Hi all.

As you know I wrote about Tomi Ahonen’s insane forecast related to the new Nokia-branded smartphones coming from Foxconn-owned company. As Tomi Ahonen remembered to promote his amazing forecast accuracy:
Most accurate forecaster at work
I made this for all the future reference:


All of Tomi’s forecasts:

  • Some of the Nokia X lineup phones could possibly be launched now [year 2016], at lower prices. (Source 1)
  • Tomi assumes first Nokia Android smartphones start shipping at the end of this year 2016. (Source 2)
  • To be more exact, Tomi is hopeful first Nokia Android smartphones do appear in a few markets in small numbers already for Christmas 2016. (Source 2)
  • Christmas [2016] launch of new Nokia Android smartphones might happen in small volume (Source 1)
  • Even without Christmas 2016 launch the spring 2017 roll-out of Nokia-branded smartphones should be very feasible (Source 1)
  • Nokia will hold onto microSD card slots, removable batteries, NFC, Bluetooth, micro-USB, 3.5mm headphone jack and FM Radio. (Source 3)
  • One can expect the upcoming portfolio to have several updates to Nokia X lineup. (Source 1)
  • In terms of the design priorities the portfolio will be FAR more similar to what the Symbian based Nokia smartphone portfolio was in 2010 than the Lumia based portfolio of 2012, meaning some of the phones will have visibly different form-factors and they are not “iPhone clones”. (Source 3, Source 4)
  • All Nokia smartphones that are not waterproof should have user-removable battery. (Source 3)
  • Most of the new Nokia Android smartphones will be sold in mid-field price range. (Source 5)
  • Nokia bottom-end Androids will be nearly indistinguishable – on specs – from rival Androids. (Source 4)
  • Mid-price level is where Nokia gets differentiation (like with Xpress Music line with the music oriented details or with cameraphones the Karl Zeiss optics etc). (Source 4)
  • Top Nokia model goes beyond everybody on couple of specs like Pureview or wireless charging. (Source 4)
  • In the USA new Nokia phones will be seen as a disappointment. (Source 3)
  • In Europe the reception will be mixed but perhaps lukewarm. (Source 3)
  • In Asia, Africa, Latin America the reception will be near ecstatic. (Source 3)
  • Tomi thinks the flagship will be out in the Mobile World Congress 2017. It will have a large or a phablet screen, PureView camera with Carl Zeiss optics and Xenon flash. (Source 1, Source 3) Price is in 700-800 dollar range.(Source 3) Likely the 41mp camera sensor but they might up it just a bit to 50mp. (Source 4)
  • (Also cheaper, smaller sister models may be introduced in MWC 2017) (Source 3)
  • One can expect Nokia to have 6 to 8 Android models by end of 2017, including the flagship. (Source 3)
  • More precisely: flagship (could be 600 dollars), a look-a-like in 450 dollars, a clearly downgraded look-a-like at 300 dollars, mid-price screen (and say 5 or 8 mp Carl Zeiss camera) at 200 dollars price point and 150 and 100 dollars costing models with far more stripped down specs. (Source 3)
  • The early quarters of Nokia’s comeback will repeatedly feature the complaints of management that their demand is exceeding supply. (Source 5)
  • A brand new Nokia on Android phone will be the featured phone in carrier promotions in the first 6-9 months in essentially all major markets by at least one or two carriers per market. (Source 5)
  • By the end of Q4 2017 Nokia will have 3% market share in smartphones (Source 1)
  • One can expect Nokia to have at least 12 models (Source 3) and up to 20 models by the end of 2018. (Source 1)
  • Tomi expects that at the end of 2018 Nokia market share in smartphones will get to 5% (Source 2), or “well past 5%”. (Source 1)
  • At end of Q4 2018 Nokia brand market share will be fighting for the 4th ranking just outside the Top 3 of global smartphone brands. (Source 1)
  • Tomi forecasts that at end of Q2 2019 Nokia market share is 6.3% (Source 2)
  • Tomi thinks that in 2019 Nokia will be challenging Huawei for the Top 3 position in smartphone market share. (Source 1)
  • Tomi expects that in 2019 Nokia will have over 20 models. (Source 3)
  • Tomi expects that by end of 2019 Nokia market share will be between 7% and 8% (call that 7.5%). (Source 2)
  • The market share between 7% and 8% at end of year 2019 means that for full year 2019 Nokia-branded phones will sell 135 to 150 million smartphones globally. (Source 1)
  • On “a 2-5 year window” new Nokia/Retronokia will get to a Top 3 position in sold smartphones (Tomi is certain of that). (Source 4)
    (ExNokian comment: that’ll be 2018-2022 depending on where we start counting from)

<UPDATE 03-Jan-2016>
As a separate topic, Mr. Ahonen also predicted that there will be Communicator-line model coming in. More specifically:

  • Tomi thinks we will be seeing it and it will sell like hotcakes. (Source 3)
  • There is enough love for the Communicator style form-factor. Flagship in MWC 2017 will not be a communicator but it would be launched “once Nokia is back on its feet”. (Source 3)
  • It will be a full touch-screen large screen flaship class superphone with slider/folder physical QWERTY keyboard, in the style of the Nokia E7 and the N950. (Source 1)
  • Communicator will also have PureView Camera, phablet screen and a huge keyboard with 5 rows of large keys. (Source 3)
  • Communicator will sell truly regardless of its price. Nokia could price it even at 999 Euros and it would still sell but Tomi hopes it’ll be in the 800-900 dollar range, about 100 dollars above the price of the first flagship. (Source 3)

</UPDATE 03-Jan-2016>

P.S. This post has had some updates on the source links as Tomi actively deletes past comments of people commenting to his blog, which by now (almost a year later) has moved his comments backwards by a page (or two at best). 😉