I wrote over a year ago about the forecasts Tomi Ahonen made about the new HMD Nokia phones. In fact I made it to a checklist. And what fun is a checklist for if you don’t…
LET’S ADD THE CHECK MARKS!
Let me explain the symbols used:
|Partially successful forecast/promise/expectation. (see *n)|
|Not enough data to say yet if the forecast/promise/expectation failed or not.|
|Not enough data, currently seems to succeed.|
|Not enough data, currently seems to fail.|
|Impossible to tell if this was success or not. (see *n)|
|*n)||Extra info number “n” at the end of post.|
Then we can look at how Tomi did:
|Some of the Nokia X lineup phones could possibly be launched now [year 2016], at lower prices.|
|Even without Christmas 2016 launch the spring 2017 roll-out of Nokia-branded smartphones should be very feasible|
|*2)||Nokia will hold onto microSD card slots, removable batteries, NFC, Bluetooth, micro-USB, 3.5mm headphone jack and FM Radio.|
|One can expect the upcoming portfolio to have several updates to Nokia X lineup.|
|*3)||In terms of the design priorities the portfolio will be FAR more similar to what the Symbian based Nokia smartphone portfolio was in 2010 than the Lumia based portfolio of 2012, meaning some of the phones will have visibly different form-factors and they are not “iPhone clones”.|
|All Nokia smartphones that are not waterproof should have user-removable battery.|
|Most of the new Nokia Android smartphones will be sold in mid-field price range.|
|Nokia bottom-end Androids will be nearly indistinguishable – on specs – from rival Androids.|
|Mid-price level is where Nokia gets differentiation (like with Xpress Music line with the music oriented details or with cameraphones the Karl Zeiss optics etc).|
|Top Nokia model goes beyond everybody on couple of specs like Pureview or wireless charging.|
|*4)||In the USA new Nokia phones will be seen as a disappointment.|
|*4)||In Europe the reception will be mixed but perhaps lukewarm.|
|*4)||In Asia, Africa, Latin America the reception will be near ecstatic.|
|Tomi thinks the flagship will be out in the Mobile World Congress 2017.|
|Flagship will have a large or a phablet screen, PureView camera with Carl Zeiss optics and Xenon flash. Price is in 700-800 dollar range. Likely the 41mp camera sensor but they might up it just a bit to 50mp. (separate post here)|
|*5)||(Also cheaper, smaller sister models may be introduced in MWC 2017)|
|One can expect Nokia to have 6 to 8 Android models by end of 2017…|
|…including the flagship.|
|*7)||The early quarters of Nokia’s comeback will repeatedly feature the complaints of management that their demand is exceeding supply.|
|*8)||A brand new Nokia on Android phone will be the featured phone in carrier promotions in the first 6-9 months in essentially all major markets by at least one or two carriers per market.|
|By the end of Q4 2017 Nokia will have 3% market share in smartphones|
|*9)||One can expect Nokia to have at least 12 models and up to 20 models by the end of 2018.|
|Tomi expects that at the end of 2018 Nokia market share in smartphones will get to 5%, or “well past 5%”.|
|At end of Q4 2018 Nokia brand market share will be fighting for the 4th ranking just outside the Top 3 of global smartphone brands.|
|Tomi forecasts that at end of Q2 2019 Nokia market share is 6.3%|
|Tomi thinks that in 2019 Nokia will be challenging Huawei for the Top 3 position in smartphone market share.|
|Tomi expects that in 2019 Nokia will have over 20 models.|
|Tomi expects that by end of 2019 Nokia market share will be between 7% and 8% (call that 7.5%).|
|For full year 2019 Nokia-branded phones will sell 135 to 150 million smartphones globally.|
|On “a 2-5 year window” new Nokia/Retronokia will get to a Top 3 position in sold smartphones (Tomi is certain of that).|
|Tomi thinks we will be seeing a Communicator and it will sell like hotcakes. There is enough love for the Communicator style form-factor.|
|*10)||Flagship in MWC 2017 will not be a communicator but it would be launched “once Nokia is back on its feet”.|
|Communicator will be a full touch-screen large screen flaship class superphone with slider/folder physical QWERTY keyboard, in the style of the Nokia E7 and the N950.|
|Communicator will also have PureView Camera, phablet screen and a huge keyboard with 5 rows of large keys.|
|Communicator will sell truly regardless of its price. Nokia could price it even at 999 Euros and it would still sell but Tomi hopes it’ll be in the 800-900 dollar range, about 100 dollars above the price of the first flagship.|
*1) Three separate forecasts that all failed but as they are about same thing, counted as one item only.
*2) Mostly true. However not fully: none of the new Nokia models have removable batteries, some use USB-C, Nokia 8 lacks FM-Radio and Nokia 2 does not have NFC.
*3) Nothing so far has indicated that the portfolio would have anything else than monoblock touchscreen phones.
*4) How should we tell what the reception has been on the other side of the globe? Links to news articles? How can we tell those represent the general acceptance there? I don’t really know how to verify this in one way or another.
*5) Cheaper phones were presented but those could not be “sister models” as there was no flagship shown. (Tomi says “Nokia 9” will be the flagship.)
*6) See separate post: (click here)
*7) That’s what they said to press: “[HMD] has learned from early year delivery problems. According to Korpela the demand of earlier models [3, 5, 6] came as a surprise to HMD. The demand was unprecedented but Nokia 8 has been done in a different manner.”
*8) What exactly is “the featured phone in carrier promotions”? For his blog post Tomi counted any advertisement that shows BOTH carrier logo AND Nokia HMD phone as a “carrier-paid Nokia promotion”, regardless of whether there are Samsung, Huawei or Apple phones in same advertisement (or even in the same picture). But if that counts, then I think this probably was a hit.
*9) Since Nokia has announced new Nokia 6 (2018) reusing old model number, it seems theoretical maximum number of different models at any given time is 9, assuming “Nokia 0” is not used. (Or 8 models because “Nokia 4” will probably never be launched due to bad associations the number 4 causes in China.)
*10) No flagship in MWC. Even if Communicator would be launched, this can never be full success.