I’ll start again with a tweet:
–Tomi Ahonen, June 17th, 2015 [1]

So wait… Tomi said in February 2011 that Nokia will be sold to Microsoft?
No he did not. I went through ALL of his blog posts about the subject from February 2011 and not ONCE does he say Nokia would be sold, far less to Microsoft.

In August 2011 Tomi first time mentions the idea. Then he goes to speculate with the idea that if anyone else was to buy Nokia, Microsoft would step in and outbid that company. But he is very clear that Microsoft does not want to buy Nokia:

Microsoft doesn’t want the bloated Nokia as it exists now. They preferred that Elop sell off NokiaSiemens Networks (one half of Nokia’s employees and a third of its revenue). And ideally, also to sell off the dumbphones handset unit.

In a perfect world, he doesn’t really want to own Nokia, Ballmer would prefer that Microsoft makes all the profits in the software and Nokia makes slim profits as a box-mover, just like say Dell was in the PC world as a Windows PC provider.


And as a final nail to the coffin, Tomi wrote a long half-an-hour read blog post [3] (he describied it so) about how there had been talks about Microsoft buying Nokia but that option has been vetoed by Microsoft and it will never happen, Microsoft will not buy Nokia, end of story…
…just one week before Microsoft bought Nokia Devices & Services unit. Tomi’s insights on Nokia/Microsoft relations are indeed beyond my comprehension.


But wait, there is more! I’m sure we can also take Tomi’s current statements of his forecasting accuracy on Nokia (in February 2011) and compare them to what he actually said then?

I predicted accurately not only what was the damage to Nokia and Microsoft, but what was the benefit to Apple, how much the iPhone would gain and how long – and as Apple was not the primary benefactor of the Nokia collapse who was: Samsung. Again, even at such an event that nobody could ‘prepare for’ and the analysis is literally reacting to sudden bizarre news, even then this blog told you BY FAR most accurately what was the effect of Nokia’s pending collapse to Apple and as the iPhone wasn’t the main benefactor, then who was (Samsung). Nobody else gave these facts only days after the Nokia Microsoft partnership was announced.

Tomi Ahonen, September 22, 2014 [4]

Uh… Sorry? Samsung as primary benefactor? Come again?

I never said Blackberry or HTC or SonyEricsson or Motorola or Palm or LG would pass Apple’s iPhone. But I said that Samsung would

Tomi Ahonen, September 22, 2014 [4]

Well that’s a load of bull. Should we see what you Tomi ACTUALLY wrote after Feb 11th about Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry (RIM at the time)?

I find that the big winners of the Nokia Microsoft Windfall will be RIM, Samsung, Apple and HTC in that order.

Tomi Ahonen, February 16, 2011 [5]

Okay, we can see your forecast was that it will be RIM/BlackBerry that is going to feast on Nokia’s demise! Excellent! Want to elaborate a bit?

Likely Split of Nokia Windfall in 2011:
RIM 13 million (26%)
Samsung 11 million (22%)
Apple 8 million (16%)
HTC 6 million (12%)
SonyEricsson 3 million (6%)
LG 3 million (6%)

Tomi Ahonen, February 16, 2011 [5]

So… When you say TODAY that you did not forecast RIM/BlackBerry to be larger than Apple, you lie to us. When you say you forecasted Samsung to be the biggest one, you lie to us. And how exactly did RIM do?
(Image copyright Asymco)

BlackBerry did not become the largest smartphone vendor like Tomi forecasted, they went down the same drain Nokia (and every other brand with non-iOS, non-Android mobile operating system) did. (I could do some nitpicking on the fact that Samsung’s success was supposed to be based on Bada, not Android but… Nah.)

So today Tomi talks about his magnificent Samsung forecast but that is Tomi rewriting the history (again). What did he say in the past?
norespect [6]
(I rest my case.)


[1] https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/611206509100269569

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/08/why-microsoft-cannot-afford-to-let-nokia-fall-into-hands-of-any-rival.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer-aftermath-part-2-impact-to-nokia-especially-lumia-running-windows-phone.html

[4] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/09/time-for-some-told-ya-so-about-iphone-is-anyone-this-accurate.html

[5] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/noki-soft-windfall-who-wins-most-when-micro-kia-hand-away-lucrative-smartphone-empire-bigger-than-bl.html

[6] https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/268782936302710784