kinda. He acknowledges those news but his optimism is not gone. Even three months (and all the horrid news) later he hasn’t gotten over it:
–Tomi Ahonen, April 24th, 2014 
Well, one can have dreams.
When Samsung delays Tizen for undefined time Tomi finally chooses to admit that his optimism just wasn’t going to make it.
In his words “he doesn’t understand Samsung and its troubles with the strategy“, so he needs to find a new reason why Tizen exists and why it did not make it. His proposal:
–Tomi Ahonen, July 4th, 2014 
Wait… Tizen as a leverage to keep Google under control? Who said that?
Oh right, I did. Six months earlier. I think it was:
Tizen is nice leverage towards Google, but Samsung cannot put too much money on Tizen without eating their own piece of Android pie. And they have a big piece.
–Anonymous Ex-Nokian, January 14th, 2014 
I think Tizen is now done for (by Samsung, by Tomi and by me). Let’s go home.
UPDATE January 15th, 2015:
As Samsung launched their first Tizen phone (Samsung Z1) in India, Tomi is back. This is from Twitter and I had to add it:
That is both tablets and smartphones combined, yes. And market will grow to year 2018 (that’s 3 years from now). But even 300M phones would nevertheless mean something like 12%-17% full year market share in smartphones (depending on the growth rate of the smartphone market until 2018). And I seriously doubt Samsung will be able to sell a tablet running anything else than Android, which means even higher numbers.
Considering latest news on Samsung’s profit warning it is totally possible that Samsung does not even have 17% market share in smartphones with ALL of their phones combined in 2018. They could be below that 12% marker even. (First estimate of Q4 2014 sales I’ve encountered would put them to 21% market share whereas Samsung market share was 33.1% in Q3 2013!)
So what comes to “Tizen in optimism”: this is getting delusional.
End of update.