Hi all.

As you know I wrote about Tomi Ahonen’s insane forecast related to the new Nokia-branded smartphones coming from Foxconn-owned company. As Tomi Ahonen remembered to promote his amazing forecast accuracy:
Most accurate forecaster at work
I made this for all the future reference:

CHECKLIST:

All of Tomi’s forecasts:

  • Christmas launch of new Nokia Android smartphones might happen in small volume (source 1)
  • Some of the Nokia X lineup phones could be launched now, at lower prices. (source 1)
  • Tomi is hopeful first Nokia Android smartphones do appear in a few markets in small numbers already for Christmas 2016. (source 5)
  • Spring 2017 will be the actual roll-out of Nokia-branded smartphones (source 1)
  • Nokia will hold onto microSD card slots, removable batteries, NFC, Bluetooth, micro-USB, 3.5mm headphone jack and FM Radio. (source 2)
  • The upcoming portfolio will have several updates to Nokia X lineup. (Source 1)
  • In terms of the design priorities the portfolio will be FAR more similar to what the Symbian based Nokia smartphone portfolio was in 2010 than the Lumia based portfolio of 2012, meaning some of the phones will have visibly different form-factors and they are not “iPhone clones”. (Source 2, Source 3)
  • All Nokia smartphones that are not waterproof should have user-removable battery. (Source 2)
  • Most of the new Nokia Android smartphones will be sold in mid-field price range. (Source 4)
  • Nokia bottom-end Androids will be nearly indistinguishable – on specs – from rival Androids. (Source 3)
  • Mid-price level is where Nokia gets differentiation (like with Xpress Music line with the music oriented details or with cameraphones the Karl Zeiss optics etc). (Source 3)
  • Top Nokia model goes beyond everybody on some specs like Pureview or wireless charging. (Source 3)
  • In the USA new Nokia phones will be seen as a disappointment. (Source 2)
  • In Europe the reception will be mixed but perhaps lukewarm. (Source 2)
  • In Asia, Africa, Latin America the reception will be near ecstatic. (Source 2)
  • Flagship will be out in the Mobile World Congress 2017. It will have large/phablet screen, PureView camera with Carl Zeiss optics and Xenon flash. (source 1, source 2) Price is in 700-800 dollar range.(source 2) Likely the 41mp but they might up it just a bit to 50mp. (source 3)
  • (Also cheaper, smaller sister models may be introduced in MWC 2017) (source 2)
  • By end of 2017 Nokia will have 6 to 8 android models including the flagship. (source 2)
  • More precisely: flagship look-a-likes in 600 dollars, 450 dollars, (a clearly downgraded one at) 300 dollars, (mid-price screen and say 5 or 8 mp Carl Zeiss camera at) 200 dollars price point and 150 and 100 dollars costing models with far more stripped down specs. (source 2)
  • The early quarters of Nokia’s comeback will repeatedly feature the complaints of management that their demand is exceeding supply. (source 4)
  • A brand new Nokia on Android phone will be the featured phone in carrier promotions in the first 6-9 months in essentially all major markets by at least one or two carriers per market. (Source 4)
  • By the end of Q4 2017 Nokia will have 3% market share in smartphones (source 1 )
  • By the end of 2018 Nokia will have at least 12 models (source 2) and up to 20 models. (source 1)
  • At end of Q4 2018 Nokia market share in smartphones will be “well past 5%”. (Source 1)
  • At end of Q4 2018 Nokia brand market share is fighting for the 4th ranking just outside the Top 3 of global smartphone brands. (Source 1)
  • At end of Q2 2019 Nokia market share is 6.3% (source 5)
  • In 2019 Nokia will be challenging Huawei for the Top 3 position in smartphone market share. (Source 1)
  • In 2019 Nokia will have over 20 models. (Source 2)
  • By end of 2019 Nokia market share will be between 7% and 8% (call that 7.5%). (source 5)
  • In full year 2019 Nokia-branded phones will sell 135 to 150 million smartphones globally. (source 1)
  • On “a 2-5 year window” new Nokia/Retronokia will get to a Top 3 position in sold smartphones (Tomi is certain of that). (Source 3)
    (ExNokian comment: that’ll be 2018-2022 depending on where we start counting from)

<UPDATE 03-Jan-2016>
As a separate topic, Mr. Ahonen also predicted that there will be Communicator-line model coming in. More specifically:

  • Tomi thinks we will be seeing it and it will sell like hotcakes. (Source 2)
  • There is enough love for the Communicator style form-factor. Flagship in MWC 2017 will not be a communicator but it would be launched “once Nokia is back on its feet”. (Source 2)
  • It will be a full touch-screen large screen flaship class superphone with slider/folder physical QWERTY keyboard, in the style of the Nokia E7 and the N950. (Source 1)
  • Communicator will also have PureView Camera, phablet screen and a huge keyboard with 5 rows of large keys. (Source 2)
  • Communicator will sell truly regardless of its price. Nokia could price it even at 999 Euros and it would still sell but Tomi hopes it’ll be in the 800-900 dollar range, about 100 dollars above the price of the first flagship. (Source 2)

</UPDATE 03-Jan-2016>

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