Remember when I wrote how Horace Dediu had more accurate forecast than Tomi what comes to Nokia’s market share development in 2011?
Horace forecasted 13%,
reality was 12.6%
The next time Tomi mentioned his forecast skills after my post went live he had new numbers. According to those he forecasted 12% and he now says the reality was 12.4%
Remember when I pointed out that Tomi actually actually is not “rated top Power Influencer in Mobile by Forbes“ (at least not anymore)?
The permanent promoting banner he had on top of front page of his blog disappeared soon after.
I wrote about Tomi’s sales boycott theory and how it does not seem to apply to Finland. Until that he had in his blog commented back to people stating otherwise that yes, there is active boycott of Lumia line ongoing in Finland.
We haven’t heard of that story since.
Then remember when I wrote about Tomi’s epic skills on forecasting sales of original iPhone? He has for years told how he could tell that Apple would sell 10 million iPhones…
…when Apple’s own guidance was 10 million. Usually Tomi has not even mentioned that there even was a number from Apple when he tells how awesome his forecast on Apple was.
Today Tomi wrote a blogpost and in his usual manner told how he is top influencer in mobile, most accurate forecaster blahblah and…
There were many experts of the handset industry back then who said the 10 million mark was impossible to achieve, it would be a world record for a new phone brand. And there were some Apple-fanatics who felt 10 million was too low and Apple would do much more than that. I correctly predicted the 10 million mark, before the first iPhone was sold.
That is not particularly impressive as it was Steve Jobs’s announced target number at the time.
Okay, this is totally unheard of. Tomi actually tells that his forecast is nothing more than number handed by Steve Jobs. I rest my case that Tomi reads this blog.
P.S. Tomi also remembered to add something he has mentioned before but perhaps he needed to highlight it more this time:
“So my ‘prediction’ was more about could Steve Jobs accurately forecast his first year sales than what the market would really be. The truly astonishing forecast by me, was the accurate geographic split of where those first 10 million iPhones would be sold. Nobody else gave a geographic split of iPhone sales before any were even shipped to stores. And I was dead-on with that forecast.”
Is tha true? I don’t know as I haven’t checked. I’m not sure if anyone (save Tomi) gave geographc split of iPhone sales for the first 10M units. Assuming I have time to check that, I will definitely write about it.