In my past post I had gathered all of the forecasts Tomi had made about the future Nokia Android smartphones.
There were supposed to be 6 to 8 models, including the flagship phone.
Those together were to give Nokia 3% market share on Q4 2017.
And tomi gave us a list of what kind of models to expect.

EDIT: the flagship has been compared in another post.

Since Tomi in the past has shown how he knows exactly what kind of phones Nokia needs:

I’ve now gathered together the models Nokia is selling at the end of year 2017. Those are compared to Tomi’s forecast below. I think it is worth mentioning at this point that in his blog Tomi seems to use phablet definition of “5.3 inch screen or larger”. [1][2] Just that you know when there was a hit with the screen sizes and when not.

PORTFOLIO:

Yes, the table sucks. There is an image version behind this link.











Tomi Ahonen forecastClosest match in reality
PriceModelFeaturesModelFeaturesPrice
$800-$700
Possibly $600
Flagship

  • Large/phablet screen
  • 41-50 mpix camera
  • PureView branding
  • Carl Zeiss optics
  • Xenon flash
  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio
  • Not a communicator, i.e. no physical QWERTY keyboard
  • “goes beyond everybody on couple of specs like Pureview or wireless charging”
  • Announced in the Mobile World Congress (beginning of March 2017)

NoneTomi says the Nokia 9 will be the first ‘proper’ flagship. [3]
Tomi forecasts “first real flagship class device from HMD Nokia” will be launched in Mobile World Congress 2018 (a year later than his original forecast). [4]
$450Flagship look-a-like“junior version” of the flagship phone.
Can have worse specs than flagship but should have at least:

  • Carl Zeiss optics
  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio

Nokia 8
(We have to put Nokia 8 here.
Tomi says Nokia 8 is a ‘placeholder’ device, not a proper flagship. [3]
)

  • 5.3 inch (phablet), 2560 x 1440
  • 13 mpix (dual) camera
  • No Pureview
  • LED flash
  • ZEISS Optics
  • Non-removable battery, splash proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • USB-C
  • 3.5mm headphone jack [5]
  • No FM Radio

700 USD [6]
$300Clear downgrade from flagship, non-phablet.

  • Non-phablet screen (less than 5.3 inch)
  • Has a differentiating factor (like XPress music or Carl Zeiss optics)
  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio

Nokia 7

  • 5.2 inch screen, 1920 x 1080
  • Aluminium uniform body
    16 mpix camera, ZEISS optics
  • Non-removable battery, not water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • USB-C
  • 3.5mm headphone jack [7]
  • FM Radio?

377 USD [8]
$300Clear downgrade from flagship, phablet screen version.

  • Phablet screen (5.3 inch or above)
  • Has a differentiating factor (like XPress music or Carl Zeiss optics)
  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio

Nokia 6

  • 5.5 inch screen, 1920 x 1080
  • Aluminium uniform body
    13 mpix camera, No ZEISS optics
  • Non-removable battery, not water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio [9]

229 USD [10]
$200Display cheaper than in $300 model

  • Worse display than in $300 model
  • 5-8mpix camera
  • Carl Zeiss optics
  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio

Nokia 5

  • 5.2 inch screen, 1280 x 720
  • 13 mpix camera
  • No ZEISS optics
  • Non-removable battery, not water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio [11]

200 USD [12]
$150Far more stripped down specs than $200 version but should have:

  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio

Nokia 3

  • 5.0 inch screen, 1280 x 720
  • Aluminium uniform body
  • 8 mpix camera
  • Non-removable battery, not water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio [13]

145 USD [14]
$100Far more stripped down specs than $200 version but should have:

  • Removable battery or water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio
  • (Possibly Nokia X model re-launched with lower price before end of 2016)

Nokia 2

  • 5.0 inch screen, 1280 x 720
  • 8 mpix camera
  • Non-removable battery, not water proof
  • MicroSD card slot
  • No NFC
  • micro-USB
  • 3.5mm headphone jack
  • FM Radio [15]

99 USD [16]

The obvious part next: Yes, I am painfully aware that Nokia 8 was generally taken as flagship. That can be seen in The Verge, TechCrunch, Engadget and The Android Authority – just to name few. Finnish carriers selling the phone call it “The Nokia flagship”. But we’re judging Tomi on the Tomi metrics. If he has decided that Nokia 8 is not the flagship, then it (for this purpose) is not the flagship.

VALIDITY OF THE FORECAST:

For the sake of fairness, Tomi has not lived up to this day insisting that his forecast from 2016 will happen just as he predicted – that would be delusional. The “sales and markeshare” part clearly failed a long time ago. This particular blog post just wanted to highlight whether the portfolio Tomi forecasted was a match to the actual phones released.

I believe Tomi’s forecast on the future portfolio has not changed. Upon the launch of first HMD “New Nokia” Android phones (February 2017), Tomi said those 4 new phones were a “Total Bullseye” that “Will Bring Nokia Brand Back into the Top 10 in Less than 2 Years“. More specifically Tomi gave his revised forecast that the New Nokia Android phones will have 1% global market share by the Christmas Quarter of 2017 and over 2% global market share by Christmas Quarter of 2018, putting New Nokia phones to Top 10 largest smartphone makers in Q4 2018 unit sales. [17]

In sum: Tomi did revise his sales and marketshare forecasts (also giving his unasked for advice towards HMD to “make a Nokia 8 as their first flagship” – just funny considering what we read about Tomi saying that Nokia 8 is not a proper flagship – a “Nokia 2 to pursue the lower end of the Android family” and a “Retro Communicator“). [17]
Tomi also asked for the 50 mpix Pureview camera in a sexy black all-metal expensive-seeming camera body with an ever-trusting “if you haven’t finalized 808 Pureview Retro phone yet” – remark but it was unclear whether Tomi still expected that to be in the “Nokia 8 flagship phone” he asked for or as a separate device.

Tomi revised his forecast after he had seen the first four New Nokia phones and his text about the phone portfolio was still perfectly aligned to what I had in my past blog post of Tomi’s forecasts.Therefore I assume Tomi had not revised the content of the new phones portfolio and we can stick to his original forecasts, what comes to the portfolio.

ACCURACY OF THE FORECAST:

The big question: was this an accurate forecast? Was this “the most accurate forecast“?
Good question. I’ll answer with an equally good question:

If we would use Samsung Android phone portfolio to fill in the right side of the table, would it be equally accurate?

Because – how is the part of the list where Tomi got his forecast right in any way exceptional compared to any other smartphone brand?
The differentiators would have been the two HMD staples: uniform metallic body (not forecasted by Tomi) and pure Android that gets timely updates (not forecasted by Tomi either).

REFERENCES:

[1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/what-do-we-want-duelling-stats-about-what-drives-smartphone-purchases.html

[2] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2017/01/are-we-near-peak-screen-size-for-smartphone-screen-growth-is-6-inches-too-big.html

[3] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2017/08/q2-smartphone-market-top-10-numbers.html

[4] https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/943624187675136001 (screen capture)

[5] http://www.nokia.com/fi_fi/phones/nokia-8

[6] http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2473295/nokia-8-price-release-date-specs-its-official

[7] https://www.nokia.com/zh_int/phones/nokia-7

[8] https://nokiapoweruser.com/nokia-7-launched-in-china-full-specs-price-release-date-photos-all-that-you-need-to-know/

[9] http://www.nokia.com/fi_fi/phones/nokia-6

[10] http://nordic.businessinsider.com/nokia-6-android-smartphone-us-launch-specs-price-2017-6

[11] http://www.nokia.com/fi_fi/phones/nokia-5

[12] http://www.phonecorridor.com/2017/02/nokia-5-price-specs-us-uk-nigeria/

[13] http://www.nokia.com/fi_fi/phones/nokia-3

[14] http://gazettereview.com/2017/02/nokia-3-5-6-specs-release-date-price/

[15] https://www.nokia.com/en_int/phones/nokia-2

[16] https://www.mtv.fi/lifestyle/digi/artikkeli/nokia-2-julki-tallainen-on-toistaiseksi-edullisin-uusi-nokia-alypuhelin/6639080

[17] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2017/02/return-of-the-jedi-this-hmd-will-bring-nokia-brand-back-into-the-top-10-in-less-than-2-years-total-b.html