Hi everybody. It seems that I’m stuck at making short posts. This time I’m addressing an issue that could be just a typo. But like in the post I made yesterday, I kind of doubt it.

In the past Tomi Ahonen (author of 12 books on mobile etc.) has kept on insisting that he is the most accurate forecaster on Nokia as he forecasted Nokia market share to be 12% at the end of 2011, whereas the reality was 12.6%.

The validity of that forecast aside, I already pointed out that by that metric the most accurate forecaster is Horace Dediu from Asymco, who not only forecasted 13% but made his forecast before Tomi.

This caught my eye from Tomi’s post, having interesting subtitle “THE TRUE TEST OF AN ANALYST”:

What did Nokia do ten months later, in Q4 of 2011? They sold 19.6 million smartphones (where I said 17M). Market share was 12.4% (when I predicted 12%). The ASP was 140 Euro (when I predicted 116 Euro). The revenues were 2.7 Billion Euro (I predicted 2.0B) and Nokia’s never-before-unprofitable smartphone unit reported yes, continuing losses (as I predicted). No other published analyst in Spring 2011 suggested Nokia’s market share would fall this fast.


In other numbers he was off by up to 35% (which would be revenues) but the interesting number is the market share of 12.4%. Every time so far Tomi has referred to his reported number 12.6% [2] so either there is a typo…
…or then forecast from Horace was too much for Tomi. (Because “no other published analyst” etc.)

I’d say we have to wait until Tomi brags about it the next time to see which number he continues to use.

February 26th 2016
Tomi has indeed kept the stand of new number. I made a blog post about it.


[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/07/the-told-you-so-blog-about-nokia-predictions-and-analysis.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/02/smartphone-final-numbers-2011-all-the-stats-including-q4-by-handset-brands-operating-systems-and-ins.html