Hi gang. Remember when I reported that Tomi had fixed that unfortunate fact that Horace Dediu was more accurate forecaster than he was? The main point was:

  • In February 15 2012 Tomi reported Nokia smartphones market share in Q4 2011 was 12.6% [1]
  • In June 27th 2012 Tomi reported that his forecast of 12% was most accurate of all forecasts (specifically mentioning the actual number being 12.6%). [2]
  • In January 15th 2014 I reported that in fact Horace Dediu forecasted 13% and was more accurate than Tomi.
  • In July 21st 2014 Tomi (once again) told how he was most accurate forecaster, but this time he said the real Nokia result was 12.4% which conveniently puts Tomi’s forecast ahead of Horace. [3]
  • I said that “we have to wait until Tomi brags about it the next time to see which number he continues to use“.

And yesterday I noticed this…

Lumia (Nokia) Smartphone Market Share of Microsoft Recent History

Q4 2011 – 12.4%

Source Official Quarterly Results of Nokia and Microsoft, plus TomiAhonen Consulting analysis of industry data, 27 Oct, 2015

–Tomi Ahonen, October 27th 2015 [4]

Yes, the history has been rewritten (again).


[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/02/smartphone-final-numbers-2011-all-the-stats-including-q4-by-handset-brands-operating-systems-and-ins.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/revised-nokia-2012-market-share-projections-revenues-profits-asps-by-quarter.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/07/the-told-you-so-blog-about-nokia-predictions-and-analysis.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/10/smartphone-wars-lets-do-windows-microsoft-disaster-yes-58m-total-lumia-sold-is-now-market-share-of-1.html